Justin Long — OGILVIE

Justin Long P Rome Emperors

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 124

ERA5.66

FIP5.66

K%19.5%

BB%18.0%

K-BB%1.6%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	1	0	0	4	1	1	0	0%	0.3	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	54.00	4.16	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	1	0	0	4	1	1	0	0%	0.3	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	54.00	4.16	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	1	0	0	4	1	1	0	0%	0.3	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	54.00	6.10	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	36	151	36	27	1	0%	1.2	17.9%	20.7%	-2.8%	1.0%	2.52	4.77	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	36	151	36	27	1	0%	1.2	17.9%	20.7%	-2.8%	1.0%	2.52	4.77	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	36	151	36	27	1	0%	1.2	23.8%	17.9%	6.0%	0.7%	2.52	3.72	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	36	0	42	208	47	38	6	0%	1.2	17.4%	21.0%	-3.6%	3.6%	7.44	6.27	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	36	0	42	208	47	38	6	0%	1.2	17.4%	21.0%	-3.6%	3.6%	7.44	6.27	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	ATL	36	0	42	208	47	38	6	0%	1.2	22.6%	18.3%	4.3%	2.9%	7.44	5.09	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ATL	40	0	42	177	36	27	5	0%	1.1	20.5%	15.4%	5.1%	2.8%	5.36	5.25	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	ATL	17	0	18	76	16	12	2	0%	1.1	20.5%	15.4%	5.1%	2.8%	5.36	5.25	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	76	16	12	2	0%	1.1	20.5%	15.4%	5.1%	2.8%	5.36	4.87	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	133	22	0%	1.1	20.5%	15.4%	5.1%	2.8%	5.36	4.87	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		66	0	78	363	64	76	9	0%	1.2	17.7%	20.9%	-3.2%	2.5%	5.40	5.62	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		169	0	200	927	164	194	23	0%	1.2	17.7%	20.9%	-3.2%	2.5%	5.40	5.62	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Long (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.66	19.5%	18.0%	2.8%	—	5.25	20.5%	5.1%	42	-0.41	—	—	—
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.09	18.9%	3.4%	102	-0.63	3.74	203	88
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	85
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	85
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	85
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	83
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	83
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	83
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	83
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	83
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	83
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	82
Jack Hartman R 2022 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	15.1%	20.3%	2.5%	.357	3.99	19.5%	8.6%	143	-1.79	3.46	161	82
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	82
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	82
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	82
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	82
Everhett Hazelwood R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	19.0%	15.4%	4.1%	.343	9.36	17.5%	0.6%	14	+3.66	5.23	117	82
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	81
Alec Hansen R 2019 · 5.74 FIP	24	SU	5.74	18.8%	19.8%	3.1%	.349	4.98	29.5%	-5.0%	22	-0.76	3.34	288	81
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	20.2%	16.3%	1.09	5.46
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77