Yilber Díaz

P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX3 levels	28	23	133	3.80	3.21	28.6%	10.6%	3.6	K 24.4% · BB 10.8% · FIP 3.59
2025	24	MIX4 levels	36	8	60	10.20	6.70	22.5%	24.1%	-1.5	K 18.9% · BB 23.1% · FIP 6.49
2026	25	MIX2 levels	49	0	60	4.80	3.98	26.7%	14.8%	0.4	K 24.1% · BB 13.3% · FIP 3.75
2027PROJ	26	MLBDET	109	0	114	4.82	4.97	24.1%	16.1%	-0.5
2028PROJ82% MLB	27	MLBDET	91	0	96	4.86	4.94	23.8%	15.3%	-0.4
2029PROJ87% MLB	28	MLBDET	83	0	87	4.90	4.97	23.6%	14.9%	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.5 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsSean Isaac (age 25) · Grant Black (age 27) · Preston Johnson (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.82

FIP4.97

K%24.1%

BB%16.1%

K-BB%7.9%

Proj IP153

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 153 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 1	19	1	26	121	17	18	1	5%	1.4	9.6%	18.6%	-9.0%	1.2%	5.13	5.33	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 1	19	1	26	121	17	18	1	5%	1.4	14.0%	14.9%	-0.8%	0.8%	5.13	4.35	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	78	329	99	38	5	89%	4.1	22.5%	13.5%	9.1%	1.9%	4.06	3.97	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	17	78	329	99	38	5	89%	4.1	30.1%	11.6%	18.5%	1.5%	4.06	2.86	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	103	440	140	58	14	100%	4.1	24.6%	15.1%	9.6%	4.0%	4.82	5.15	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	103	440	140	58	14	100%	4.1	31.8%	13.2%	18.6%	3.2%	4.82	3.84	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	23	133	555	159	59	12	82%	4.7	24.4%	10.8%	13.6%	2.2%	3.80	3.59	+2.9
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	23	133	555	159	59	12	82%	4.7	24.4%	10.8%	13.6%	2.2%	3.80	3.59	+2.9
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	23	133	555	159	59	12	82%	4.7	28.6%	10.6%	18.0%	2.2%	3.80	3.21	+3.6
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	36	8	60	315	71	76	10	22%	1.7	18.9%	23.1%	-4.2%	3.7%	10.20	6.49	-1.3
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	36	8	60	315	71	76	10	22%	1.7	18.9%	23.1%	-4.2%	3.7%	10.20	6.49	-1.3
2025	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	36	8	60	315	71	76	10	22%	1.7	22.5%	24.1%	-1.6%	3.2%	10.20	6.70	-1.5
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	60	277	74	41	6	0%	1.2	24.1%	13.3%	10.7%	1.8%	4.80	3.75	+0.6
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	60	277	74	41	6	0%	1.2	24.1%	13.3%	10.7%	1.8%	4.80	3.75	+0.6
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	60	277	74	41	6	0%	1.2	26.7%	14.8%	11.9%	2.2%	4.80	3.98	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			13	4	37	168	26	20	5	31%	2.9	15.5%	11.9%	3.6%	3.0%	6.27	5.06	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	DET	109	0	114	481	116	78	13	0%	1.0	24.1%	16.1%	7.9%	2.7%	4.82	4.97	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	DET	111	0	116	491	117	75	14	0%	1.0	23.8%	15.3%	8.5%	2.8%	4.86	4.94	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	DET	95	0	100	423	100	63	12	0%	1.1	23.6%	14.9%	8.7%	2.9%	4.90	4.97	-0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	DET	85	0	90	378	87	56	12	0%	1.1	22.9%	14.8%	8.1%	3.1%	5.00	5.09	-0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	DET	76	0	80	337	75	50	11	0%	1.1	22.2%	14.9%	7.3%	3.2%	5.16	5.28	-0.6
2028	27	MLB CTX	DET	91	0	96	405	97	62	11	0%	1.1	23.8%	15.3%	8.5%	2.8%	4.86	4.94	-0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	DET	83	0	87	367	87	55	11	0%	1.0	23.6%	14.9%	8.7%	2.9%	4.90	4.97	-0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	DET	76	0	80	338	77	50	10	0%	1.1	22.9%	14.8%	8.1%	3.1%	5.00	5.09	-0.5
2031	30	MLB CTX	DET	70	0	73	308	68	46	10	0%	1.0	22.2%	14.9%	7.3%	3.2%	5.16	5.28	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		333	4	374	1588	355	233	47	1%	1.1	22.4%	14.7%	7.7%	3.0%	5.10	4.70	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		178	2	200	850	190	125	25	1%	1.1	22.4%	14.7%	7.7%	3.0%	5.10	4.70	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		176	74	459	2037	456	303	54	42%	2.6	22.4%	14.9%	7.5%	2.7%	5.11	4.56	-2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	32	200	887	198	132	24	42%	2.6	22.4%	14.9%	7.5%	2.7%	5.11	4.56	-1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 54 IPFIP 3.52 → 3.75 (+0.23)K% 28.0% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.98%	—	×0.860	24.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.81%	—	×0.900	13.33%
HR / BF /BF	1.65%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.81%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.52 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAReno Aces · 41 IPFIP 7.06 → 7.43 (+0.37)K% 21.8% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.78%	—	×0.860	18.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	28.44%	—	×0.900	25.60%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷0.904	×1.100	4.87%

