Ray Chang

Pos3B

B/TR/R

Born1983-08-24

Age (2027)43

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AALAST SEASON 2016

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2014	30	AAMIA	167	.234/.294/.297	0	0	45	—	.221/.264/.279
2015	31	AAMIA	280	.283/.367/.371	1	1	78	—	.259/.313/.337
2016	32	AAA/AA2 orgs	210	.257/.317/.304	0	1	39	—	.218/.260/.254

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	21	ROK	AZL Padres	—	56	48	8	2	0	0	5	12	1	0	0	167	255	208	463	42	216	21	9	218	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	AAA	Portland Beavers	—	20	18	4	1	1	1	1	7	0	0	0	222	250	556	806	333	300	35	5	329	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	AA	Mobile BayBears	—	46	43	10	3	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	233	233	302	535	70	278	17	0	221	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A	Fort Wayne Wizards	—	113	91	26	4	0	3	16	19	3	0	1	286	398	429	827	143	333	17	14	371	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	AAA	Portland Beavers	—	297	267	70	17	0	3	17	58	6	1	2	262	321	360	680	97	319	20	6	302	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	63	56	17	3	2	1	3	6	2	0	0	304	361	482	843	179	320	10	5	360	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AA	Altoona Curve	—	84	71	19	11	0	0	10	10	2	0	0	268	373	423	796	155	311	12	12	355	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AA	Altoona Curve	—	152	127	37	14	0	2	15	16	5	1	2	291	388	449	837	157	315	11	10	364	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	A+	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	144	122	37	9	0	0	14	14	4	1	1	303	393	377	770	74	336	10	10	344	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	508	440	131	30	2	9	51	64	12	0	1	298	385	436	821	139	331	13	10	367	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	187	167	45	7	0	2	14	26	0	0	0	269	326	347	673	78	305	14	7	297	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	AA	New Britain Rock Cats	—	97	89	24	9	0	1	5	14	2	1	1	270	323	404	727	135	307	14	5	322	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	297	266	64	8	0	0	20	39	5	3	3	241	304	271	574	30	279	13	7	265	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	29	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	50	45	10	3	0	1	4	10	1	0	0	222	300	356	656	133	265	20	8	298	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	29	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	244	216	60	8	0	2	21	35	0	0	1	278	338	343	680	65	320	14	9	305	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	30	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	167	145	34	9	0	0	12	23	2	0	1	234	294	297	591	62	276	14	7	264	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	280	240	68	16	1	1	31	37	2	1	1	283	367	371	738	88	327	13	11	331	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	79	72	17	4	0	0	7	19	0	1	1	236	304	292	595	56	321	24	9	276	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	131	119	32	5	0	0	9	28	1	0	0	269	326	311	637	42	348	21	7	289	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	21	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	—	56	51	6	1	0	0	3	17	1	0	0	118	182	137	319	20	167	30	5	153	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	AAA MLE	Portland Beavers	—	20	19	4	1	1	1	1	9	0	0	0	211	250	526	776	316	260	45	5	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	46	43	10	3	0	0	0	10	0	0	0	233	233	302	535	70	262	22	0	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A MLE	Fort Wayne Wizards	—	113	99	22	3	0	2	11	26	3	0	1	222	319	313	632	91	281	23	10	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	AAA MLE	Portland Beavers	—	297	272	61	14	0	2	12	75	6	1	2	224	272	298	570	74	284	25	4	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	63	57	16	3	2	1	2	8	2	0	0	281	328	456	784	175	281	13	3	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	84	74	18	10	0	0	7	12	2	0	0	243	325	378	704	135	295	14	8	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	152	132	35	12	0	2	10	19	5	1	2	265	340	402	742	136	281	12	7	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	144	128	35	8	0	0	8	20	4	1	1	273	336	336	672	62	300	14	6	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	508	457	121	24	2	6	35	78	12	0	1	265	333	365	699	101	300	15	7	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	187	172	43	6	0	1	9	33	0	0	0	250	287	302	590	52	285	18	5	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	AA MLE	New Britain Rock Cats	—	97	91	21	7	0	1	3	17	2	1	1	231	271	341	611	110	267	18	3	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	297	276	58	7	0	0	12	45	5	3	3	210	256	236	491	25	246	15	4	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	29	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	50	46	8	2	0	1	2	12	1	0	0	174	220	283	503	109	232	24	4	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	29	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	244	227	56	7	0	2	13	41	0	0	1	247	287	304	591	57	284	17	5	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	30	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	167	154	34	9	0	0	7	28	2	0	1	221	264	279	543	58	255	17	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	280	255	66	15	1	1	18	46	2	1	1	259	313	337	650	78	299	16	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	79	74	15	3	0	0	5	23	0	1	1	203	253	243	496	41	285	29	6	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	131	123	28	4	0	0	5	33	1	0	0	228	264	260	524	33	298	25	4	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	21	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	—	56	51	6	1	0	0	3	17	1	0	0	118	182	137	319	20	171	30	5	153	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	21	ROK RAW	AZL Padres	—	56	48	8	2	0	0	5	12	1	0	0	167	255	208	463	42	216	21	9	218	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	179	161	36	7	1	3	12	45	3	0	1	224	290	335	625	112	289	25	7	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A RAW	3 teams	—	179	152	40	8	1	4	17	34	3	0	1	263	341	408	749	145	313	19	9	328	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	360	329	76	16	2	3	14	83	8	1	2	231	279	319	598	88	294	23	4	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	360	323	87	20	2	4	20	64	8	1	2	269	328	381	708	111	319	18	6	312	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	84	74	18	10	0	0	7	12	2	0	0	243	325	378	704	135	290	14	8	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	—	84	71	19	11	0	0	10	10	2	0	0	268	373	423	796	155	311	12	12	355	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	296	259	70	20	0	2	19	39	9	2	3	270	341	371	712	100	306	13	6	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	296	249	74	23	0	2	29	30	9	2	3	297	390	414	804	116	326	10	10	354	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	508	457	121	24	2	6	35	78	12	0	1	265	333	365	699	101	307	15	7	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	—	508	440	131	30	2	9	51	64	12	0	1	298	385	436	821	139	331	13	10	367	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	284	263	64	13	0	2	12	50	2	1	1	243	282	316	597	72	290	18	4	