Leo Balcazar — OGILVIE

Leo BalcazarSS Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 22 R/R 5'10" / 190 lbs AA HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION379 act + 252 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .275 / .319

PA252

HR5

K%26

BB%6

BABIP277

ISO104

MLB%40%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 47 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT47

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$7M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+1.3	$8M	+$6M
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+1.3	$7M	+$4M
2032	Arb-3	$6M	+1.2	$6M	+$3M
Totals		$16M		$33M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	130	117	22	4	3	4	8	42	3	8	4	188	258	376	634	188	247	32	6	258	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	130	112	29	5	4	6	13	29	3	8	4	259	352	536	887	277	291	22	10	379	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	168	150	32	4	1	3	11	60	5	13	1	213	289	313	602	100	326	36	7	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	168	143	46	6	2	4	18	42	5	13	1	322	416	476	891	154	424	25	11	394	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	82	71	18	4	1	1	10	31	0	2	2	254	346	380	726	127	425	38	12	294	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	82	68	22	5	1	1	13	22	0	2	2	324	432	471	903	147	457	27	16	400	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	410	394	80	11	1	3	10	133	4	9	4	203	230	259	489	56	296	32	2	216	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	410	390	103	13	2	6	14	100	4	9	4	264	297	354	650	90	339	24	3	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	3 teams	—	663	606	146	22	1	10	40	118	8	13	5	241	297	330	627	89	281	18	6	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	3 teams	—	663	585	155	26	1	12	61	104	8	13	5	265	343	374	717	109	301	16	9	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	AA	CIN	—	379	346	72	9	1	9	28	105	4	2	3	208	275	318	593	110	270	28	7	263	59	-17	-1	+0	+4	+11	-0.3
YTD	22	AA	CIN	—	379	332	81	11	1	10	41	81	4	2	3	244	333	373	707	130	293	21	11	321	103	+1	-1	+0	+4	+11	1.6
ROS	22	AA	CIN	40%	252	231	50	7	1	5	16	65	3	2	2	216	275	319	595	104	274	26	6	265	61	-11	-0	+1	+3	+7	-0.0
ROS	22	MLB	CIN	40%	101	92	20	3	0	2	7	26	1	1	1	217	280	315	595	98	276	26	7	260	57	-5	-0	+1	+1	+3	-0.1
FULL	22	AA	CIN	—	480	438	92	12	1	11	35	131	5	3	4	210	276	317	594	107	272	27	7	262	59	-22	-1	+1	+5	+14	-0.4
TOT	22	AA	CIN	—	631	577	122	16	2	14	44	170	7	4	5	211	275	319	594	107	273	27	7	264	60	-28	-1	+1	+7	+18	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	CIN	51%	547	499	111	16	2	12	38	137	5	4	3	222	284	335	619	112	277	25	7	277	70	-19	-0	+3	+6	+15	0.5
2028	24	MLB	CIN	54%	585	532	120	18	2	14	42	143	6	4	4	226	290	346	636	120	279	24	7	284	76	-16	-1	+3	+6	+17	0.9
2029	25	MLB	CIN	55%	607	552	125	19	2	15	44	147	6	5	4	226	291	350	640	123	280	24	7	289	79	-14	-1	+3	+7	+17	1.2
2030	26	MLB	CIN	56%	618	561	129	20	2	16	46	150	6	5	4	230	295	358	654	128	280	24	7	291	81	-14	-1	+3	+7	+18	1.3
