Leo Balcazar

SS Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 23 R/R 5'10" / 190 lbs AA HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

AA40-MANPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#656ETA2030MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	20	A+CIN	410	.264/.297/.354	6	9	45	—	.224/.252/.293
2025	21	AA/A+/INTL2 orgs	663	.265/.343/.374	12	13	81	—	.247/.307/.345
2026	22	AAA/AACIN	594	.239/.329/.364	12	3	65	—	.213/.282/.312
2027PROJ10% MLB	23	MLBCIN	21	.227/.290/.329	0	0	73	0.0
2028PROJ28% MLB	24	MLBCIN	139	.231/.295/.342	3	1	78	0.1
2029PROJ38% MLB	25	MLBCIN	203	.233/.297/.349	4	2	81	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$4M2033Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

K%78

Z-Con%74

BB%71

Whiff%64

Max EV50

Chase%42

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 12, comp-based) · star 5% · didn't stick 68%

CompsJacob Amaya (age 23) · Juan Fernandez (age 23) · Ramón Rodríguez (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .290 / .329

PA21

HR0

K%19

BB%5

BABIP273

ISO50

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$1M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	130	112	29	5	4	6	13	29	3	8	4	259	352	536	887	277	291	22	10	379	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	168	143	46	6	2	4	18	42	5	13	1	322	416	476	891	154	424	25	11	394	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	82	68	22	5	1	1	13	22	0	2	2	324	432	471	903	147	457	27	16	400	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	410	390	103	13	2	6	14	100	4	9	4	264	297	354	650	90	339	24	3	291	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	217	186	49	3	0	3	23	24	3	4	5	263	354	328	682	65	284	11	11	310	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	343	305	80	17	1	9	29	51	5	4	0	262	336	413	749	151	286	15	8	332	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	103	94	26	6	0	0	9	29	0	5	0	277	340	340	680	64	400	28	9	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	151	132	31	9	1	2	19	25	0	1	1	235	331	364	695	129	276	17	13	316	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	443	390	94	16	1	10	46	88	5	2	5	241	328	364	692	123	287	20	10	315	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	130	116	19	3	3	3	9	36	3	8	4	164	242	319	561	155	190	28	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	168	150	33	4	1	3	11	60	5	13	1	220	295	320	615	100	332	36	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	82	72	19	4	1	1	9	30	0	2	2	264	346	389	735	125	406	37	11	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	410	393	88	11	2	4	11	126	4	9	4	224	252	293	545	69	313	31	3	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	217	194	52	3	0	3	15	29	3	4	5	268	330	330	660	62	288	13	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	343	313	73	15	1	7	21	65	5	4	0	233	292	355	647	121	264	19	6	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	151	137	28	8	1	1	14	30	0	1	1	204	278	299	577	95	249	20	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	443	404	87	15	1	8	33	107	5	2	5	215	283	317	600	101	272	24	7	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	130	116	19	3	3	3	9	36	3	8	4	164	242	319	561	155	203	28	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	—	130	112	29	5	4	6	13	29	3	8	4	259	352	536	887	277	291	22	10	379	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	168	150	33	4	1	3	11	60	5	13	1	220	295	320	615	100	337	36	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	—	168	143	46	6	2	4	18	42	5	13	1	322	416	476	891	154	424	25	11	394	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	82	72	19	4	1	1	9	30	0	2	2	264	346	389	735	125	429	37	11	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	—	82	68	22	5	1	1	13	22	0	2	2	324	432	471	903	147	457	27	16	400	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	410	393	88	11	2	4	11	126	4	9	4	224	252	293	545	69	317	31	3	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	410	390	103	13	2	6	14	100	4	9	4	264	297	354	650	90	339	24	3	291	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	663	603	147	21	1	11	43	111	8	13	5	244	303	337	639	93	279	17	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	663	585	155	26	1	12	61	104	8	13	5	265	343	374	717	109	301	16	9	322	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	594	541	116	23	2	10	47	137	5	3	6	214	283	320	603	105	268	23	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	594	522	125	25	2	12	65	113	5	3	6	239	329	364	693	125	284	19	11	315	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	130	117	19	3	3	3	9	36	3	8	4	162	242	316	558	154	190	28	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	168	150	33	4	1	3	11	60	5	13	1	220	295	320	615	100	332	36	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	82	73	19	4	1	1	9	30	0	2	2	260	346	384	729	123	406	37	11	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	410	392	88	11	2	4	11	126	4	9	4	224	252	293	546	69	313	31	3	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	663	607	147	21	1	11	43	111	8	