Fidel Montero — OGILVIE

Fidel Montero P ACL White Sox

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 178 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.2 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%21.6%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	16	1	29	128	34	15	0	6%	1.8	18.1%	14.6%	3.4%	0.0%	4.40	3.43	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	16	1	29	128	34	15	0	6%	1.8	18.1%	14.6%	3.4%	0.0%	4.40	3.43	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	DSL White Sox	16	1	29	128	34	15	0	6%	1.8	26.6%	11.7%	14.8%	0.0%	4.40	2.30	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	17	6	51	241	60	27	5	35%	3.0	18.0%	16.6%	1.5%	2.9%	6.66	5.25	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	17	6	51	241	60	27	5	35%	3.0	18.0%	16.6%	1.5%	2.9%	6.66	5.25	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	CWS	13	6	41	196	52	26	4	46%	3.1	26.5%	13.3%	13.3%	2.0%	7.52	3.66	—
2026	22	A RAW	CWS	4	0	11	45	8	1	1	0%	2.7	17.8%	2.2%	15.6%	2.2%	3.38	3.10	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CWS	50	0	52	220	50	26	6	0%	1.0	22.5%	11.7%	10.8%	2.9%	4.72	4.63	-0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	CWS	51	0	54	226	52	24	6	0%	1.0	23.1%	10.7%	12.4%	2.8%	4.55	4.45	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	CWS	52	0	54	229	54	23	6	0%	1.0	23.5%	10.1%	13.4%	2.8%	4.42	4.33	+0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	CWS	52	0	54	229	54	23	6	0%	1.0	23.7%	10.1%	13.6%	2.8%	4.36	4.31	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	CWS	51	0	53	225	53	23	7	0%	1.0	23.7%	10.2%	13.5%	2.9%	4.35	4.35	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	CWS	25	0	26	110	25	13	3	0%	1.0	22.5%	11.7%	10.8%	2.9%	4.75	4.66	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	CWS	35	0	37	156	36	17	5	0%	1.1	23.1%	10.7%	12.4%	2.9%	4.58	4.48	+0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	CWS	42	0	44	186	44	19	5	0%	1.0	23.5%	10.1%	13.4%	2.9%	4.45	4.36	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	CWS	45	0	47	198	47	20	6	0%	1.0	23.7%	10.1%	13.6%	2.9%	4.39	4.34	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	CWS	46	0	48	203	48	21	6	0%	1.0	23.7%	10.2%	13.5%	2.9%	4.38	4.38	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		193	0	203	855	200	89	25	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.4%	13.0%	2.9%	4.48	4.04	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	197	88	25	0%	1.1	23.4%	10.4%	13.0%	2.9%	4.48	4.04	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		33	7	80	369	67	59	7	21%	2.4	18.0%	15.9%	2.1%	1.9%	5.85	4.62	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	18	200	922	166	147	17	21%	2.4	18.0%	15.9%	2.1%	1.9%	5.85	4.62	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Fidel Montero (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	21.6%	13.2%	2.9%	—	4.47	23.0%	12.2%	160	-0.44	—	—	—
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	85
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	83
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	83
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	83
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	83
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	82
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	82
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	80
Joel Garcia R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	19	SW	4.26	18.4%	13.0%	1.9%	.341	3.88	16.7%	9.5%	72	-0.38	3.02	104	80
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	80
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	80
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	79
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	79
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	79
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	79
Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	22	SW	5.52	19.8%	14.6%	4.1%	.378	5.04	20.5%	8.9%	133	-0.48	3.22	201	79
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	78
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	78
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	78
Gray Fenter R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	22	SU	4.41	18.4%	12.3%	2.4%	.367	4.28	22.2%	8.0%	172	-0.13	2.83	330	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	47	23.2%	10.7%	1.10	4.50
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99