2031	27	MLB	CIN	55%	620	562	129	20	2	16	47	150	6	5	4	230	296	358	654	128	280	24	8	291	81	-14	-1	+3	+7	+18	1.3
2032	28	MLB	CIN	55%	617	559	126	19	2	15	47	151	6	4	4	225	292	347	640	122	280	24	8	290	80	-14	-1	+2	+7	+17	1.2
2027	23	MLB	CIN	51%	278	254	56	8	1	6	19	70	3	2	2	220	283	331	613	110	280	25	7	272	66	-11	-0	+1	+3	+8	0.1
2028	24	MLB	CIN	54%	315	287	66	10	1	8	22	77	3	2	2	230	292	355	647	125	282	24	7	280	72	-10	-0	+2	+3	+9	0.4
2029	25	MLB	CIN	55%	335	305	71	11	1	9	24	81	3	3	2	233	295	364	659	131	283	24	7	284	76	-9	-0	+2	+4	+9	0.5
2030	26	MLB	CIN	56%	345	312	72	11	1	9	26	83	4	3	2	231	298	359	657	128	283	24	8	286	77	-9	-0	+2	+4	+10	0.6
2031	27	MLB	CIN	55%	342	310	71	11	1	9	26	83	3	3	2	229	295	358	653	129	283	24	8	286	77	-9	-0	+2	+4	+10	0.6
2032	28	MLB	CIN	55%	338	306	71	11	1	9	26	82	3	2	2	232	299	363	661	131	282	24	8	285	77	-9	-0	+1	+4	+10	0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2054	1866	427	65	6	52	150	502	20	16	13	229	293	354	647	125	283	24	7	282	74	-61	-2	+10	+22	+58	2.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	135	21	2	16	47	159	6	5	4	228	292	352	644	124	283	24	7	282	74	-19	-1	+3	+7	+18	0.9
Career	—			—	5299	4834	1088	164	20	114	359	1327	58	74	41	225	287	338	625	113	284	25	7	278	71	-174	-2	+18	+57	+150	5.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	133	20	2	14	44	163	7	9	5	224	286	336	621	111	283	25	7	278	71	-21	-0	+2	+7	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	130	112	29	5	4	6	13	29	3	8	4	259	352	536	887	277	291	22	10	379	148	+7	+0	—	—	+4	1.1
2022	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	168	143	46	6	2	4	18	42	5	13	1	322	416	476	891	154	424	25	11	394	160	+11	+2	—	—	+5	1.9
2023	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	82	68	22	5	1	1	13	22	0	2	2	324	432	471	903	147	457	27	16	400	164	+6	-0	—	—	+2	0.8
2024	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	410	390	103	13	2	6	14	100	4	9	4	264	297	354	650	90	339	24	3	291	81	-9	+0	—	—	+12	0.3
2025	21	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	217	186	49	3	0	3	23	24	3	4	5	263	354	328	682	65	284	11	11	310	95	-1	-1	—	—	+6	0.4
2025	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	343	305	80	17	1	9	29	51	5	4	0	262	336	413	749	151	286	15	8	332	113	+5	+1	—	—	+10	1.6
2025	21	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	103	94	26	6	0	0	9	29	0	5	0	277	340	340	680	64	400	28	9	311	97	-0	+1	—	—	+3	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	2,081	50	16	227	288	347	+22	+9	2.4	2.5
	/162	664	16	5	227	288	347	+7.1	+3.0	0.8	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Leo Balcazar (OGILVIE)	22	30→47	40	50	40	211/275/319	107	273	14	4	27%	7%	60	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gerson Montilla 2012 · AA	22	39→46	43→45	48→45	38	199/244/310	111	261	10	8	28%	4%	49	-1.8	219/257/339	120	264	13	6	22%	5%	62	-0.9	214/260/326	113	259	14	4	23%	5%	59	-0.9
✕Livan Soto 2022 · AA	22	36→46	40	50	41	181/235/274	93	246	8	11	29%	6%	36	-2.7	225/291/315	90	302	7	9	26%	8%	70	-0.3	236/307/320	84	310	7	8	24%	9%	76	+0.0
