Daniel Mejia prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Daniel Mejia P FCL Phillies

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 164 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%22.7%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	11	0	16	72	9	9	0	0%	1.5	8.5%	15.6%	-7.1%	0.0%	3.94	4.36	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	11	0	16	72	9	9	0	0%	1.5	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.0%	3.94	3.66	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	10	1	16	81	12	14	3	10%	1.6	10.1%	21.6%	-11.5%	5.5%	7.31	7.99	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	10	1	16	81	12	14	3	10%	1.6	14.8%	17.3%	-2.5%	3.7%	7.31	6.66	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	9	7	31	134	29	22	1	78%	3.4	14.7%	20.5%	-5.8%	1.0%	3.23	5.01	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	9	7	31	134	29	22	1	78%	3.4	14.7%	20.5%	-5.8%	1.0%	3.23	5.01	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	9	7	31	134	29	22	1	78%	3.4	21.6%	16.4%	5.2%	0.7%	3.23	3.78	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.7%	12.8%	9.9%	3.0%	4.83	4.83	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	PHI	19	0	20	84	20	10	3	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.69	4.63	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	PHI	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.1%	11.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.69	4.63	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.69	4.25	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	94	23	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.69	4.25	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		30	8	63	287	34	56	6	27%	2.1	11.8%	19.6%	-7.8%	2.0%	4.45	5.69	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		96	26	200	916	109	180	19	27%	2.1	11.8%	19.6%	-7.8%	2.0%	4.45	5.69	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Mejia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	22.7%	12.8%	3.0%	—	4.63	23.1%	11.5%	20	-0.20	—	—	—
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	84
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	83
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	80
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	79
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	79
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	79
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	79
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	79
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	78
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	78
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.17	28.8%	15.2%	112	-0.85	3.14	173	78
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	78
Ryan Zeferjahn R 2022 · 4.45 FIP	24	SW	4.45	21.0%	12.4%	2.8%	.325	4.36	27.3%	13.8%	163	-0.09	3.05	349	77
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	77
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	77
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	77
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	77
Tyler Schimpf R 2019 · 4.04 FIP	23	SU	4.04	24.3%	15.9%	1.8%	.300	5.63	24.1%	7.1%	58	+1.59	3.37	126	77
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	77
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	77