Result: FIP 7.06 → 7.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 14 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.34 (+0.55)K% 23.9% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.88%	—	×0.810	19.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.43%	—	×1.100	14.78%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.333	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 167).

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 54 IPFIP 3.06 → 3.75 (+0.68)K% 34.2% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.22%	—	×0.810	27.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.89%	—	×1.100	14.18%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷1.229	×1.200	2.17%

Result: FIP 3.06 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAReno Aces · 50 IPFIP 2.70 → 2.92 (+0.22)K% 29.9% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.86%	—	×0.860	25.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.53%	—	×0.900	7.68%
HR / BF /BF	1.90%	÷1.124	×1.100	1.85%

Result: FIP 2.70 → 2.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hillsboro Hops · 88 IPFIP 3.86 → 5.35 (+1.48)K% 33.0% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.98%	—	×0.770	25.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.03%	—	×1.150	14.99%
HR / BF /BF	3.46%	÷0.952	×1.250	4.54%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.86 → 5.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 15 IPFIP 3.63 → 3.98 (+0.35)K% 25.0% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.810	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.06%	—	×1.100	15.47%
HR / BF /BF	1.56%	÷1.637	×1.200	1.15%

Result: FIP 3.63 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AVisalia Rawhide · 48 IPFIP 2.56 → 3.84 (+1.27)K% 35.5% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.53%	—	×0.740	26.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.66%	—	×1.180	12.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.03%	÷1.062	×1.300	2.49%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 2.56 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yilber Díaz (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.99	23.5%	8.4%	306	+0.02	—	—	—
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	73
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	72
Preston Johnson R 2024 · 3.94 FIP	24	SU	3.94	23.7%	18.2%	1.0%	.331	5.04	22.6%	10.5%	137	+1.10	3.94	193	71
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	71
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	70
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	70
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	69
Zak Kent R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	26	SW	4.04	21.5%	14.0%	1.8%	.358	3.98	21.4%	11.7%	129	-0.06	3.13	385	68
Ben Gross R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	17.6%	15.6%	2.3%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	118	67
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	318	67
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	67
Eric Cerantola R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	24	SW	4.65	25.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.245	3.74	26.2%	15.9%	100	-0.91	3.37	270	67
Cody Morris R 2023 · 5.08 FIP	26	SU	5.08	23.9%	15.6%	3.7%	.203	3.90	23.3%	9.5%	38	-1.18	2.23	256	67
Adrian Chaidez R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	24	SW	4.96	19.4%	16.3%	2.6%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	4.96	144	67
Jimmy Joyce R 2024 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	17.8%	14.2%	1.7%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	259	66
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	66
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	66
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	24	SU	4.59	24.1%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	66
Carter Loewen R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	23.1%	15.0%	2.2%	.312	4.16	20.0%	11.9%	23	-0.10	2.67	145	65
John Ely R 2011 · 4.38 FIP	25	SW	4.38	23.2%	10.7%	3.4%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	113	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	96	22.9%	15.1%	1.12	5.01
Dan Warthen ('75-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.5	102	24.8%*	14.2%*	1.27*	4.86*
Tim Conroy ('78-'87, -3 WAR*)	2.3	78	20.8%*	13.6%*	1.12*	5.23*
Bob Gibson ('83-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.3	67	20.4%*	14.0%*	1.14*	4.52*
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Rob Tejeda ('05-'11, 3 WAR*)	2.2	74	21.8%*	12.6%*	1.00*	4.23*