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Colton Welker 2021 · AA	23	43→53	41→40	47→45	41	214/256/312	98	276	9	5	26%	5%	54	-1.4	210/282/313	103	278	10	6	26%	8%	66	-0.6	190/284/260	70	260	6	3	27%	10%	52	-0.5
✕Luis Santana 2022 · AA	23	39	42→45	47→50	39	198/255/299	101	269	10	10	30%	5%	51	-1.7	211/272/334	123	278	13	9	28%	6%	67	-0.5	201/263/321	120	259	14	7	27%	6%	57	-0.7
✕Ramón Rodríguez 2022 · AA	23	43	42→40	47→45	40	213/257/317	104	272	10	5	26%	5%	56	-1.3	225/280/319	94	262	9	8	18%	6%	66	-0.6	215/285/319	104	236	12	5	15%	8%	66	-0.2
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2022 · A	22	41→51	42→45	48→50	38	205/253/308	104	278	10	9	30%	5%	52	-1.6	235/290/335	100	323	11	12	29%	6%	75	-0.0	235/295/324	88	326	9	12	29%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Adan Velazquez 2012 · AAA	22	41→51	40→45	48→50	38	200/254/293	93	288	6	9	32%	5%	49	-1.8	237/279/334	97	300	8	8	23%	5%	69	-0.4	248/287/342	94	301	8	6	20%	4%	71	-0.2
●Cody Freeman 2023 · A	22	40→50	42→50	47→50	46	200/263/300	99	240	11	9	22%	6%	54	-1.4	218/266/352	134	258	15	9	21%	5%	69	-0.4	233/276/386	153	263	18	9	19%	5%	80	+0.3
✕Jacob Amaya 2022 · AA	23	39→46	44→45	48→45	45	198/261/314	116	258	13	6	28%	8%	57	-1.2	214/281/337	123	274	14	7	26%	8%	72	-0.2	210/281/328	118	268	13	6	25%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Adolfo Gonzalez 2007 · AA	22	44	42→40	46→45	37	219/256/325	107	284	9	6	26%	4%	58	-1.2	239/273/329	90	327	7	7	28%	4%	65	-0.7	249/281/332	82	340	6	6	27%	4%	65	-0.3
✕Pedro Severino 2015 · A	22	40→48	41→50	50→45	40	198/239/296	98	246	9	4	24%	4%	43	-2.2	218/254/303	85	265	9	4	21%	4%	50	-1.7	238/307/375	137	291	17	3	24%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Danny Mendick 2016 · A	22	42→49	42→45	50	46	207/265/308	101	249	10	9	21%	6%	58	-1.2	207/262/300	93	261	8	9	23%	6%	53	-1.5	230/289/365	135	277	15	15	22%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Juan Fernandez 2021 · A	22	42→52	38→40	46→50	43	203/260/282	79	265	5	6	25%	6%	48	-1.9	232/291/335	103	298	11	9	24%	6%	75	-0.0	239/301/332	93	297	10	9	22%	6%	74	-0.0
●Eric Fryer 2008 · A	22	39→49	40→45	45→50	42	192/246/281	88	253	7	7	27%	6%	42	-2.3	243/302/354	111	314	9	10	24%	7%	85	+0.7	247/310/361	114	319	9	11	24%	7%	86	+0.5
✕Corey Joyce 2021 · A	22	45	40→45	50	40	213/269/309	96	308	8	8	32%	6%	59	-1.1	202/290/319	117	298	12	12	34%	9%	72	-0.2	214/316/327	113	306	11	14	30%	10%	82	+0.3
✕J.C. Millan 2019 · AA	23	43	40→45	48→30	43	212/261/306	94	267	8	8	23%	6%	55	-1.4	226/271/332	106	278	11	6	22%	6%	66	-0.6	227/267/326	98	272	11	2	20%	5%	58	-0.6
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	39→49	38→45	48→50	44	184/272/269	85	267	5	10	31%	8%	52	-1.6	206/276/298	92	284	6	11	28%	6%	60	-1.0	223/293/322	99	294	9	16	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Dustin Peterson 2017 · AA	22	43→48	41→50	45	41	214/257/309	95	273	9	4	25%	5%	53	-1.5	228/273/331	103	300	10	4	26%	5%	66	-0.6	238/284/365	127	294	16	2	24%	5%	76	+0.0
✕Yairo Muñoz 2017 · AA	22	42→52	42→50	44→55	39	208/244/306	98	260	10	7	24%	4%	47	-1.9	246/286/376	130	305	14	14	23%	5%	83	+0.6	262/304/399	137	319	15	17	22%	5%	91	+0.7