Luis Alvarez

P St. Lucie Mets

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 185 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECTFG #894

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ROKNYM	7	2	11	4.22	3.10	32.1%	21.4%	—	K 21.9% · BB 26.8% · FIP 4.65
2025	22	MIX2 levels	18	0	27	4.67	3.29	29.5%	13.9%	—	K 20.4% · BB 16.2% · FIP 4.97
2026	23	ANYM	19	0	25	7.92	6.74	32.3%	21.5%	—	K 23.9% · BB 25.4% · FIP 8.14
2027PROJ	24	MLBNYM	86	0	90	5.68	5.68	25.1%	20.0%	-1.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBNYM	37	0	39	5.40	5.30	25.3%	17.3%	-0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBNYM	57	0	60	5.25	5.19	25.3%	16.6%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff60Command30FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsCaleb Simpson (age 25) · Craig Schlitter (age 24) · Brandon Johnson (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.68

FIP5.68

K%25.1%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%5.0%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5560

CMD2030

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 1	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 1	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	10	0	10	62	10	13	0	0%	1.0	11.0%	26.2%	-15.2%	0.0%	13.97	5.49	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	10	0	10	62	10	13	0	0%	1.0	16.1%	21.0%	-4.8%	0.0%	13.97	5.07	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	7	2	11	56	18	12	0	29%	1.5	21.9%	26.8%	-4.9%	0.0%	4.22	4.65	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	7	2	11	56	18	12	0	29%	1.5	21.9%	26.8%	-4.9%	0.0%	4.22	4.65	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	7	2	11	56	18	12	0	29%	1.5	32.1%	21.4%	10.7%	0.0%	4.22	3.10	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	27	122	36	17	2	0%	1.5	20.4%	16.2%	4.1%	2.8%	4.67	4.97	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	27	122	36	17	2	0%	1.5	20.4%	16.2%	4.1%	2.8%	4.67	4.97	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	27	122	36	17	2	0%	1.5	29.5%	13.9%	15.6%	1.6%	4.67	3.29	—
2026	23	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	19	0	25	130	42	28	7	0%	1.3	23.9%	25.4%	-1.5%	7.0%	7.92	8.14	—
2026	23	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	19	0	25	130	42	28	7	0%	1.3	23.9%	25.4%	-1.5%	7.0%	7.92	8.14	—
2026	23	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	19	0	25	130	42	28	7	0%	1.3	32.3%	21.5%	10.8%	5.4%	7.92	6.74	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	NYM	86	0	90	380	95	76	12	0%	1.0	25.1%	20.0%	5.0%	3.3%	5.68	5.68	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYM	87	0	91	385	97	67	12	0%	1.0	25.3%	17.3%	8.0%	3.2%	5.40	5.30	-0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYM	87	0	91	385	97	64	12	0%	1.0	25.3%	16.6%	8.8%	3.2%	5.25	5.19	-0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYM	85	0	90	379	95	61	12	0%	1.1	25.2%	16.2%	9.0%	3.2%	5.19	5.19	-0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYM	83	0	87	367	92	59	12	0%	1.0	25.0%	16.1%	8.8%	3.3%	5.21	5.25	-0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYM	79	0	83	351	87	57	12	0%	1.1	24.7%	16.4%	8.4%	3.5%	5.31	5.38	-0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYM	74	0	78	330	87	52	12	0%	1.1	26.4%	15.9%	10.5%	3.7%	5.29	5.28	-0.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYM	37	0	39	165	42	29	5	0%	1.1	25.3%	17.3%	8.0%	3.2%	5.40	5.30	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYM	57	0	60	253	64	42	8	0%	1.1	25.3%	16.6%	8.8%	3.2%	5.25	5.19	-0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYM	66	0	69	291	73	47	9	0%	1.0	25.2%	16.2%	9.0%	3.2%	5.19	5.19	-0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYM	70	0	73	308	77	50	10	0%	1.0	25.0%	16.1%	8.8%	3.3%	5.21	5.25	-0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYM	70	0	73	308	76	50	11	0%	1.0	24.7%	16.4%	8.4%	3.5%	5.31	5.38	-0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYM	67	0	70	296	78	47	11	0%	1.0	26.4%	15.9%	10.5%	3.7%	5.29	5.28	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		366	0	385	1624	411	265	55	0%	1.1	25.3%	16.3%	9.0%	3.4%	5.27	4.88	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	214	138	29	0%	1.1	25.3%	16.3%	9.0%	3.4%	5.27	4.88	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		55	2	73	373	76	84	13	4%	1.3	20.4%	22.5%	-2.2%	3.4%	6.87	6.08	-4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		150	5	200	1017	207	229	34	4%	1.3	20.4%	22.5%	-2.2%	3.4%	6.87	6.08	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Alvarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.68	25.1%	20.0%	3.3%	—	5.23	25.3%	8.6%	272	-0.45	—	—	—
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	87
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	83
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	82
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	82
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	81
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	80
Eric Cerantola R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	24	SW	4.65	25.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.245	3.74	26.2%	15.9%	100	-0.91	3.37	270	80
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	80
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.06	19.2%	3.8%	102	-0.66	3.74	203	80
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	24	SU	4.59	24.1%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	79
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	79
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	79
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.54	19.0%	8.4%	155	-0.01	3.33	268	79
Spencer Mraz R 2022 · 5.62 FIP	24	SU	5.62	21.5%	18.4%	3.6%	.295	4.68	15.1%	-4.2%	35	-0.94	3.61	155	78
Yunior Montero R 2017 · 5.21 FIP	24	SU	5.21	21.3%	17.6%	3.1%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	127	78
Antonio Knowles R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	20.9%	15.1%	2.4%	.250	3.28	20.9%	11.7%	66	-1.30	3.24	223	78
Josh Graham R 2018 · 4.80 FIP	24	SU	4.80	20.4%	15.1%	2.8%	.327	4.35	18.0%	10.1%	70	-0.45	2.15	254	78
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	78
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	78
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	87	25.3%	17.0%	1.29	5.33
George Smith ('26-'30, -3 WAR*)	1.7	66	22.6%*	14.5%*	1.13*	5.29*
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
John D'Acquisto ('73-'82, -3 WAR*)	3.9	97	25.1%*	15.1%*	0.92*	5.36*
Dan Warthen ('75-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.5	102	24.8%*	14.2%*	1.27*	4.86*
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82