Jonney Rosario prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jonney Rosario P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 22 RHP 5'10" / 185 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

K%22.9%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	13	0	24	122	32	17	5	0%	1.9	17.8%	17.4%	0.4%	4.8%	9.62	6.43	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	13	0	24	122	32	17	5	0%	1.9	26.2%	13.9%	12.3%	4.1%	9.62	5.24	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	12	11	52	219	53	15	4	92%	4.3	16.5%	8.6%	7.9%	2.6%	4.01	4.23	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	12	11	52	219	53	15	4	92%	4.3	24.2%	6.8%	17.4%	1.8%	4.01	2.93	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	13	3	34	151	39	16	2	23%	2.6	17.6%	13.2%	4.3%	2.0%	5.08	4.41	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	13	3	34	151	39	16	2	23%	2.6	17.6%	13.2%	4.3%	2.0%	5.08	4.41	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	13	3	34	151	39	16	2	23%	2.6	25.8%	10.6%	15.2%	1.3%	5.08	2.98	—
2024	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	1	0	1	9	1	4	0	0%	1.0	11.1%	44.4%	-33.3%	0.0%	9.00	7.79	—
2024	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	1	0	1	9	1	4	0	0%	1.0	11.1%	44.4%	-33.3%	0.0%	9.00	7.79	—
2024	20	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	1	0	1	9	1	4	0	0%	1.0	11.1%	44.4%	-33.3%	0.0%	9.00	13.10	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.9%	10.6%	12.3%	3.0%	4.53	4.53	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SD	20	0	21	88	21	9	3	0%	1.0	23.6%	9.8%	13.8%	2.9%	4.41	4.34	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	SD	10	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.0	23.6%	9.8%	13.8%	2.9%	4.41	4.34	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	43	10	4	1	0%	1.0	23.7%	9.8%	13.9%	2.9%	4.41	3.96	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	196	78	20	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.8%	13.9%	2.9%	4.41	3.96	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		39	14	111	501	85	64	15	36%	2.8	17.0%	12.8%	4.3%	2.9%	5.61	4.88	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	25	200	905	154	116	26	36%	2.8	17.0%	12.8%	4.3%	2.9%	5.61	4.88	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonney Rosario (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	22.9%	10.6%	3.0%	—	4.34	23.6%	13.8%	21	-0.19	—	—	—
Carson Rudd R 2021 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	25.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.351	5.24	21.6%	5.6%	193	+1.85	3.39	242	83
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	83
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	82
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	80
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	80
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	80
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	80
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	79
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	79
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	79
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	78
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	78
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	78
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.10	24.4%	11.8%	56	+0.75	2.93	103	78
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	77
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	77
Daniel Bies R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	22	SW	3.96	24.5%	6.8%	3.8%	.339	3.17	20.3%	11.0%	89	-0.79	3.17	115	77
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	77
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	77
Franco Aleman R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	22	SW	3.95	21.3%	8.2%	2.9%	.391	2.98	28.9%	18.9%	114	-0.97	2.28	226	77