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	284	256	69	16	0	3	19	40	2	1	1	270	325	367	692	98	306	14	7	306	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	297	276	58	7	0	0	12	45	5	3	3	210	256	236	491	25	249	15	4	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	—	297	266	64	8	0	0	20	39	5	3	3	241	304	271	574	30	279	13	7	265	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	29	AA MLE	2 teams	—	294	273	64	10	0	2	16	53	1	0	1	234	279	293	572	59	282	18	5	255	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	29	AA RAW	2 teams	—	294	261	70	11	0	3	25	45	1	0	1	268	331	345	676	77	312	15	9	303	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	30	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	167	154	34	9	0	0	7	28	2	0	1	221	264	279	543	58	268	17	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	30	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	167	145	34	9	0	0	12	23	2	0	1	234	294	297	591	62	276	14	7	264	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	280	255	66	15	1	1	18	46	2	1	1	259	313	337	650	78	308	16	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	280	240	68	16	1	1	31	37	2	1	1	283	367	371	738	88	327	13	11	331	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	AA MLE	2 teams	—	210	197	42	7	0	0	10	56	1	1	1	213	255	249	504	36	296	27	5	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	AA RAW	2 teams	—	210	191	49	9	0	0	16	47	1	1	1	257	317	304	621	47	338	22	8	284	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	21	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	—	56	52	6	1	0	0	3	17	1	0	0	115	182	135	316	19	167	30	5	153	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	179	162	36	7	1	3	12	45	3	0	1	222	290	333	623	111	274	25	7	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	360	335	76	16	2	3	14	83	8	1	2	227	279	313	593	87	283	23	4	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	84	75	18	10	0	0	7	12	2	0	0	240	325	373	699	133	295	14	8	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	296	266	70	20	0	2	19	39	9	2	3	263	341	361	702	98	290	13	6	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	508	456	121	24	2	6	35	78	12	0	1	265	333	366	700	101	300	15	7	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	284	268	64	13	0	2	12	50	2	1	1	239	282	310	591	71	279	18	4	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	297	278	58	7	0	0	12	45	5	3	3	209	256	234	490	25	246	15	4	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	29	AA MLE	2 teams	—	294	275	64	10	0	2	16	53	1	0	1	233	279	291	570	58	275	18	5	255	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	30	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	167	156	34	9	0	0	7	28	2	0	1	218	264	276	539	58	255	17	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	280	258	66	15	1	1	18	46	2	1	1	256	313	333	646	78	299	16	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	AA MLE	2 teams	—	210	197	42	7	0	0	10	56	1	1	1	213	255	249	504	36	293	27	5	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
Career	—	MLE		—	3015	2749	655	139	6	19	165	552	48	9	15	238	293	314	607	76	289	18	5	266	66	-120	-4	+0	+11	+65	-4.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	141	30	1	4	36	119	10	2	3	238	293	312	605	74	288	18	6	266	66	-26	-1	+0	+2	+14	-1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2016 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 131 PAwOBA .284 → .232 (−52)K% 21.4% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.37%	÷1.042	×1.220	—	—	25.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.87%	÷1.075	×0.680	—	×0.940	4.08%
HBP% /PA	0.76%	—	×0.840	—	×0.940	0.60%
Singles /BIP	29.67%	÷0.993	×0.920	×0.998	×0.940	25.79%
Doubles /BIP	5.49%	÷1.081	×0.910	×0.998	×0.940	4.34%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.981	×0.880	×0.998	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.924	×0.800	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 99, 2B 116, 3B 96, K 108, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 24.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .284 → .232; ISO .042 → .034; BABIP .348 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAALouisville Bats · 79 PAwOBA .269 → .216 (−52)K% 24.1% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.05%	÷0.984	×1.200	—	—	29.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.86%	÷0.978	×0.690	—	×0.942	5.89%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.53%	÷0.952	×0.930	×1.011	×0.942	22.83%
Doubles /BIP	7.55%	÷1.053	×0.830	×1.011	×0.942	5.66%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.011	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.882	×0.840	—	×0.942	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 90, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .269 → .216; ISO .056 → .040; BABIP .321 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 280 PAwOBA .325 → .283 (−42)K% 13.2% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.21%	÷0.979	×1.220	—	—	16.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.71%	÷1.087	×0.680	—	×0.940	6.30%
HBP% /PA	0.71%	—	×0.840	—	×0.940	0.56%
Singles /BIP	24.63%	÷0.965	×0.920	×1.027	×0.940	22.67%
Doubles /BIP	7.88%	÷0.979	×0.910	×1.027	×0.940	7.07%
Triples /BIP	0.49%	÷0.903	×0.880	×1.027	×0.940	0.46%
Home runs /BIP	0.49%	÷1.037	×0.800	—	×0.940	0.36%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 93, 2B 96, 3B 81, K 96, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 24.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .325 → .283; ISO .087 → .081; BABIP .327 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 167 PAwOBA .259 → .234 (−25)K% 13.8% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.77%	÷1.014	×1.220	—	—	16.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.19%	÷1.051	×0.680	—	×0.940	4.37%
HBP% /PA	1.20%	—	×0.840	—	×0.940	0.95%
Singles /BIP	20.49%	÷0.971	×0.920	×1.050	×0.940	19.16%
Doubles /BIP	7.38%	÷1.012	×0.910	×1.050	×0.940	6.55%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.880	×1.050	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.970	×0.800	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 94, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 24.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .259 → .234; ISO .062 → .059; BABIP .276 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 244 PAwOBA .298 → .259 (−38)K% 14.3% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.34%	÷1.050	×1.220	—	—	16.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.20%	÷0.966	×0.680	—	×0.948	5.47%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.840	—	×0.948	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.62%	÷1.018	×0.920	×1.039	×0.948	24.57%
Doubles /BIP	4.42%	÷1.019	×0.910	×1.039	×0.948	3.89%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.109	×0.880	×1.039	×0.948	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.10%	÷1.048	×0.800	—	×0.948	0.80%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 104, 2B 104, 3B 122, K 110, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.

