Leo Balcazar

SS Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 23 R/R 5'10" / 190 lbs AA HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

AA40-MANPROSPECTFG #454MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP40ETA2029FG ETA2027MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	AACIN	217	.263/.354/.328	3	4	82	—	.268/.330/.330
2025	21	A+CIN	343	.262/.336/.413	9	4	75	—	.233/.292/.355
2026	22	AAACIN	151	.235/.331/.364	2	1	61	—	.204/.278/.299
2026	22	AACIN	443	.241/.328/.364	10	2	67	—	.215/.283/.317
2027PROJ10% MLB	23	MLBCIN	32	.227/.290/.329	1	0	73	0.0
2028PROJ33% MLB	24	MLBCIN	188	.231/.295/.342	4	2	78	0.2
2029PROJ46% MLB	25	MLBCIN	277	.233/.297/.349	6	2	81	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$4M2033Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

K%78

Z-Con%74

BB%71

Whiff%64

Max EV50

Chase%42

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 13, comp-based) · star 5% · didn't stick 68%

CompsJacob Amaya (age 23) · Juan Fernandez (age 23) · Ramón Rodríguez (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .290 / .329

PA32

HR1

K%22

BB%6

BABIP273

ISO133

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$5M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 47 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT47

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	130	112	29	5	4	6	13	29	3	8	4	259	352	536	887	277	291	22	10	379	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	168	143	46	6	2	4	18	42	5	13	1	322	416	476	891	154	424	25	11	394	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	82	68	22	5	1	1	13	22	0	2	2	324	432	471	903	147	457	27	16	400	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	410	390	103	13	2	6	14	100	4	9	4	264	297	354	650	90	339	24	3	291	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	217	186	49	3	0	3	23	24	3	4	5	263	354	328	682	65	284	11	11	310	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	343	305	80	17	1	9	29	51	5	4	0	262	336	413	749	151	286	15	8	332	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	103	94	26	6	0	0	9	29	0	5	0	277	340	340	680	64	400	28	9	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	151	132	31	9	1	2	19	25	0	1	1	235	331	364	695	129	276	17	13	316	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	443	390	94	16	1	10	46	88	5	2	5	241	328	364	692	123	287	20	10	315	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	130	116	19	3	3	3	9	36	3	8	4	164	242	319	561	155	190	28	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	168	150	33	4	1	3	11	60	5	13	1	220	295	320	615	100	332	36	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	82	72	19	4	1	1	9	30	0	2	2	264	346	389	735	125	406	37	11	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	410	393	88	11	2	4	11	126	4	9	4	224	252	293	545	69	313	31	3	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	217	194	52	3	0	3	15	29	3	4	5	268	330	330	660	62	288	13	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	343	313	73	15	1	7	21	65	5	4	0	233	292	355	647	121	264	19	6	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	151	137	28	8	1	1	14	30	0	1	1	204	278	299	577	95	249	20	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	443	404	87	15	1	8	33	107	5	2	5	215	283	317	600	101	272	24	7	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	130	116	19	3	3	3	9	36	3	8	4	164	242	319	561	155	203	28	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	—	130	112	29	5	4	6	13	29	3	8	4	259	352	536	887	277	291	22	10	379	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	168	150	33	4	1	3	11	60	5	13	1	220	295	320	615	100	337	36	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	—	168	143	46	6	2	4	18	42	5	13	1	322	416	476	891	154	424	25	11	394	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	82	72	19	4	1	1	9	30	0	2	2	264	346	389	735	125	429	37	11	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	—	82	68	22	5	1	1	13	22	0	2	2	324	432	471	903	147	457	27	16	400	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	410	393	88	11	2	4	11	126	4	9	4	224	252	293	545	69	317	31	3	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	410	390	103	13	2	6	14	100	4	9	4	264	297	354	650	90	339	24	3	291	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	663	603	147	21	1	11	43	111	8	13	5	244	303	337	639	93	279	17	