Luis Alvarez
P
St. Lucie Mets
Age 23
RHP
6'5" / 185 lbs
A
2026 ROS PROJECTION19 act + 90 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135126vR 116
ERA5.14
FIP5.14
K%23.3%
BB%15.7%
K-BB%7.6%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 109 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.29 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | DSL Mets Orange | 10 | 0 | 10 | 62 | 10 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.0% | 26.2% | -15.2% | 0.0% | 13.97 | 5.49 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | DSL Mets Orange | 10 | 0 | 10 | 62 | 10 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.1% | 21.0% | -4.8% | 0.0% | 13.97 | 5.07 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | FCL Mets | 7 | 2 | 11 | 56 | 18 | 12 | 0 | 29% | 1.5 | 21.9% | 26.8% | -4.9% | 0.0% | 4.22 | 4.65 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | FCL Mets | 7 | 2 | 11 | 56 | 18 | 12 | 0 | 29% | 1.5 | 32.1% | 21.4% | 10.7% | 0.0% | 4.22 | 3.10 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 0 | 27 | 122 | 36 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.4% | 16.2% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 5.28 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 0 | 27 | 122 | 36 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 29.5% | 13.9% | 15.6% | 1.6% | 4.67 | 3.29 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 15 | 0 | 19 | 102 | 33 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.9% | 25.5% | -1.5% | 5.1% | 6.05 | 7.10 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYM | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 89 | 60 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 15.7% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 5.14 | 5.14 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.3% | 15.7% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 5.14 | 5.14 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 109 | 482 | 122 | 82 | 15 | — | — | 25.2% | 17.0% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 5.30 | 5.49 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 88 | 0 | 92 | 389 | 94 | 55 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 14.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.93 | 4.84 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 98 | 52 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.67 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 99 | 50 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.61 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 40 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 14.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.93 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 65 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 70 | 0 | 74 | 312 | 78 | 40 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.0% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 167 | 0 | 175 | 740 | 183 | 98 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.7% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.75 | 4.30 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 209 | 112 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.75 | 4.30 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 51 | 2 | 68 | 345 | 69 | 77 | 9 | 4% | 1.3 | 20.1% | 22.3% | -2.2% | 2.7% | 6.25 | 5.71 | -0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 151 | 6 | 200 | 1020 | 205 | 228 | 27 | 4% | 1.3 | 20.1% | 22.3% | -2.2% | 2.7% | 6.25 | 5.71 | -0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Alvarez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.14 | 23.3% | 15.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.71 | 24.7% | 11.4% | 279 | -0.43 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Johnson R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 87 |
| Carlos Contreras R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.30 | 22.2% | 15.6% | 2.0% | .271 | 4.65 | 11.9% | 2.4% | 40 | +0.35 | 4.30 | 107 | 87 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 87 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.91 | 23.1% | 15.9% | 3.2% | .278 | 3.58 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 53 | -1.33 | 3.58 | 104 | 86 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.50 | 22.0% | 14.8% | 2.5% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 146 | 85 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.8% | 13.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 4.97 | 21.1% | 5.4% | 115 | +0.89 | 4.08 | 168 | 85 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.4% | .331 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.06 | 3.44 | 213 | 85 |
| Pat Light R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 20.9% | 14.5% | 2.1% | .270 | 4.39 | 16.4% | 2.8% | 110 | +0.05 | 4.11 | 172 | 84 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2028 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 23.7% | 17.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 23.5% | 5.1% | 71 | -1.37 | 3.28 | 197 | 84 |
| Matt Brill R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.94 | 20.8% | 16.3% | 2.8% | .248 | 3.84 | 19.4% | 4.9% | 60 | -1.10 | 3.75 | 161 | 84 |
| James Acuna R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.89 | 21.3% | 17.0% | 2.6% | .302 | 4.23 | 19.4% | 4.6% | 60 | -0.66 | 4.23 | 107 | 84 |
| Jhondaniel Medina R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.54 | 19.3% | 13.9% | 2.4% | .261 | 5.50 | 19.3% | 4.4% | 35 | +0.96 | 4.45 | 167 | 83 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.18 | 22.1% | 15.2% | 1.9% | .314 | 4.59 | 18.2% | 2.0% | 53 | +0.41 | 4.18 | 103 | 83 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 83 |
| CJ Weins R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.42 | 24.7% | 15.9% | 2.5% | .276 | 5.59 | 16.8% | -2.7% | 73 | +1.17 | 4.42 | 113 | 83 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2028 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 83 |
| Sal Biasi R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.19 | 20.1% | 15.8% | 3.3% | .295 | 7.85 | 15.3% | -0.2% | 23 | +2.66 | 4.68 | 188 | 83 |
| Max Alba R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 82 |
| Bailey Dees R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.23 | 21.3% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .248 | 4.32 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 278 | +0.09 | 3.40 | 330 | 82 |
| Tommy Kahnle R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.00 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 1.9% | .284 | 2.56 | 30.9% | 21.0% | 165 | -1.44 | 1.52 | 452 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 92 | 24.3% | 13.9% | 1.15 | 4.86 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |