Bradgley Rodriguez

P San Diego Padres

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 160 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

MLBRP40-MANFG #133Pre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX3 levels	45	0	61	2.64	2.59	29.5%	12.2%	—	K 22.0% · BB 14.5% · FIP 3.72
2025	21	MIX3 levels	40	0	44	2.84	2.49	26.0%	9.9%	1.1	K 20.8% · BB 10.3% · FIP 3.11
2026	22	MIX2 levels	69	4	75	2.16	2.71	27.0%	6.2%	1.7	K 26.9% · BB 6.3% · FIP 2.69
2027PROJ	23	MLBSD	58	0	61	3.20	3.28	29.3%	7.9%	1.0
2028PROJ95% MLB	24	MLBSD	63	0	66	3.32	3.32	29.3%	7.8%	1.0
2029PROJ95% MLB	25	MLBSD	64	0	67	3.36	3.33	29.2%	7.8%	1.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.116First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$3M2032Arb-3$5M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

xwOBA vs90

Whiff%81

K%75

CompsDaniel Bard (age 24) · Franco Aleman (age 23) · Reyes Moronta (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8274vR 65

ERA3.20

FIP3.28

K%29.3%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%21.4%

Proj IP61

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$33M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF6065

CTRL4550

CMD4045

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.3

Whiff%

p8130.1%

p7526.9%

xwOBA vs

p900.239

CH+3.4 (43%)

FB (51%)

CT (4%)

SI (25%)

SL (2%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.116 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$8M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.4M
2032	Arb-3	$5M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$8M		$34M	+$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	10	3	25	107	27	16	3	30%	2.5	17.2%	18.7%	-1.5%	3.3%	6.20	5.82	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	10	3	25	107	27	16	3	30%	2.5	25.2%	15.0%	10.3%	2.8%	6.20	4.44	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	61	254	75	31	2	0%	1.4	22.0%	14.5%	7.5%	1.2%	2.64	3.72	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	61	254	75	31	2	0%	1.4	22.0%	14.5%	7.5%	1.2%	2.64	3.72	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	0	61	254	75	31	2	0%	1.4	29.5%	12.2%	17.3%	0.8%	2.64	2.59	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	44	181	47	18	1	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.3%	10.5%	0.8%	2.84	3.11	+0.8
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	44	181	47	18	1	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.3%	10.5%	0.8%	2.84	3.11	+0.8
2025	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	44	181	47	18	1	0%	1.1	26.0%	9.9%	16.0%	0.6%	2.84	2.49	+1.1
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	69	4	75	304	82	19	6	6%	1.1	26.9%	6.3%	20.6%	1.9%	2.16	2.69	+1.7
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	69	4	75	304	82	19	6	6%	1.1	26.9%	6.3%	20.6%	1.9%	2.16	2.69	+1.7
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	69	4	75	304	82	19	6	6%	1.1	27.0%	6.2%	20.7%	2.0%	2.16	2.71	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			75	4	82	332	90	21	6	5%	1.1	27.1%	6.3%	20.8%	1.8%	2.09	2.62	+1.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	SD	58	0	61	258	75	20	6	0%	1.1	29.3%	7.9%	21.4%	2.3%	3.20	3.28	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	SD	66	0	69	292	86	23	7	0%	1.0	29.3%	7.8%	21.5%	2.3%	3.29	3.29	+1.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	SD	67	0	70	296	87	23	7	0%	1.0	29.2%	7.8%	21.5%	2.4%	3.33	3.30	+1.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	SD	67	0	70	296	86	23	7	0%	1.0	29.2%	7.8%	21.4%	2.4%	3.35	3.33	+1.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	SD	66	0	69	291	85	23	7	0%	1.0	29.0%	7.9%	21.1%	2.5%	3.39	3.39	+1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	SD	64	0	67	282	82	23	7	0%	1.0	28.9%	8.1%	20.8%	2.6%	3.44	3.48	+0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	SD	61	0	64	270	76	22	7	0%	1.0	28.3%	8.3%	20.0%	2.7%	3.56	3.64	+0.7
2028	24	MLB CTX	SD	63	0	66	279	82	22	7	0%	1.0	29.3%	7.8%	21.5%	2.4%	3.32	3.32	+1.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	SD	64	0	67	283	83	22	7	0%	1.0	29.2%	7.8%	21.5%	2.4%	3.36	3.33	+1.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	SD	64	0	67	283	83	22	7	0%	1.0	29.2%	7.8%	21.4%	2.5%	3.38	3.36	+1.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	SD	63	0	66	279	81	22	7	0%	1.0	29.0%	7.9%	21.1%	2.5%	3.42	3.42	+0.9
2032	28	MLB CTX	SD	61	0	64	270	78	22	7	0%	1.0	28.9%	8.1%	20.8%	2.6%	3.48	3.52	+0.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	SD	58	0	61	258	73	21	7	0%	1.1	28.3%	8.3%	20.0%	2.8%	3.60	3.68	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		445	4	470	1973	566	152	48	1%	1.1	28.7%	7.7%	21.0%	2.4%	3.19	2.98	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	2	200	839	241	65	20	1%	1.1	28.7%	7.7%	21.0%	2.4%	3.19	2.98	+3.8
Career	—	MLE		164	7	205	846	194	95	14	4%	1.3	22.9%	11.2%	11.7%	1.6%	2.94	3.49	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		160	7	200	824	189	92	14	4%	1.3	22.9%	11.2%	11.7%	1.6%	2.94	3.49	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bradgley Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.28	29.3%	7.9%	2.3%	—	3.31	29.2%	21.4%	209	+0.03	—	—	—
Daniel Bard R 2009 · 3.02 FIP	24	SU	3.02	29.7%	9.0%	2.4%	.288	3.79	22.3%	12.0%	207	+0.77	2.56	456	85
Franco Aleman R 2023 · 2.92 FIP	23	SU	2.92	28.4%	8.8%	2.0%	.315	2.88	29.9%	20.4%	116	-0.04	2.28	226	80
Reyes Moronta R 2016 · 3.70 FIP	23	SU	3.70	29.5%	9.5%	3.5%	.293	3.33	28.2%	15.1%	157	-0.37	3.06	361	79
Diego Castillo R 2017 · 2.38 FIP	23	SU	2.38	26.2%	6.9%	1.1%	.302	3.23	28.3%	19.9%	173	+0.85	2.38	524	79
Hansel Robles R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	24	SU	3.75	28.1%	7.8%	3.7%	.221	4.18	24.0%	13.5%	214	+0.43	2.67	469	79
Seranthony Domínguez R 2018 · 2.38 FIP	23	SU	2.38	32.0%	8.7%	1.6%	.211	3.73	25.0%	13.3%	37	+1.35	2.38	490	78
Jonathan Broxton R 2007 · 2.42 FIP	23	SU	2.42	29.6%	6.6%	1.8%	.304	2.09	32.3%	23.8%	207	-0.33	1.81	676	78
Zack Weiss R 2015 · 3.27 FIP	23	SU	3.27	27.1%	7.0%	2.9%	.299	4.43	22.5%	8.0%	39	+1.16	3.05	368	78
Nick Mears R 2019 · 3.46 FIP	22	SU	3.46	26.9%	8.4%	2.9%	.279	4.60	23.3%	9.9%	67	+1.14	3.19	273	78
Evan Phillips R 2018 · 3.47 FIP	23	SU	3.47	27.3%	9.9%	2.6%	.268	3.55	25.6%	13.9%	124	+0.08	1.52	522	76
Matt Cooper R 2015 · 2.44 FIP	23	SU	2.44	28.3%	7.0%	1.5%	.264	3.21	22.2%	14.1%	191	+0.77	2.44	243	75
Luis Guerrero R 2024 · 3.75 FIP	23	SU	3.75	28.4%	12.1%	2.8%	.270	6.46	17.2%	3.0%	92	+2.71	2.88	232	74
Joe Jiménez R 2018 · 2.61 FIP	23	SU	2.61	29.2%	7.1%	2.0%	.291	4.71	28.4%	17.6%	128	+2.10	1.90	513	74
Geoff Broussard R 2015 · 3.25 FIP	24	SU	3.25	30.8%	8.3%	3.1%	.286	4.90	17.2%	8.7%	107	+1.65	3.25	152	74
Jake Smith R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	25	SU	3.11	28.1%	7.5%	2.6%	.243	4.69	19.3%	-1.7%	26	+1.58	3.11	110	74
Bobby Jenks R 2005 · 2.47 FIP	24	SU	2.47	29.8%	7.1%	1.8%	.301	2.62	21.8%	16.5%	196	+0.15	2.10	357	73
Brendan McCurry R 2015 · 2.53 FIP	23	SU	2.53	26.1%	6.9%	1.4%	.241	3.12	23.2%	17.4%	190	+0.59	2.53	308	73
Carlos Estévez R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	23	SU	3.50	24.0%	9.8%	2.2%	.280	3.63	24.0%	16.3%	166	+0.13	2.48	603	73
Kelvin Herrera R 2013 · 3.71 FIP	23	SU	3.71	30.2%	7.8%	4.0%	.273	2.73	24.6%	17.3%	212	-0.98	2.33	509	73
Mat Olsen R 2023 · 3.24 FIP	23	SU	3.24	26.8%	7.9%	2.6%	.360	3.58	16.1%	6.6%	47	+0.34	2.68	161	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	69	28.8%	7.8%	0.92	3.18
Rafael Soriano ('15)	3.2	64	24.9%	7.7%	0.88	2.89
Kelvin Herrera ('20)	2.6	64	23.8%	7.5%	0.88	3.21
Keone Kela ('21)	1.1	45	29.9%	9.2%	1.03	3.33
Joe Sambito ('76-'87, 8 WAR*)	3.1	70	26.8%*	7.5%*	1.06*	3.65*
Jeff Montgomery ('87-'99, 19 WAR*)	4.3	72	26.2%*	7.6%*	1.01*	3.16*
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*