Derlin Figueroa
1B Quad Cities River Bandits| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | AKC | 492 | .223/.305/.364 | 13 | 15 | 38 | — | .171/.231/.276 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+/AKC | 482 | .236/.323/.332 | 6 | 24 | 42 | — | .190/.253/.270 |
| 2026 | 22 | A+KC | 452 | .252/.326/.515 | 26 | 18 | 68 | — | .189/.246/.376 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBKC | 1 | .190/.248/.319 | 0 | 0 | 61 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBKC | 130 | .194/.254/.327 | 3 | 3 | 65 | -0.5 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 167 | 134 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 40 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 164 | 313 | 216 | 529 | 52 | 224 | 24 | 16 | 256 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL LAD Mega | — | 169 | 142 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 35 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 296 | 398 | 535 | 933 | 239 | 330 | 21 | 12 | 403 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Royals | — | 157 | 128 | 42 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 29 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 328 | 452 | 555 | 1.007 | 227 | 394 | 18 | 18 | 442 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Columbia Fireflies | — | 492 | 431 | 96 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 49 | 108 | 3 | 15 | 7 | 223 | 305 | 364 | 669 | 142 | 263 | 22 | 10 | 298 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 213 | 188 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 62 | 1 | 13 | 2 | 197 | 281 | 255 | 536 | 59 | 276 | 29 | 10 | 249 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | — | 269 | 231 | 62 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 30 | 40 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 268 | 356 | 394 | 750 | 126 | 305 | 15 | 11 | 333 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 452 | 404 | 102 | 24 | 2 | 26 | 42 | 135 | 2 | 18 | 7 | 252 | 326 | 515 | 841 | 262 | 309 | 30 | 9 | 363 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 167 | 143 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 50 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 105 | 215 | 133 | 348 | 28 | 146 | 30 | 11 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Mega | — | 169 | 150 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 44 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 180 | 259 | 293 | 552 | 113 | 212 | 26 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 157 | 138 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 42 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 217 | 312 | 370 | 682 | 152 | 284 | 27 | 11 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 492 | 450 | 77 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 32 | 153 | 3 | 15 | 7 | 171 | 231 | 276 | 506 | 104 | 223 | 31 | 7 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 213 | 194 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 78 | 1 | 13 | 2 | 165 | 229 | 216 | 445 | 52 | 243 | 37 | 7 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 269 | 243 | 51 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 55 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 210 | 273 | 313 | 585 | 103 | 248 | 20 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 452 | 417 | 79 | 17 | 2 | 19 | 29 | 171 | 2 | 18 | 7 | 189 | 246 | 376 | 622 | 187 | 256 | 38 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 167 | 143 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 50 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 105 | 215 | 133 | 348 | 28 | 155 | 30 | 11 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 167 | 134 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 40 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 164 | 313 | 216 | 529 | 52 | 224 | 24 | 16 | 256 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Mega | — | 169 | 150 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 44 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 180 | 259 | 293 | 552 | 113 | 221 | 26 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL LAD Mega | — | 169 | 142 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 35 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 296 | 398 | 535 | 933 | 239 | 330 | 21 | 12 | 403 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 157 | 138 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 42 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 217 | 312 | 370 | 682 | 152 | 283 | 27 | 11 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Royals | — | 157 | 128 | 42 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 29 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 328 | 452 | 555 | 1.007 | 227 | 394 | 18 | 18 | 442 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 492 | 450 | 77 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 32 | 153 | 3 | 15 | 7 | 171 | 231 | 276 | 506 | 104 | 229 | 31 | 7 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | Columbia Fireflies | — | 492 | 431 | 96 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 49 | 108 | 3 | 15 | 7 | 223 | 305 | 364 | 669 | 142 | 263 | 22 | 10 | 298 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 482 | 437 | 82 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 134 | 3 | 24 | 4 | 188 | 251 | 265 | 517 | 78 | 253 | 28 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 482 | 419 | 99 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 51 | 102 | 3 | 24 | 4 | 236 | 323 | 332 | 655 | 95 | 293 | 21 | 11 | 296 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 452 | 417 | 79 | 17 | 2 | 19 | 29 | 171 | 2 | 18 | 7 | 189 | 246 | 376 | 622 | 187 | 261 | 38 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ RAW | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 452 | 404 | 102 | 24 | 2 | 26 | 42 | 135 | 2 | 18 | 7 | 252 | 326 | 515 | 841 | 262 | 309 | 30 | 9 | 363 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 167 | 145 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 50 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 103 | 215 | 131 | 346 | 28 | 146 | 30 | 11 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Mega | — | 169 | 151 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 44 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 179 | 259 | 291 | 550 | 113 | 212 | 26 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 157 | 137 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 42 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 219 | 312 | 372 | 684 | 153 | 284 | 27 | 11 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 492 | 454 | 77 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 32 | 153 | 3 | 15 | 7 | 170 | 231 | 273 | 504 | 104 | 223 | 31 | 7 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 482 | 442 | 82 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 134 | 3 | 24 | 4 | 186 | 251 | 262 | 513 | 77 | 246 | 28 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 452 | 418 | 79 | 17 | 2 | 19 | 29 | 171 | 2 | 18 | 7 | 189 | 246 | 376 | 621 | 187 | 256 | 38 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 492 | 454 | 77 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 32 | 153 | 3 | 15 | 7 | 170 | 231 | 273 | 504 | 104 | 223 | 31 | 7 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 482 | 442 | 82 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 134 | 3 | 24 | 4 | 186 | 251 | 262 | 513 | 77 | 246 | 28 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 452 | 418 | 79 | 17 | 2 | 19 | 29 | 171 | 2 | 18 | 7 | 189 | 246 | 376 | 621 | 187 | 256 | 38 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | KC | 0% | 562 | 516 | 100 | 19 | 3 | 15 | 38 | 194 | 3 | 14 | 4 | 193 | 251 | 328 | 579 | 135 | 270 | 35 | 7 | 259 | 61 | -26 | +1 | +0 | -10 | +12 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | KC | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 248 | 319 | 567 | 129 | 268 | 0 | 0 | 254 | 61 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | KC | 30% | 430 | 395 | 78 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 30 | 145 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 197 | 257 | 337 | 594 | 140 | 272 | 34 | 7 | 265 | 65 | -18 | +1 | +0 | -8 | +9 | -1.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | KC | 30% | 130 | 119 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 44 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 194 | 254 | 327 | 581 | 133 | 270 | 34 | 7 | 260 | 65 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +3 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 130 | 119 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 44 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 264 | 336 | 600 | 134 | 288 | 34 | 7 | 260 | 52 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +3 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 595 | 120 | 25 | 5 | 15 | 45 | 220 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 202 | 264 | 336 | 600 | 134 | 288 | 34 | 7 | 260 | 52 | -27 | +1 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -2.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2559 | 2323 | 425 | 79 | 12 | 60 | 188 | 811 | 17 | 89 | 34 | 183 | 249 | 305 | 554 | 122 | 247 | 32 | 7 | 246 | 52 | -27 | +1 | +0 | -11 | +14 | -2.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 108 | 20 | 3 | 15 | 48 | 206 | 4 | 23 | 9 | 183 | 249 | 303 | 553 | 120 | 248 | 32 | 7 | 246 | 52 | -28 | +1 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -2.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 452 PAwOBA .355 → .268 (−87)K% 29.9% → 37.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.87% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 37.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 6.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.44% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.961 | ×0.998 | 16.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.961 | ×0.998 | 6.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.961 | ×0.998 | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 7.72% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .355 → .268; ISO .262 → .194; BABIP .309 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AColumbia Fireflies · 269 PAwOBA .325 → .257 (−68)K% 14.9% → 20.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.87% | ÷0.982 | ×1.360 | — | — | 20.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.41% | ÷1.006 | ×0.690 | — | — | 7.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.04% | ÷1.099 | ×0.920 | ×0.953 | — | 18.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.76% | ÷0.913 | ×0.830 | ×0.953 | — | 4.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.57% | ÷0.937 | ×0.910 | ×0.953 | — | 1.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.09% | ÷1.086 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.54% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 120, 2B 83, 3B 87, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .325 → .257; ISO .126 → .105; BABIP .305 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 213 PAwOBA .247 → .197 (−50)K% 29.1% → 36.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.11% | ÷1.007 | ×1.270 | — | — | 36.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.86% | ÷0.981 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 7.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.81% | ÷1.027 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 21.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.97% | ÷1.055 | ×0.810 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 3.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.012 | ×0.850 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.59% | ÷0.983 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.31% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 105, 2B 111, 3B 102, K 101, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .247 → .197; ISO .059 → .044; BABIP .276 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AColumbia Fireflies · 492 PAwOBA .293 → .225 (−68)K% 22.0% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.95% | ÷0.964 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.76% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.61% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.81% | ÷1.037 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 16.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.95% | ÷0.935 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 4.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷1.008 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 0.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.02% | ÷1.020 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.21% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 107, 2B 87, 3B 102, K 93, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .293 → .225; ISO .142 → .109; BABIP .263 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Royals · 157 PAwOBA .431 → .299 (−132)K% 18.5% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.47% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.83% | ÷0.982 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 11.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.64% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.23% | ÷1.029 | ×0.820 | ×0.956 | ×0.995 | 17.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.956 | ×0.995 | 9.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.932 | ×0.720 | ×0.956 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 3.92% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 106, 2B 100, 3B 86, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .431 → .299; ISO .227 → .162; BABIP .394 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL LAD Mega · 169 PAwOBA .395 → .247 (−148)K% 20.7% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.71% | ÷0.973 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.83% | ÷1.059 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 7.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.78% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 1.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.23% | ÷0.977 | ×0.680 | ×1.003 | ×0.995 | 17.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.67% | ÷1.045 | ×0.600 | ×1.003 | ×0.995 | 2.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×1.003 | ×0.995 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.41% | ÷0.975 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 4.03% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 95, 2B 109, 3B 130, K 95, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .395 → .247; ISO .239 → .122; BABIP .330 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL LAD Bautista · 167 PAwOBA .254 → .171 (−84)K% 24.0% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.95% | ÷0.968 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.57% | ÷1.049 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 10.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.09% | ÷1.010 | ×0.680 | ×0.985 | ×1.008 | 12.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.19% | ÷0.987 | ×0.600 | ×0.985 | ×1.008 | 1.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.13% | ÷1.062 | ×0.600 | ×0.985 | ×1.008 | 1.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.211 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 112, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .254 → .171; ISO .052 → .031; BABIP .224 → .146. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).