13	5	242	303	334	637	92	273	17	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	594	537	116	23	2	10	47	137	5	3	6	216	283	322	605	106	266	23	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	410	392	88	11	2	4	11	126	4	9	4	224	252	293	546	69	313	31	3	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	663	607	147	21	1	11	43	111	8	13	5	242	303	334	637	92	273	17	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	594	537	116	23	2	10	47	137	5	3	6	216	283	322	605	106	266	23	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CIN	10%	648	591	133	23	2	10	46	134	6	6	5	226	288	324	612	98	272	21	7	277	73	-20	-1	+3	+7	+14	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	CIN	10%	21	20	4	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	227	290	329	618	101	273	19	5	279	73	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CIN	28%	504	457	105	18	2	9	37	103	5	4	4	229	293	336	628	106	274	20	7	283	78	-13	-1	+3	+5	+11	0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	CIN	38%	537	487	113	20	2	10	40	110	5	4	4	231	295	342	638	111	275	20	7	287	81	-12	-1	+3	+6	+12	0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	CIN	44%	560	508	118	21	2	11	42	115	5	4	4	232	297	345	642	114	276	21	8	289	82	-12	-1	+3	+6	+12	0.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	CIN	46%	569	516	119	21	2	11	43	119	5	4	4	231	297	346	643	115	276	21	8	290	82	-12	-1	+3	+6	+12	0.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	CIN	47%	568	515	118	21	2	11	43	120	5	2	4	230	296	345	641	114	276	21	8	289	82	-12	-1	+2	+6	+12	0.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	CIN	47%	558	506	116	20	2	11	42	119	5	1	3	228	294	339	633	111	275	21	8	285	79	-14	-1	+1	+6	+12	0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	CIN	47%	547	497	113	20	2	10	41	119	4	1	3	225	290	332	622	106	274	22	7	281	76	-15	-1	+1	+6	+12	0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	CIN	28%	139	127	29	5	0	3	10	28	1	1	1	231	295	342	636	110	275	20	7	286	78	-4	-0	+1	+1	+3	0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	CIN	38%	203	184	43	7	1	4	15	42	2	2	2	233	297	349	646	116	276	21	7	290	81	-5	-0	+1	+2	+4	0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	CIN	44%	244	222	52	9	1	5	18	50	2	2	2	233	299	352	651	119	277	20	7	292	82	-5	-0	+1	+3	+5	0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	CIN	46%	261	237	55	9	1	6	20	54	2	2	2	233	299	353	652	120	277	21	8	293	82	-6	-0	+1	+3	+6	0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	CIN	47%	268	244	57	10	1	6	20	57	2	1	2	232	298	352	650	119	277	21	7	292	82	-6	-1	+1	+3	+6	0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	CIN	47%	261	237	54	9	1	5	20	56	2	0	2	230	295	345	641	115	276	21	8	288	79	-6	-1	+1	+3	+6	0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	CIN	47%	255	232	53	9	1	5	19	55	2	0	1	227	292	338	630	111	274	22	7	284	76	-7	-0	+0	+3	+6	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1631	1483	343	58	6	34	122	342	13	8	12	231	295	347	643	116	277	21	7	290	75	-39	-3	+6	+17	+35	1.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	137	23	2	14	49	136	5	3	5	232	296	349	645	117	277	21	8	290	75	-15	-1	+2	+7	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	6100	5552	1267	214	25	108	433	1348	61	70	50	228	291	334	625	106	280	22	7	279	75	-98	-7	+16	+43	+88	4.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	136	23	3	12	46	144	6	7	5	230	292	340	631	110	282	22	7	279	75	-16	-1	+3	+7	+14	0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 443 PAwOBA .307 → .267 (−40)K% 19.9% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.86%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	24.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.38%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×1.042	7.36%
HBP% /PA	1.13%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	0.99%
Singles /BIP	22.19%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.999	×1.042	21.24%
Doubles /BIP	5.30%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.999	×1.042	5.02%
Triples /BIP	0.33%	÷1.000	×0.880	×0.999	×1.042	0.30%
Home runs /BIP	3.31%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.042	2.76%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .307 → .267; ISO .123 → .106; BABIP .287 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 151 PAwOBA .309 → .259 (−50)K% 16.6% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.56%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	19.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.58%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	9.12%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	17.76%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.959	×1.050	16.62%
Doubles /BIP	8.41%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.959	×1.050	7.03%
Triples /BIP	0.93%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.959	×1.050	0.91%
Home runs /BIP	1.87%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	1.37%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.

Result: wOBA .309 → .259; ISO .129 → .105; BABIP .276 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Dayton Dragons · 343 PAwOBA .327 → .279 (−48)K% 14.9% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.87%	÷0.999	×1.270	—	—	18.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.45%	÷1.006	×0.710	—	×1.027	6.13%
HBP% /PA	1.46%	—	×0.790	—	×1.027	1.18%
Singles /BIP	20.87%	÷0.987	×0.920	×0.989	×1.027	19.75%
Doubles /BIP	6.69%	÷0.928	×0.810	×0.989	×1.027	5.93%
Triples /BIP	0.39%	÷0.900	×0.850	×0.989	×1.027	0.38%
Home runs /BIP	3.54%	÷1.124	×0.800	—	×1.027	2.59%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 97, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .327 → .279; ISO .151 → .120; BABIP .286 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 217 PAwOBA .307 → .289 (−17)K% 11.1% → 13.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.06%	÷1.010	×1.220	—	—	13.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.60%	÷1.087	×0.680	—	×1.050	6.96%
HBP% /PA	1.38%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	1.22%
Singles /BIP	26.54%	÷0.963	×0.920	×1.024	×1.050	27.26%
Doubles /BIP	1.85%	÷1.092	×0.910	×1.024	×1.050	1.66%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.001	×0.880	×1.024	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.85%	÷1.021	×0.800	—	×1.050	1.52%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 93, 2B 118, 3B 100, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .307 → .289; ISO .065 → .057; BABIP .284 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 410 PAwOBA .284 → .235 (−49)K% 24.4% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.39%	÷1.006	×1.270	—	—	30.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.41%	÷0.976	×0.710	—	×1.042	2.59%
HBP% /PA	0.98%	—	×0.790	—	×1.042	0.80%
Singles /BIP	28.28%	÷1.023	×0.920	×1.000	×1.042	26.48%
Doubles /BIP	4.48%	÷0.941	×0.810	×1.000	×1.042	4.02%
Triples /BIP	0.69%	÷1.030	×0.850	×1.000	×1.042	0.59%
Home runs /BIP	2.07%	÷1.285	×0.800	—	×1.042	1.34%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 106, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .284 → .235; ISO .090 → .064; BABIP .339 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 82 PAwOBA .395 → .312 (−83)K% 26.8% → 36.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.83%	÷1.006	×1.360	—	—	36.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.85%	÷1.006	×0.690	—	×1.045	11.37%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.00%
Singles /BIP	32.61%	÷1.032	×0.920	—	×1.045	30.37%
Doubles /BIP	10.87%	÷1.100	×0.830	—	×1.045	8.57%
Triples /BIP	2.17%	÷1.083	×0.910	—	×1.045	1.91%
Home runs /BIP	2.17%	÷1.060	×0.800	—	×1.045	1.71%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 106, 2B 120, 3B 117, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .395 → .312; ISO .147 → .111; BABIP .457 → .406. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Reds · 168 PAwOBA .389 → .275 (−114)K% 25.0% → 35.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷1.005	×1.440	—	—	35.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.71%	÷1.011	×0.620	—	×1.022	6.72%
HBP% /PA	2.98%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	2.19%
Singles /BIP	33.66%	÷1.022	×0.820	×0.986	×1.022	27.23%
Doubles /BIP	5.94%	÷1.035	×0.720	×0.986	×1.022	4.17%
Triples /BIP	1.98%	÷0.983	×0.720	×0.986	×1.022	1.46%
Home runs /BIP	3.96%	÷0.970	×0.780	—	×1.022	3.26%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 97, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .389 → .275; ISO .154 → .110; BABIP .424 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 DSLDSL Reds · 130 PAwOBA .375 → .234 (−141)K% 22.3% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.31%	÷0.995	×1.220	—	—	27.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷0.979	×0.700	—	×1.022	7.31%
HBP% /PA	2.31%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	1.65%
Singles /BIP	16.87%	÷0.998	×0.680	×1.022	×1.022	12.00%
Doubles /BIP	6.02%	÷0.977	×0.600	×1.022	×1.022	3.87%
Triples /BIP	4.82%	÷0.998	×0.600	×1.022	×1.022	3.03%
Home runs /BIP	7.23%	÷1.104	×0.470	—	×1.022	3.15%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 100, 2B 95, 3B 100, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .375 → .234; ISO .277 → .143; BABIP .291 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	5.1	3,369	19	74	240*	300*	338*	+36	+27	7.8	7.7
/162	664	4	15	+7.1	+5.3	1.5	pk7: 8
#3Deivi Cruz'97-'05 * career totals — 9 seasons, 4,375 PA	6.6	4,375	70	16	258*	282*	376*	+44	+19	6.1	6.4
/162	664	11	2	+6.7	+2.9	0.9	pk7: 7
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5Carlos Sanchez'14-'22 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,503 PA	3.8	2,503	32	30	248*	305*	353*	+8	+0	2.1	2.6
/162	664	8	8	+2.0	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 3
#6Frank Duffy'70-'79 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,924 PA	4.4	2,924	26	49	234*	283*	348*	+30	-2	0.9	2.1
/162	664	6	11	+6.7	-0.5	0.2	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.5	1,651	32	8	230	292	342	+18	+7	2.1	2.1
/162	664	13	3	+7.1	+2.8	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Leo Balcazar (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	224/286/321	97	272	3	2	21%	7%	73	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jacob Amaya 2022 · AA	23	41→47	43→45	48→45	47	203/269/312	108	262	11	6	26%	8%	65	-1.2	220/290/337	117	281	12	7	25%	9%	78	-0.3	218/291/330	112	279	11	6	25%	9%	75	-0.4
✕Juan Fernandez 2022 · AA	23	43→53	45→40	47→50	44	218/279/339	121	277	13	7	26%	7%	75	-0.5	242/301/325	83	299	7	10	20%	6%	79	-0.2	250/311/317	67	305	5	11	19%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Ramón Rodríguez 2022 · AA	23	43	43→40	47→45	40	214/258/319	105	272	11	5	26%	5%	61	-1.5	221/274/313	92	256	9	8	17%	6%	67	-1.1	216/277/308	92	237	10	8	14%	7%	65	-0.5
✕Ray Chang 2007 · AAA	23	43→53	42→40	45→40	43	212/271/316	104	278	9	5	27%	6%	67	-1.1	230/286/328	98	288	6	4	21%	6%	74	-0.5	253/311/344	91	295	6	1	15%	6%	85	+0.1
✕Alika Williams 2023 · AAA	24	42→45	42→45	43→45	44	210/266/307	97	266	10	7	25%	6%	62	-1.4	225/280/328	103	288	9	7	24%	6%	72	-0.7	245/294/352	106	307	8	5	22%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Gilberto Galaviz 2015 · AAA	23	49	42→40	47→30	41	238/274/341	103	284	9	6	20%	4%	73	-0.6	256/296/336	80	295	6	5	15%	4%	79	-0.2	262/301/308	46	294	3	1	11%	4%	71	-0.3
✕Kevin Flores 2008 · AAA	23	47→49	42→40	47→45	42	228/273/333	104	287	9	10	24%	5%	70	-0.8	231/279/312	81	293	5	8	22%	6%	68	-1.0	271/313/347	76	348	4	1	22%	4%	85	+0.1
✕Luis Santana 2022 · AA	23	40	43→45	47→50	40	202/261/310	108	272	11	10	29%	6%	61	-1.5	216/274/340	124	275	14	9	26%	6%	74	-0.6	207/266/326	119	257	14	7	25%	5%	64	-0.8
✕Tony Cruz 2010 · AA	23	44→39	44→45	50→40	42	220/260/342	122	264	11	4	22%	5%	68	-1.0	230/274/345	115	286	9	3	22%	6%	74	-0.6	240/283/351	112	295	8	0	21%	5%	77	-0.2
✕Luis Vázquez 2023 · AAA	23	43→47	42→45	45→50	39	213/260/312	99	288	10	11	29%	5%	61	-1.5	230/291/355	125	302	14	9	27%	6%	83	+0.1	233/299/360	126	304	15	8	27%	7%	84	+0.1
✕J.C. Millan 2019 · AA	23	43	40	48→30	43	210/260/303	93	264	8	8	23%	6%	59	-1.7	226/272/327	101	277	9	6	21%	6%	69	-0.9	231/271/321	91	275	9	2	19%	5%	63	-0.7
✕Andre Lipcius 2022 · AA	24	44→51	44→45	48→45	46	217/277/336	119	277	11	7	25%	8%	73	-0.6	237/308/366	129	294	13	8	23%	9%	92	+0.7	239/311/369	131	295	15	7	23%	9%	91	+0.6
✕Jose Castaneda 2008 · AAA	23	47→48	41→45	50→40	47	226/290/328	102	274	9	11	20%	7%	76	-0.4	247/305/322	75	312	5	6	21%	6%	80	-0.1	249/297/342	92	328	8	2	25%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Gilberto Celestino 2022 · MLB	23	47→53	43→45	47→55	46	228/290/343	116	292	11	8	25%	7%	80	-0.2	234/308/327	93	303	7	9	23%	9%	82	+0.0	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Alberth Martinez 2014 · AAA	23	43→50	46→50	54→45	44	215/271/352	137	266	11	10	24%	6%	75	-0.5	230/277/346	116	281	12	6	22%	6%	75	-0.5	226/272/338	112	274	12	5	22%	5%	69	-0.8
✕Tanner Schobel 2024 · AA	23	45→44	43→45	53→50	48	219/290/326	107	277	11	10	24%	8%	76	-0.4	200/271/309	109	265	11	11	27%	8%	65	-1.2	188/262/291	103	248	10	12	27%	8%	55	-1.4
✕Pete Kozma 2011 · AA	23	43→47	41→45	49→50	45	212/267/309	97	268	8	8	24%	7%	63	-1.4	207/257/298	91	262	7	7	23%	6%	56	-1.9	204/262/272	68	250	4	9	19%	6%	52	-1.2
✕Michael Almanzar 2014 · AA	23	47→51	45	48→45	41	235/277/356	121	290	12	9	24%	5%	78	-0.3	220/264/325	105	278	10	5	24%	4%	65	-1.2	203/246/297	94	261	9	2	25%	4%	50	-1.6
✕Colton Welker 2022 · MLB	24	42→52	45	47→45	44	212/269/332	119	269	12	5	26%	7%	70	-0.9	228/312/329	101	300	9	8	25%	10%	85	+0.2	218/335/249	31	301	0	6	23%	13%	74	-0.2
✕Chadwick Tromp 2018 · AA	23	45	40→45	46→40	41	220/264/309	89	279	7	4	24%	5%	61	-1.5	230/289/350	120	286	12	5	23%	7%	81	-0.1	213/268/329	116	264	13	1	24%	6%	65	-0.5

Leo Balcazar

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps