Leo Balcazar — OGILVIE

Leo BalcazarSS Chattanooga Lookouts

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 22 R/R 5'10" / 190 lbs AA HR +9%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.7 · 2030

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.225 / .277 / .317

PA203

HR3

K%23

BB%6

MLB%40%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

30↗47

PWR

40→40

SPD

50→50

FLD

55→55

EYE

39↗40

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.4peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.5	$13M	+$12M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.7	$15M	+$14M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.7	$16M	+$15M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.5	$14M	+$11M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.3	$13M	+$8M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+1.1	$11M	+$6M
Totals		$15M		$82M	+$67M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Reds	130	117	22	4	3	4	8	42	3	8	4	.188	.258	.376	.634	.188	.247	32	6	.260	57	-6	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.1
2022	18	ROK	ACL Reds	168	150	33	4	1	3	11	60	5	13	1	.220	.295	.320	.615	.100	.337	36	7	.269	64	-7	+2	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2023	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	82	71	18	4	1	1	10	31	0	2	2	.254	.346	.380	.726	.127	.425	38	12	.303	90	-1	-0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
2024	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	410	394	84	11	2	3	10	126	4	9	4	.213	.240	.274	.514	.061	.303	31	2	.224	30	-33	+0	+0	+4	+12	-1.7
2025	21	A+	3 teams	663	604	142	21	1	11	42	113	8	13	5	.235	.294	.328	.621	.093	.270	17	6	.275	68	-24	+1	+0	+7	+19	0.3
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	83	75	18	3	0	3	8	21	0	1	1	.240	.313	.400	.713	.160	.294	25	10	.302	89	-1	-0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
ROS	22	MLB	CIN	120	110	25	4	0	2	8	28	1	2	1	.227	.286	.318	.604	.091	.282	23	7	.277	70	-4	+0	+1	+1	+3	0.1
TOT	22	MLB	CIN	203	185	43	7	0	5	16	49	1	3	2	.232	.297	.351	.648	.119	.288	24	8	.287	78	-5	-0	+1	+2	+6	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	23	MLB 58%	CIN	525	480	112	18	2	10	35	106	5	8	4	.233	.292	.342	.634	.108	.274	20	7	.282	74	-15	+0	+3	+6	+15	0.8
2028	24	MLB 76%	CIN	561	511	120	19	2	12	40	113	5	9	5	.235	.297	.350	.647	.115	.276	20	7	.290	80	-13	-0	+3	+6	+16	1.2
2029	25	MLB 91%	CIN	583	530	125	20	2	13	43	117	5	9	5	.236	.299	.355	.654	.119	.277	20	7	.294	83	-11	-0	+3	+6	+17	1.5
2030	26	MLB	CIN	594	538	129	21	2	14	45	119	6	10	5	.240	.306	.364	.670	.125	.278	20	8	.297	85	-10	+0	+3	+6	+17	1.7
2031	27	MLB	CIN	596	539	129	21	2	14	46	120	6	10	5	.239	.306	.364	.670	.124	.278	20	8	.297	85	-10	+0	+3	+6	+17	1.7
2032	28	MLB	CIN	593	537	126	20	2	13	46	121	5	9	5	.235	.301	.352	.653	.117	.278	20	8	.296	85	-10	-0	+2	+6	+17	1.5
2033	29	MLB	CIN	584	528	124	20	2	13	46	121	5	8	4	.235	.302	.354	.656	.119	.277	21	8	.294	83	-11	+0	+2	+6	+17	1.3
2034	30	MLB	CIN	574	519	120	19	2	12	45	121	5	8	4	.231	.299	.345	.644	.114	.276	21	8	.291	81	-13	+0	+1	+6	+16	1.1
2035	31	MLB	CIN	560	506	115	18	1	12	44	120	5	6	4	.227	.295	.338	.633	.111	.274	21	8	.287	78	-14	-0	-0	+6	+16	0.7
2036	32	MLB	CIN	542	490	110	17	1	11	42	119	5	4	4	.224	.292	.331	.623	.106	.273	22	8	.282	74	-16	-1	-1	+6	+15	0.4
2037	33	MLB	CIN	512	463	103	16	1	10	40	116	4	3	4	.222	.290	.326	.616	.104	.271	23	8	.277	70	-17	-1	-2	+5	+15	0.0
2038	34	MLB	CIN	466	423	91	14	1	8	36	109	4	3	6	.215	.283	.310	.593	.095	.270	23	8	.271	65	-18	-2	-3	+5	+13	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8263	7510	1728	271	28	166	597	1802	81	134	72	.230	.294	.340	.634	.110	.279	22	7	.283	75	-233	-2	+14	+89	+234	10.4
/ 162G	—			650	591	135	21	2	13	47	142	6	11	6	.228	.292	.337	.629	.108	.277	22	7	.283	75	-18	-0	+1	+7	+18	0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Reds	130	112	29	5	4	6	13	29	3	8	4	.259	.352	.536	.887	.277	.291	22	10	.379	148	+7	+0	—	—	+4	1.1
2022	18	ROK	ACL Reds	168	143	46	6	2	4	18	42	5	13	1	.322	.416	.476	.891	.154	.424	25	11	.394	160	+11	+2	—	—	+5	1.9
2023	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	82	68	22	5	1	1	13	22	0	2	2	.324	.432	.471	.903	.147	.457	27	16	.400	164	+6	-0	—	—	+2	0.8
2024	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	410	390	103	13	2	6	14	100	4	9	4	.264	.297	.354	.650	.090	.339	24	3	.291	81	-9	+0	—	—	+12	0.3
2025	21	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	217	186	49	3	0	3	23	24	3	4	5	.263	.354	.328	.682	.065	.284	11	11	.310	95	-1	-1	—	—	+6	0.4
2025	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	343	305	80	17	1	9	29	51	5	4	0	.262	.336	.413	.749	.151	.286	15	8	.332	113	+5	+1	—	—	+10	1.6
2025	21	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	103	94	26	6	0	0	9	29	0	5	0	.277	.340	.340	.680	.064	.400	28	9	.311	97	-0	+1	—	—	+3	0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Leo Balcazar (OGILVIE)	22	30→47	40	50	40	.225/.277/.317	.092	.280	3	3	23%	6%	65	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Santana 2022 · AA	23	40	42→45	47→50	40	.200/.259/.300	.100	.270	10	10	29%	6%	53	-1.5	.216/.274/.342	.126	.277	14	9	26%	6%	70	-0.3	.207/.266/.330	.122	.258	15	7	25%	5%	61	-0.6
✕Danny Mendick 2016 · A	22	42→48	42→45	50	45	.208/.267/.309	.101	.252	10	9	21%	6%	59	-1.1	.205/.259/.296	.091	.257	7	9	22%	6%	52	-1.6	.231/.290/.367	.136	.277	16	15	22%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A	22	43	42→40	46→45	48	.209/.289/.317	.108	.281	9	6	28%	9%	70	-0.3	.221/.304/.311	.090	.312	8	6	29%	9%	75	-0.0	.236/.329/.308	.072	.330	7	6	28%	11%	83	+0.2
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	39→40	49→40	40	.198/.263/.282	.084	.277	6	7	29%	6%	50	-1.7	.218/.296/.304	.086	.283	8	4	24%	7%	70	-0.3	.219/.302/.289	.070	.280	7	1	22%	7%	69	-0.2
✕Gerson Montilla 2012 · AA	22	40→47	42→50	48→45	38	.201/.247/.307	.106	.262	9	8	27%	4%	50	-1.8	.224/.265/.347	.123	.269	13	6	22%	5%	67	-0.5	.227/.269/.349	.121	.270	13	5	21%	5%	66	-0.6
✕Yairo Muñoz 2017 · AA	22	42→52	42→50	44→55	40	.211/.248/.312	.101	.259	10	7	23%	4%	50	-1.7	.242/.281/.366	.124	.299	13	14	23%	5%	79	+0.3	.270/.315/.386	.116	.325	11	18	20%	5%	92	+0.6
✕Livan Soto 2022 · AA	22	37→47	39→40	49→50	43	.183/.239/.268	.085	.247	7	10	28%	7%	36	-2.7	.222/.288/.312	.090	.301	7	10	27%	8%	68	-0.5	.234/.306/.318	.084	.309	7	8	25%	9%	75	-0.0
✕Corey Joyce 2021 · A	22	44	40→45	50	40	.212/.268/.307	.095	.307	8	8	32%	6%	58	-1.2	.203/.290/.313	.110	.295	11	12	32%	9%	70	-0.3	.212/.315/.318	.105	.301	9	14	29%	10%	80	+0.2
✕Ramón Rodríguez 2022 · AA	23	43	43→40	47→45	41	.215/.260/.324	.109	.274	11	5	26%	5%	59	-1.1	.223/.275/.317	.094	.260	10	8	18%	6%	63	-0.8	.219/.280/.315	.096	.240	11	8	14%	7%	64	-0.3
✕Luis Vázquez 2023 · AAA	23	42→46	42→50	46→45	38	.209/.255/.311	.102	.286	10	11	30%	5%	53	-1.5	.226/.285/.358	.132	.298	15	9	28%	6%	79	+0.3	.230/.295/.366	.136	.298	17	8	27%	6%	82	+0.3
✕Charles Leblanc 2018 · A	22	44→53	42→50	50→45	44	.217/.264/.313	.096	.262	10	7	22%	6%	57	-1.2	.216/.265/.303	.087	.304	7	5	29%	6%	55	-1.4	.220/.306/.364	.144	.310	17	7	32%	10%	86	+0.6
✕Adan Velazquez 2012 · AAA	22	42→52	40→45	49→50	39	.202/.258/.299	.098	.284	7	9	30%	5%	52	-1.6	.234/.276/.330	.096	.298	8	8	23%	5%	66	-0.6	.246/.284/.346	.100	.296	10	4	20%	4%	72	-0.2
✕Ramon Soto 2010 · AAA	22	47	39→30	47→45	43	.227/.276/.306	.079	.283	8	10	22%	6%	61	-1.0	.240/.283/.304	.064	.290	4	8	18%	5%	63	-0.9	.272/.316/.326	.054	.333	2	7	18%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Blaze Alexander 2021 · A	22	45→48	42→50	51→50	43	.218/.284/.328	.110	.300	9	11	29%	7%	71	-0.3	.204/.275/.332	.128	.317	14	12	38%	7%	69	-0.4	.220/.308/.345	.126	.328	13	10	34%	8%	84	+0.4
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2022 · A	22	41→51	41→45	48→50	38	.204/.251/.304	.100	.277	9	9	29%	5%	50	-1.7	.233/.286/.332	.099	.320	10	11	29%	6%	72	-0.2	.231/.292/.316	.084	.322	9	12	29%	7%	67	-0.4
✕Eric Fryer 2008 · A	22	39→49	40→45	45→50	42	.195/.249/.284	.089	.258	7	7	27%	6%	44	-2.1	.241/.298/.354	.113	.308	9	10	24%	6%	82	+0.5	.247/.311/.365	.118	.317	10	11	23%	7%	87	+0.6
✕Jacob Amaya 2022 · AA	23	40→45	43→45	46→45	47	.201/.269/.310	.110	.259	11	5	26%	8%	59	-1.1	.212/.281/.334	.122	.273	14	6	26%	8%	71	-0.3	.209/.281/.325	.116	.268	12	6	26%	9%	66	-0.5
✕Adolfo Gonzalez 2007 · AA	22	45	42→40	46→45	38	.219/.258/.325	.106	.283	9	6	26%	4%	58	-1.2	.239/.274/.331	.092	.323	7	7	27%	4%	66	-0.6	.250/.282/.333	.083	.338	6	6	27%	4%	66	-0.3
●Cody Freeman 2023 · A	22	40→50	43→50	48→50	45	.202/.262/.307	.106	.239	12	9	21%	6%	56	-1.3	.214/.261/.345	.131	.252	15	9	21%	5%	66	-0.6	.230/.273/.378	.148	.260	18	9	19%	5%	77	+0.1
✕Mark Mathias 2017 · AA	22	46	40→50	50	42	.220/.280/.319	.099	.299	6	8	27%	6%	66	-0.6	.214/.284/.325	.111	.289	8	10	27%	7%	70	-0.3	.243/.319/.380	.137	.317	15	17	26%	9%	97	+0.9

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)