Justin Long
P
Rome Emperors
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 180 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 21 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107
ERA4.68
FIP4.68
K%22.1%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%10.2%
ROS IP21
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Braves | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3 | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 54.00 | 4.16 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Braves | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3 | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 54.00 | 6.10 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 36 | 151 | 36 | 27 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.9% | 20.7% | -2.8% | 1.3% | 2.52 | 4.92 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 36 | 151 | 36 | 27 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.8% | 17.9% | 6.0% | 0.7% | 2.52 | 3.72 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Rome Emperors | 24 | 0 | 27 | 131 | 30 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 17.6% | 0.1% | 1.9% | 7.57 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ATL | 20 | 0 | 21 | 90 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.1% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 4.68 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 49 | 221 | 50 | 31 | 5 | — | — | 22.6% | 13.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | 6.31 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.1% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 4.30 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 20 | 0 | 22 | 91 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.14 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 86 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.14 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 54 | 0 | 63 | 286 | 51 | 55 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.9% | 19.3% | -1.4% | 1.6% | 4.97 | 4.89 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 171 | 0 | 200 | 903 | 162 | 175 | 14 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.9% | 19.3% | -1.4% | 1.6% | 4.97 | 4.89 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Long (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 2.9% | — | 4.52 | 22.6% | 11.7% | 22 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 91 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 90 |
| Cole Gordon R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .243 | 5.20 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.04 | 4.16 | 112 | 88 |
| Cameron Gann R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.44 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 88 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 87 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 87 |
| Cre Finfrock R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.45 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 3.3% | .278 | 6.27 | 16.7% | -8.5% | 36 | +1.82 | 4.27 | 103 | 87 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 87 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 87 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.3% | .282 | 5.34 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.57 | 3.77 | 105 | 87 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.63 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.31 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 72 | -0.32 | 2.25 | 121 | 86 |
| Jay Driver R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 21.4% | 13.3% | 2.6% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 135 | 86 |
| Logan VanWey R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 2.2% | .301 | 4.32 | 26.4% | 12.7% | 125 | +0.26 | 3.63 | 172 | 86 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 86 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.86 | 3.51 | 156 | 86 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 86 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 86 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 86 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.4% | .331 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.06 | 3.44 | 213 | 85 |
| Reid Schaller R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.73 | 20.2% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .298 | 3.84 | 22.0% | 11.4% | 90 | -0.89 | 3.49 | 186 | 85 |