Result: wOBA .298 → .259; ISO .065 → .055; BABIP .320 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAALouisville Bats · 50 PAwOBA .290 → .233 (−58)K% 20.0% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	24.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.00%	÷1.075	×0.690	—	×0.972	4.99%
HBP% /PA	2.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.83%
Singles /BIP	17.14%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×0.972	15.49%
Doubles /BIP	8.57%	÷0.960	×0.830	—	×0.972	7.20%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.86%	÷1.038	×0.840	—	×0.972	2.25%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 100, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 92, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .290 → .233; ISO .133 → .106; BABIP .265 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAARochester Red Wings · 297 PAwOBA .257 → .224 (−33)K% 13.1% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.13%	÷1.051	×1.200	—	—	14.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.06%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×0.982	4.01%
HBP% /PA	1.68%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.55%
Singles /BIP	24.67%	÷1.052	×0.930	×1.008	×0.982	21.60%
Doubles /BIP	3.52%	÷0.913	×0.830	×1.008	×0.982	3.17%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.008	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.010	×0.840	—	×0.982	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 110, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 110, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .257 → .224; ISO .030 → .028; BABIP .279 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAARochester Red Wings · 187 PAwOBA .290 → .260 (−31)K% 13.9% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.90%	÷0.950	×1.200	—	—	17.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.95%	÷1.024	×0.690	—	×0.992	4.65%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.53%	÷0.980	×0.930	×1.016	×0.992	24.43%
Doubles /BIP	4.96%	÷1.004	×0.830	×1.016	×0.992	4.14%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.016	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.42%	÷1.150	×0.840	—	×0.992	1.03%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 90, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .290 → .260; ISO .078 → .063; BABIP .305 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).