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	663	585	155	26	1	12	61	104	8	13	5	265	343	374	717	109	301	16	9	322	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	594	541	116	23	2	10	47	137	5	3	6	214	283	320	603	105	268	23	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	594	522	125	25	2	12	65	113	5	3	6	239	329	364	693	125	284	19	11	315	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	130	117	19	3	3	3	9	36	3	8	4	162	242	316	558	154	190	28	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	168	150	33	4	1	3	11	60	5	13	1	220	295	320	615	100	332	36	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	82	73	19	4	1	1	9	30	0	2	2	260	346	384	729	123	406	37	11	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	410	392	88	11	2	4	11	126	4	9	4	224	252	293	546	69	313	31	3	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	663	607	147	21	1	11	43	111	8	13	5	242	303	334	637	92	273	17	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	594	537	116	23	2	10	47	137	5	3	6	216	283	322	605	106	266	23	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	410	392	88	11	2	4	11	126	4	9	4	224	252	293	546	69	313	31	3	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	663	607	147	21	1	11	43	111	8	13	5	242	303	334	637	92	273	17	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	594	537	116	23	2	10	47	137	5	3	6	216	283	322	605	106	266	23	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CIN	10%	648	591	133	23	2	10	46	134	6	6	5	226	288	324	612	98	272	21	7	277	73	-20	-1	+3	+7	+14	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	CIN	10%	32	30	7	1	0	1	2	7	0	0	0	227	290	329	618	101	273	22	6	279	73	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CIN	33%	570	518	119	21	2	10	42	117	5	5	4	229	293	336	628	106	274	21	7	283	78	-15	-1	+3	+6	+12	0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	CIN	46%	597	543	126	22	2	12	44	123	5	5	5	231	295	342	638	111	275	21	7	287	81	-14	-1	+3	+6	+13	0.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	CIN	54%	615	558	129	23	2	12	46	127	6	5	5	232	297	345	642	114	276	21	7	289	82	-13	-1	+3	+7	+13	0.9
2031	27	MLB MLE	CIN	57%	622	564	131	23	2	13	47	130	6	4	5	231	297	346	643	115	276	21	8	290	82	-13	-1	+3	+7	+13	0.9
2032	28	MLB MLE	CIN	59%	621	564	130	23	2	13	47	131	5	2	4	230	296	345	641	114	276	21	8	289	82	-14	-1	+2	+7	+13	0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	CIN	58%	614	557	127	22	2	12	47	131	5	1	4	228	294	339	633	111	275	21	8	285	79	-15	-1	+2	+7	+13	0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	CIN	58%	605	550	124	22	2	11	45	131	5	1	3	225	290	332	622	106	274	22	7	281	76	-17	-1	+1	+6	+13	0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	CIN	33%	188	170	41	7	1	4	14	39	2	2	1	231	295	342	636	110	275	21	7	286	78	-5	+0	+1	+2	+4	0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	CIN	46%	277	252	59	10	1	6	21	57	2	2	2	233	297	349	646	116	276	21	8	290	81	-6	-0	+1	+3	+6	0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	CIN	54%	332	301	70	12	1	7	25	68	3	3	3	233	299	352	651	119	277	20	8	292	82	-7	-1	+2	+4	+7	0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	CIN	57%	354	321	75	13	1	8	27	74	3	2	3	233	299	353	652	120	277	21	8	293	82	-8	-1	+2	+4	+8	0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	CIN	59%	364	330	76	13	1	8	28	77	3	1	3	232	298	352	650	119	277	21	8	292	82	-8	-1	+1	+4	+8	0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	CIN	58%	357	324	74	13	1	7	27	76	3	0	2	230	295	345	641	115	276	21	8	288	79	-9	-1	+1	+4	+8	0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	CIN	58%	350	318	72	12	1	7	26	76	3	0	2	227	292	338	630	111	274	22	7	284	76	-10	-1	+1	+4	+8	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2222	2016	467	80	7	47	168	467	19	10	16	232	297	348	645	117	277	21	8	290	75	-53	-4	+9	+24	+48	2.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	136	23	2	14	49	137	6	3	5	231	297	347	644	117	275	21	8	290	75	-15	-1	+3	+7	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	6611	6020	1373	233	25	120	471	1456	65	74	54	228	291	335	626	107	280	22	7	279	75	-111	-8	+18	+49	+99	4.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	135	23	2	12	46	143	6	7	5	228	290	334	625	106	279	22	7	279	75	-16	-1	+3	+7	+14	0.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#3Billy Urbanski'31-'37 * career totals — 6 seasons, 3,345 PA	5.0	3,345	19	24	237*	300*	353*	+32	+2	7.1	7.1
/162	664	4	5	+6.5	+0.4	1.4	pk7: 7
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5George Strickland'50-'60 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,266 PA	4.9	3,266	36	12	219*	302*	329*	+28	+19	3.8	5.0
/162	664	7	2	+5.7	+3.8	0.8	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	3.4	2,254	44	11	230	292	342	+24	+9	2.9	2.9
/162	664	13	3	+7.1	+2.7	0.8	pk7: 3
#6Lena Blackburne'10-'27 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,086 PA	3.1	2,086	4	54	215*	288*	334*	+13	+11	2.0	2.0
/162	664	1	17	+4.2	+3.4	0.6	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Leo Balcazar (OGILVIE)	23	30→47	40	50	40	224/286/321	97	272	5	3	21%	7%	73	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jacob Amaya 2022 · AA	23	41→47	43→45	48→45	47	203/269/312	108	262	11	6	26%	8%	65	-1.2	220/290/337	117	281	12	7	25%	9%	78	-0.3	218/291/330	112	279	11	6	25%	9%	75	-0.4
✕Juan Fernandez 2022 · AA	23	43→53	45→40	47→50	44	218/279/339	121	277	13	7	26%	7%	75	-0.5	242/301/325	83	299	7	10	20%	6%	79	-0.2	250/311/317	67	305	5	11	19%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Ramón Rodríguez 2022 · AA	23	43	43→40	47→45	40	214/258/319	105	272	11	5	26%	5%	61	-1.5	221/274/313	92	256	9	8	17%	6%	67	-1.1	216/277/308	92	237	10	8	14%	7%	65	-0.5
✕Ray Chang 2007 · AAA	23	43→53	42→40	45→40	43	212/271/316	104	278	9	5	27%	6%	67	-1.1	230/286/328	98	288	6	4	21%	6%	74	-0.5	253/311/344	91	295	6	1	15%	6%	85	+0.1
✕Gilberto Galaviz 2015 · AAA	23	49	42→40	47→30	41	238/274/341	103	284	9	6	20%	4%	73	-0.6	256/296/336	80	295	6	5	15%	4%	79	-0.2	262/301/308	46	294	3	1	11%	4%	71	-0.3
✕Alika Williams 2023 · AAA	24	42→45	42→45	43→45	44	210/266/307	97	266	10	7	25%	6%	62	-1.4	225/280/328	103	288	9	7	24%	6%	72	-0.7	245/294/352	106	307	8	5	22%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Kevin Flores 2008 · AAA	23	47→49	42→40	47→45	42	228/273/333	104	287	9	10	24%	5%	70	-0.8	231/279/312	81	293	5	8	22%	6%	68	-1.0	271/313/347	76	348	4	1	22%	4%	85	+0.1
✕Tony Cruz 2010 · AA	23	44→39	44→45	50→40	42	220/260/342	122	264	11	4	22%	5%	68	-1.0	230/274/345	115	286	9	3	22%	6%	74	-0.6	240/283/351	112	295	8	0	21%	5%	77	-0.2
✕Luis Santana 2022 · AA	23	40	43→45	47→50	40	202/261/310	108	272	11	10	29%	6%	61	-1.5	216/274/340	124	275	14	9	26%	6%	74	-0.6	207/266/326	119	257	14	7	25%	5%	64	-0.8
✕Luis Vázquez 2023 · AAA	23	43→47	42→45	45→50	39	213/260/312	99	288	10	11	29%	5%	61	-1.5	230/291/355	125	302	14	9	27%	6%	83	+0.1	233/299/360	126	304	15	8	27%	7%	84	+0.1
✕J.C. Millan 2019 · AA	23	43	40	48→30	43	210/260/303	93	264	8	8	23%	6%	59	-1.7	226/272/327	101	277	9	6	21%	6%	69	-0.9	231/271/321	91	275	9	2	19%	5%	63	-0.7
✕Jose Castaneda 2008 · AAA	23	47→48	41→45	50→40	47	226/290/328	102	274	9	11	20%	7%	76	-0.4	247/305/322	75	312	5	6	21%	6%	80	-0.1	249/297/342	92	328	8	2	25%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Andre Lipcius 2022 · AA	24	44→51	44→45	48→45	46	217/277/336	119	277	11	7	25%	8%	73	-0.6	237/308/366	129	294	13	8	23%	9%	92	+0.7	239/311/369	131	295	15	7	23%	9%	91	+0.6
✕Alberth Martinez 2014 · AAA	23	43→50	46→50	54→45	44	215/271/352	137	266	11	10	24%	6%	75	-0.5	230/277/346	116	281	12	6	22%	6%	75	-0.5	226/272/338	112	274	12	5	22%	5%	69	-0.8
✕Tanner Schobel 2024 · AA	23	45→44	43→45	53→50	48	219/290/326	107	277	11	10	24%	8%	76	-0.4	200/271/309	109	265	11	11	27%	8%	65	-1.2	188/262/291	103	248	10	12	27%	8%	55	-1.4
✕Michael Almanzar 2014 · AA	23	47→51	45	48→45	41	235/277/356	121	290	12	9	24%	5%	78	-0.3	220/264/325	105	278	10	5	24%	4%	65	-1.2	203/246/297	94	261	9	2	25%	4%	50	-1.6
✕Pete Kozma 2011 · AA	23	43→47	41→45	49→50	45	212/267/309	97	268	8	8	24%	7%	63	-1.4	207/257/298	91	262	7	7	23%	6%	56	-1.9	204/262/272	68	250	4	9	19%	6%	52	-1.2
✕Abrahan Gutierrez 2024 · AA	24	44→41	42→45	43→40	46	214/283/317	104	276	10	4	25%	8%	72	-0.7	219/267/300	81	280	6	5	23%	5%	61	-1.5	225/261/287	62	286	4	2	22%	4%	51	-0.5
✕Gilberto Celestino 2022 · MLB	23	47→53	43→45	47→55	46	228/290/343	116	292	11	8	25%	7%	80	-0.2	234/308/327	93	303	7	9	23%	9%	82	+0.0	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Chadwick Tromp 2018 · AA	23	45	40→45	46→40	41	220/264/309	89	279	7	4	24%	5%	61	-1.5	230/289/350	120	286	12	5	23%	7%	81	-0.1	213/268/329	116	264	13	1	24%	6%	65	-0.5

Leo Balcazar

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps