Dylan Tebrake — OGILVIE

Dylan Tebrake P FCL Nationals

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.26

FIP4.26

K%24.6%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%14.8%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	1	5	20	8	0	0	25%	1.2	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.28	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	1	5	20	8	0	0	25%	1.2	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.33	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	1	31	126	47	15	0	6%	1.7	30.2%	11.3%	18.9%	0.0%	2.61	1.98	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	1	31	126	47	15	0	6%	1.7	30.2%	11.3%	18.9%	0.0%	2.61	1.98	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	1	31	126	47	15	0	6%	1.7	37.3%	11.9%	25.4%	0.0%	2.61	1.52	—
2025	26	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	3	0	4	16	4	3	0	0%	1.3	25.0%	18.8%	6.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.36	—
2025	26	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	3	0	4	16	4	3	0	0%	1.3	25.0%	18.8%	6.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.36	—
2025	26	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	3	0	4	16	4	3	0	0%	1.3	25.0%	18.8%	6.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.35	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	3	0	3	12	5	0	0	0%	1.0	—	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
YTD	27	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	3	0	3	12	5	0	0	0%	1.0	—	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	ROK RAW	WSH	2	0	2	8	3	0	0	0%	1.0	37.5%	0.0%	37.5%	0.0%	0.00	-0.07	—
2026	27	A RAW	WSH	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	WSH	19	0	20	84	21	8	3	0%	1.1	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.1%	4.32	4.35	+0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	WSH	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.1%	4.32	4.35	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	3	1	0%	1.0	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.1%	4.32	3.97	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	83	28	0%	1.1	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.1%	4.32	3.97	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		28	2	43	174	55	17	0	7%	1.5	31.6%	9.9%	21.7%	0.0%	1.90	1.68	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		131	9	200	816	258	81	0	7%	1.5	31.6%	9.9%	21.7%	0.0%	1.90	1.68	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Tebrake (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.26	24.6%	9.8%	3.0%	—	4.35	24.3%	14.5%	20	+0.09	—	—	—
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	86
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	85
Matt Ramsey R 2017 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	24.2%	9.6%	1.8%	.330	3.21	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.04	2.42	125	85
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	83
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	83
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	82
Jason Adam R 2019 · 3.39 FIP	27	SU	3.39	24.2%	9.0%	2.2%	.237	2.64	33.1%	24.9%	88	-0.75	2.42	394	82
Maikel Cleto R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	27	SU	3.44	27.9%	9.9%	2.6%	.301	3.61	23.6%	14.3%	70	+0.17	2.59	156	82
Zac Leigh R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	28.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.282	4.58	19.9%	3.7%	131	+0.74	3.70	201	82
Blake Smith R 2015 · 3.17 FIP	27	SU	3.17	23.3%	10.5%	1.3%	.290	3.59	22.4%	13.8%	71	+0.42	3.17	124	81
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	81
Brad Deppermann R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	22.7%	9.4%	3.4%	.417	2.87	19.5%	13.2%	71	-1.38	1.94	143	81
Spencer Patton R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	27	SU	3.47	26.8%	9.6%	2.6%	.295	2.79	30.3%	18.1%	57	-0.68	2.79	239	81
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	81
Brad Boxberger R 2015 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	27.3%	10.0%	3.4%	.280	4.09	28.5%	17.2%	107	+0.16	3.01	363	80
José Cisnero R 2016 · 4.50 FIP	27	SU	4.50	26.1%	11.7%	3.9%	.367	3.90	24.5%	13.3%	75	-0.60	2.26	279	80
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	80
Pedro Garcia R 2022 · 3.29 FIP	27	SU	3.29	22.9%	9.1%	1.8%	.276	6.18	27.2%	9.8%	50	+2.89	2.80	155	79
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	79
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	79