Yilber Díaz — OGILVIE

Yilber Díaz P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.08

FIP5.35

K%22.8%

BB%17.1%

K-BB%5.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5560

CTRL4045

CMD3540

K†5555

FB (57%)

CU (8%)

SL-1.1 (35%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 1	19	1	26	121	17	18	1	5%	1.4	9.6%	18.6%	-9.0%	1.2%	5.13	5.33	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 1	19	1	26	121	17	18	1	5%	1.4	14.0%	14.9%	-0.8%	0.8%	5.13	4.35	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	78	329	99	38	5	89%	4.1	22.5%	13.5%	9.1%	1.9%	4.06	3.97	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	17	78	329	99	38	5	89%	4.1	30.1%	11.6%	18.5%	1.5%	4.06	2.86	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	103	440	140	58	14	100%	4.1	24.6%	15.1%	9.6%	4.0%	4.82	5.15	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	103	440	140	58	14	100%	4.1	24.6%	15.1%	9.6%	4.0%	4.82	5.15	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	103	440	140	58	14	100%	4.1	31.8%	13.2%	18.6%	3.2%	4.82	3.84	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	23	133	555	159	59	12	82%	4.7	24.1%	10.8%	13.3%	2.2%	3.80	3.62	+2.1
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	23	133	555	159	59	12	82%	4.7	24.1%	10.8%	13.3%	2.2%	3.80	3.62	+2.1
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	23	133	555	159	59	12	82%	4.7	28.6%	10.6%	18.0%	2.2%	3.80	3.21	+2.8
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	36	8	60	315	71	76	10	22%	1.7	18.4%	23.1%	-4.8%	3.7%	10.20	6.54	-1.4
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	36	8	60	315	71	76	10	22%	1.7	18.4%	23.1%	-4.8%	3.7%	10.20	6.54	-1.4
2025	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	36	8	60	315	71	76	10	22%	1.7	22.5%	24.1%	-1.6%	3.2%	10.20	6.70	-1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			12	4	36	162	24	20	5	33%	3.0	14.8%	12.3%	2.5%	3.1%	6.56	5.26	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	46	0	55	260	68	39	6	0%	1.2	22.9%	13.2%	9.7%	1.9%	5.20	3.88	—
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	46	0	55	260	68	39	6	0%	1.2	22.9%	13.2%	9.7%	1.9%	5.20	3.88	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	DET	42	0	51	232	64	34	4	0%	1.2	27.6%	14.7%	12.9%	1.7%	3.71	3.57	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	DET	4	0	4	28	4	5	2	0%	1.1	14.3%	17.9%	-3.6%	7.1%	22.85	8.08	—
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	DET	4	0	4	28	4	5	2	0%	1.1	14.3%	17.9%	-3.6%	7.1%	22.85	8.08	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	DET	6	0	6	27	6	5	1	0%	1.1	22.8%	17.1%	5.7%	3.0%	5.08	5.35	-0.1
ROS	25	MLB CTX	DET	6	0	6	25	6	4	1	0%	1.0	22.8%	17.1%	5.7%	3.0%	5.08	5.35	-0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	62	287	74	44	7	—	—	25.8%	15.2%	10.6%	2.4%	5.19	4.03	+0.4
FULL	25	MLB A+C	DET	—	—	11	45	74	44	7	—	—	165.0%	97.0%	68.0%	15.1%	30.09	9.76	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	DET	145	0	153	645	148	104	20	0%	1.1	22.9%	16.2%	6.7%	3.2%	5.26	5.33	-1.3
2028	27	MLB MLE	DET	143	0	150	635	145	99	20	0%	1.1	22.8%	15.6%	7.2%	3.2%	5.25	5.29	-1.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	DET	139	0	146	616	140	95	20	0%	1.0	22.7%	15.4%	7.3%	3.3%	5.27	5.32	-1.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	DET	133	0	139	588	130	91	20	0%	1.0	22.1%	15.4%	6.7%	3.4%	5.37	5.46	-1.4
2031	30	MLB MLE	DET	125	0	131	553	118	87	20	0%	1.0	21.4%	15.7%	5.7%	3.6%	5.55	5.66	-1.6
2027	26	MLB CTX	DET	138	0	145	612	140	99	19	0%	1.1	22.9%	16.2%	6.7%	3.2%	5.26	5.33	-1.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	DET	136	0	143	604	138	94	19	0%	1.1	22.8%	15.6%	7.2%	3.2%	5.25	5.29	-1.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	DET	132	0	139	587	133	90	19	0%	1.1	22.7%	15.4%	7.3%	3.3%	5.27	5.32	-1.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	DET	126	0	132	557	123	86	19	0%	1.0	22.1%	15.4%	6.7%	3.4%	5.37	5.46	-1.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	DET	118	0	124	524	112	82	19	0%	1.1	21.4%	15.7%	5.7%	3.6%	5.55	5.66	-1.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		669	4	725	3073	676	476	102	1%	1.1	22.0%	15.5%	6.5%	3.3%	5.39	5.03	-4.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		184	1	200	848	186	131	28	1%	1.1	22.0%	15.5%	6.5%	3.3%	5.39	5.03	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		173	74	455	2020	445	300	54	43%	2.6	22.0%	14.9%	7.2%	2.7%	5.17	4.60	-7.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	33	200	889	196	132	24	43%	2.6	22.0%	14.9%	7.2%	2.7%	5.17	4.60	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yilber Díaz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.35	22.8%	17.1%	3.0%	—	5.31	22.8%	7.1%	449	-0.04	—	—	—
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	76
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	73
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	73
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	73
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	72
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	72
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.30 FIP	25	SW	5.30	21.4%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	72
Cole McDonald R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	25	SW	5.07	26.5%	19.8%	3.1%	.403	3.88	23.4%	11.5%	93	-1.19	2.81	153	71
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	20.6%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.20	23.6%	6.8%	107	-0.44	4.00	311	70
Ben Gross R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	17.6%	15.6%	2.3%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	118	70
Alex Amalfi R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	22	SW	4.24	19.9%	18.5%	0.9%	.300	4.43	22.7%	10.8%	249	+0.19	2.67	299	70
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	70
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	70
Drake Fellows R 2023 · 5.66 FIP	25	SW	5.66	17.1%	20.4%	2.6%	.367	4.91	14.2%	5.1%	266	-0.75	4.32	277	70
Adrian Chaidez R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	24	SW	4.96	19.4%	16.3%	2.6%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	4.96	144	69
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	69
Conor Grammes R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	28.6%	16.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	20.8%	1.1%	128	-0.12	4.11	171	69
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	23.9%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	68
Richard Guasch R 2022 · 4.41 FIP	24	SW	4.41	22.3%	16.2%	2.1%	.287	3.24	23.8%	11.8%	72	-1.17	2.94	316	68
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	145	22.5%	15.9%	1.27	5.29
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39