Matthew Ellis

C Everett AquaSox

Age 26 L/R 6'4" / 248 lbs A+ K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	24	A+SEA	78	.229/.308/.343	1	0	26	—	.153/.218/.236
2025	24	AModesto Nuts	260	.238/.391/.421	8	3	91	—	.204/.318/.362
2026	25	A+SEA	339	.247/.376/.470	17	2	75	—	.192/.290/.354
2026	25	INTLPeoria Javeli…	38	.172/.368/.414	2	1	128	—
2027PROJ0% MLB	26	MLBSEA	1	.203/.297/.352	0	0	87	0.0
2028PROJ33% MLB	27	MLBSEA	49	.204/.297/.352	1	1	87	0.1
2029PROJ49% MLB	28	MLBSEA	119	.204/.296/.350	4	1	86	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Chase%84

BB%83

ISO80

wOBA72

wRC+67

K%27

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsZack Collins (age 27) · Matt Lloyd (age 26) · Trevor Hauver (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†87

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .297 / .352

PA1

HR0

K%33

BB%10

BABIP278

ISO159

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	24	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	78	70	16	5	0	1	6	25	2	0	0	229	308	343	651	114	341	32	8	298	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A	Modesto Nuts	—	260	202	48	11	1	8	49	54	4	3	1	238	391	421	812	183	282	21	19	365	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	339	279	69	11	0	17	54	98	4	2	1	247	376	470	845	222	315	29	16	375	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	38	29	5	1	0	2	8	16	1	1	0	172	368	414	782	241	273	42	21	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	78	72	11	3	0	1	4	35	2	0	0	153	218	236	454	83	297	45	5	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	260	221	45	9	1	8	33	70	4	3	1	204	318	362	680	158	248	27	13	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	339	297	57	9	0	13	37	132	4	2	1	192	290	354	643	162	280	39	11	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	338	293	56	12	1	9	37	105	6	3	1	191	295	331	626	140	260	31	11	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A RAW	2 teams	—	338	272	64	16	1	9	55	79	6	3	1	235	372	401	773	165	296	23	16	349	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	377	330	62	9	0	14	41	147	5	3	1	188	287	342	630	155	282	39	11	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	377	308	74	12	0	19	62	114	5	3	1	240	375	464	839	224	312	30	16	373	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	338	292	56	12	1	9	37	105	6	3	1	192	295	332	627	140	259	31	11	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	377	328	62	9	0	14	41	147	5	3	1	189	287	345	632	155	280	39	11	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	338	292	56	12	1	9	37	105	6	3	1	192	295	332	627	140	259	31	11	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	377	328	62	9	0	14	41	147	5	3	1	189	287	345	632	155	280	39	11	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SEA	0%	380	333	68	13	1	12	40	123	4	5	1	205	299	358	657	153	281	32	11	296	87	-6	+1	+0	+7	+8	0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	26	MLB CTX	SEA	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	203	297	352	650	150	278	0	0	293	87	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SEA	33%	150	131	27	5	0	5	16	48	2	2	1	206	299	358	657	152	281	32	11	296	87	-2	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	SEA	49%	241	211	43	8	1	7	25	77	3	3	1	206	298	356	654	150	280	32	10	295	86	-4	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	SEA	56%	294	259	54	10	1	9	30	93	3	3	1	206	296	352	648	146	279	32	10	293	84	-6	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	SEA	59%	327	288	59	11	1	9	33	103	3	3	2	205	294	347	641	142	278	31	10	290	82	-7	-0	-2	+6	+7	0.4
2032	31	MLB MLE	SEA	61%	327	288	59	11	1	9	33	103	3	2	4	203	290	340	630	137	275	31	10	285	79	-8	-1	-3	+6	+7	0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	SEA	33%	49	43	8	2	0	1	5	16	1	1	0	204	297	352	650	149	278	33	10	293	87	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	SEA	49%	119	105	21	4	0	4	12	38	1	1	0	204	296	350	646	146	278	32	10	292	86	-2	+0	-0	+2	+3	0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	SEA	56%	163	143	29	5	0	5	17	52	2	2	1	204	294	347	641	143	277	32	10	290	84	-3	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	SEA	59%	194	170	34	6	1	5	20	61	2	2	1	203	292	342	634	139	275	31	10	287	82	-4	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.2
2032	31	MLB CTX	SEA	61%	201	177	35	7	0	5	20	63	2	1	2	200	288	335	623	134	273	31	10	283	79	-5	-1	-2	+4	+4	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	726	638	127	24	1	20	74	230	8	7	4	199	290	334	624	135	273	32	10	288	81	-15	-0	-4	+13	+16	1.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	571	113	21	1	18	66	206	7	6	4	198	289	333	622	135	271	32	10	288	81	-13	-0	-4	+12	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	2198	1926	386	71	5	67	230	723	27	21	12	200	295	347	641	146	278	33	10	288	81	-29	-1	-7	+26	+32	2.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	570	114	21	1	20	68	214	8	6	4	200	294	346	640	146	277	33	10	288	81	-13	-0	-3	+12	+14	1.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#2Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Red Kleinow'04-'11 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,875 PA	2.8	1,875	3	42	219*	299*	350*	+33	-1	4.3	4.4
/162	664	1	15	+11.5	-0.2	1.5	pk7: 4
#5Gabby Street'04-'31 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,677 PA	2.5	1,677	2	17	210*	281*	325*	+30	+0	3.1	3.3
/162	664	1	7	+11.8	+0.0	1.2	pk7: 3
#6Paul Richards'32-'46 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	15	15	218*	296*	337*	+29	+0	2.3	2.5
/162	664	6	6	+11.9	+0.0	1.0	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.1	726	21	6	206	292	350	+13	+12	1.7	1.7
/162	664	19	6	+11.9	+11.0	1.5	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matthew Ellis (OGILVIE)	26	40	45	40	60	203/297/355	152	281	5	2	32%	11%	87	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Zack Collins 2022 · MLB	27	43→42	49→50	44→40	52	211/307/361	149	295	16	4	32%	12%	91	+0.7	198/284/337	139	295	15	6	35%	10%	77	-0.3	182/269/315	133	275	15	5	37%	10%	66	-0.7
✕Matt Lloyd 2022 · AA	26	43→42	53→45	43→50	41	221/289/386	165	313	21	7	35%	7%	91	+0.6	212/279/344	132	297	15	10	32%	7%	76	-0.4	205/275/320	116	273	13	12	28%	8%	69	-0.5
✕Trevor Hauver 2024 · AA	25	42→49	48→50	43→40	50	205/300/347	143	300	15	3	34%	11%	85	+0.2	222/303/349	127	321	12	4	32%	10%	86	+0.3	222/302/336	114	319	10	3	31%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Isan Díaz 2021 · MLB	25	44→43	51→55	44→45	44	223/291/382	159	296	18	8	30%	8%	90	+0.6	213/286/370	157	282	19	7	30%	9%	85	+0.2	192/269/361	169	236	25	8	31%	9%	74	-0.2
✕Adam Witter 2009 · AA	26	40→39	52→50	39→30	46	213/280/375	162	266	20	3	28%	8%	84	+0.1	204/261/334	130	261	15	5	27%	7%	67	-1.1	165/214/271	106	203	14	0	27%	6%	34	-1.6
✕Alex Isola 2024 · AA	26	44	49→50	44→40	47	224/291/365	141	278	17	5	26%	8%	86	+0.3	208/271/321	113	264	12	8	25%	7%	68	-1.0	174/240/261	87	216	9	6	24%	7%	42	-1.7
✕Riley Adams 2023 · MLB	27	41→44	49→50	42→40	43	207/293/356	149	296	16	3	34%	8%	85	+0.2	225/295/377	152	314	16	4	32%	7%	90	+0.6	218/287/365	147	309	16	2	33%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Paul McIntosh 2024 · AAA	26	42→43	49→45	45	47	215/296/360	145	278	17	8	28%	9%	87	+0.4	216/284/339	123	270	14	6	25%	7%	77	-0.3	209/277/327	118	257	13	4	23%	7%	69	-0.5
●Ryan Schimpf 2014 · AA	26	36→41	52→60	44→45	47	194/276/360	166	255	20	5	32%	9%	80	-0.2	203/279/394	191	250	23	4	29%	8%	88	+0.5	203/284/421	218	238	27	2	28%	8%	96	+0.8
✕Trey Hair 2022 · A	27	44	52→55	44→45	39	226/294/386	160	314	21	8	34%	6%	92	+0.7	221/275/401	180	283	24	7	31%	6%	88	+0.5	198/243/418	220	221	33	3	30%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Andy Yerzy 2024 · AA	26	38	49→50	49→40	47	197/281/343	146	263	18	6	31%	9%	78	-0.3	191/256/297	106	275	12	6	33%	8%	57	-1.8	143/211/218	74	223	10	2	39%	7%	19	-1.3
✕Hunter Feduccia 2023 · AAA	26	42→50	50	47→40	46	216/280/365	150	273	18	3	28%	8%	82	-0.0	234/312/363	129	309	12	3	26%	10%	93	+0.8	239/325/358	119	315	10	2	25%	11%	94	+0.6
✕Chance Sisco 2021 · MLB	26	45→55	51→50	43→40	48	227/330/389	162	308	20	3	31%	10%	107	+1.8	204/290/339	135	275	14	5	29%	9%	80	-0.2	160/246/269	109	216	9	0	29%	8%	46	-1.1
✕Ian Rice 2019 · AA	25	41→40	48→50	44→30	49	209/298/350	141	280	16	3	30%	10%	85	+0.2	200/274/302	102	285	10	5	31%	8%	65	-1.2	158/229/219	60	230	5	0	31%	7%	30	-1.7
✕Travis Scott 2010 · A	25	44	51→55	47→40	43	226/280/391	165	285	18	4	28%	7%	87	+0.4	213/266/345	132	275	14	6	27%	6%	71	-0.8	201/256/327	126	234	17	3	22%	5%	61	-0.3
✕Scott Manea 2022 · AA	26	46→42	46→45	36→30	47	227/308/354	127	299	15	4	28%	9%	90	+0.6	209/291/306	97	305	8	5	31%	9%	72	-0.7	176/269/247	71	269	5	0	33%	9%	48	-1.4
✕Drew Ellis 2022 · MLB	26	41→38	53→55	45→40	48	212/303/389	177	276	20	3	30%	9%	96	+1.0	198/288/359	161	255	18	6	28%	10%	84	+0.1	180/274/332	152	226	17	6	28%	10%	70	-0.5
✕Erik Ostberg 2022 · AA	26	42	48→50	42→45	39	212/268/348	136	303	18	4	35%	6%	73	-0.6	199/257/332	133	281	15	7	33%	7%	65	-1.2	168/228/301	133	229	15	7	33%	7%	45	-0.8
✕Luis Torrens 2022 · MLB	26	46→49	53→50	45→40	46	238/296/411	173	288	21	3	25%	8%	98	+1.2	233/287/378	145	304	17	3	28%	7%	87	+0.4	235/293/375	140	282	15	2	22%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Brett Cumberland 2021 · AA	26	43→41	45	45→30	46	211/304/338	128	296	13	4	31%	9%	85	+0.2	195/300/300	105	299	11	5	36%	8%	76	-0.4	164/284/254	90	261	11	1	37%	8%	58	-0.7

Matthew Ellis

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps