Luis Ariza

SS FCL Rays

Age 23 R/R 5'11" / 155 lbs ROK HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	20	ROKTB	70	.217/.319/.367	1	1	24	—	.156/.217/.281
2025	21	ROKTB	65	.173/.338/.212	0	0	11	—	.109/.246/.127
2027PROJ0% MLB	23	MLBTB	175	.196/.267/.279	2	2	56	-0.1
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBTB	31	.202/.273/.292	0	0	60	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

Chase%49

Z-Con%43

BB%41

Whiff%39

K%34

wRC+27

CompsAndrés Alvarez (age 24) · Shane Zeile (age 23) · Chris Hess (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 49 proj PA

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .265 / .277

PA49

HR0

K%31

BB%7

ISO83

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Rays 1	—	173	153	39	10	1	3	15	47	3	4	4	255	333	392	725	137	343	27	9	324	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	191	159	38	6	1	1	23	40	7	6	2	239	360	308	668	69	308	21	12	313	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Rays	—	69	64	18	5	0	1	4	14	1	0	0	281	333	406	740	125	347	20	6	332	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	FCL Rays	—	70	60	13	4	1	1	9	15	0	1	0	217	319	367	686	150	267	21	13	306	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK	FCL Rays	—	65	52	9	2	0	0	8	16	5	0	0	173	338	212	550	38	250	25	12	279	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	—	173	158	25	5	1	2	10	58	3	4	4	158	222	241	463	82	224	34	6	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	191	166	26	4	1	0	16	50	7	6	2	157	259	193	452	36	212	26	8	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	69	65	13	3	0	1	3	20	1	0	0	200	246	292	539	92	280	29	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	70	64	10	3	1	1	5	22	0	1	0	156	217	281	499	125	198	31	7	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	65	55	6	1	0	0	5	23	5	0	0	109	246	127	373	18	193	35	8	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	—	173	158	25	5	1	2	10	58	3	4	4	158	222	241	463	82	230	34	6	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 1	—	173	153	39	10	1	3	15	47	3	4	4	255	333	392	725	137	343	27	9	324	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	191	166	26	4	1	0	16	50	7	6	2	157	259	193	452	36	220	26	8	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	—	191	159	38	6	1	1	23	40	7	6	2	239	360	308	668	69	308	21	12	313	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	69	65	13	3	0	1	3	20	1	0	0	200	246	292	539	92	273	29	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	—	69	64	18	5	0	1	4	14	1	0	0	281	333	406	740	125	347	20	6	332	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	70	64	10	3	1	1	5	22	0	1	0	156	217	281	499	125	214	31	7	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	—	70	60	13	4	1	1	9	15	0	1	0	217	319	367	686	150	267	21	13	306	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	65	55	6	1	0	0	5	23	5	0	0	109	246	127	373	18	188	35	8	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	—	65	52	9	2	0	0	8	16	5	0	0	173	338	212	550	38	250	25	12	279	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	—	173	158	25	5	1	2	10	58	3	4	4	158	222	241	463	82	224	34	6	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	191	166	26	4	1	0	16	50	7	6	2	157	259	193	452	36	212	26	8	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	69	65	13	3	0	1	3	20	1	0	0	200	246	292	539	92	280	29	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	70	65	10	3	1	1	5	22	0	1	0	154	217	277	494	123	198	31	7	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	65	55	6	1	0	0	5	23	5	0	0	109	246	127	373	18	193	35	8	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	70	65	10	3	1	1	5	22	0	1	0	154	217	277	494	123	198	31	7	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	65	55	6	1	0	0	5	23	5	0	0	109	246	127	373	18	193	35	8	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TB	0%	175	157	31	6	1	2	13	55	3	2	1	196	267	279	546	83	285	31	7	251	56	-9	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TB	30%	104	93	19	4	1	1	8	32	2	1	0	200	271	291	562	91	287	31	8	257	60	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	TB	30%	31	29	5	1	0	0	2	10	0	0	0	202	273	292	565	90	290	32	6	258	60	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	31	29	5	1	0	0	2	10	0	0	0	172	226	207	433	34	263	32	6	258	33	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	608	105	21	0	0	42	210	0	0	0	173	226	207	433	35	264	32	6	258	33	-31	+0	+0	+7	+14	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	721	645	107	22	4	5	51	220	19	12	6	166	248	236	483	70	239	31	7	217	33	-8	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	98	20	4	5	46	198	17	11	5	169	250	243	492	74	243	30	7	217	33	-32	+1	+0	+7	+14	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Ariza (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	194/265/277	83	285	0	0	31%	7%	56	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Andrés Alvarez 2021 · A	24	41→32	37→45	48→50	42	194/258/268	74	273	4	7	29%	6%	51	-2.3	203/269/323	120	290	13	15	33%	8%	68	-1.0	184/253/304	120	257	14	15	33%	8%	56	-1.0
✕Shane Zeile 2016 · A	23	39	38→50	48→40	41	192/244/271	80	264	5	4	28%	6%	46	-2.6	207/254/311	104	280	8	6	28%	5%	58	-1.7	199/242/333	134	259	9	3	26%	4%	58	-0.7
✕Chris Hess 2018 · A	23	39→34	37→45	48→30	39	186/244/267	82	276	3	5	32%	6%	45	-2.7	189/248/290	101	279	9	4	34%	5%	53	-2.1	174/235/282	108	252	11	1	34%	4%	43	-2.2
✕Connor Justus 2018 · A	23	39→37	38→40	46→45	45	188/271/264	76	269	5	9	30%	8%	55	-1.9	179/259/251	72	255	5	8	29%	8%	48	-2.5	163/242/223	60	236	4	6	30%	7%	33	-2.4
✕Jorge Saez 2014 · A	23	37	39→45	49→30	43	185/244/267	82	251	7	6	28%	7%	45	-2.7	193/259/289	96	275	8	3	31%	8%	56	-1.9	206/268/336	130	281	18	3	33%	7%	68	-0.3
✕John Garcia 2024 · A	23	40	38→40	43→50	41	188/285/268	80	289	5	7	33%	7%	63	-1.4	200/275/295	95	295	9	11	33%	7%	64	-1.3	194/265/283	89	283	9	14	33%	7%	55	-1.1
✕Daniel Berg 2008 · A	23	36	39→40	45→40	38	178/242/260	81	271	6	4	35%	6%	42	-2.9	202/271/288	86	309	6	4	34%	7%	60	-1.6	200/276/284	83	307	6	2	34%	7%	59	-0.8
✕Grayson Greiner 2016 · A	23	37	38→45	46→30	37	180/234/253	73	279	6	3	36%	6%	38	-3.2	214/267/316	102	297	9	3	29%	6%	65	-1.2	220/280/330	110	294	10	0	27%	7%	71	-0.5
✕Ben Gobbel 2023 · A	23	41	36→45	47→50	40	196/255/263	68	278	4	7	30%	6%	48	-2.5	210/268/321	111	288	11	13	30%	6%	66	-1.1	216/266/339	123	276	15	11	27%	5%	67	-0.8
✕Tate Blackman 2018 · A	23	39→34	42→45	49→40	43	194/265/299	104	264	9	4	29%	7%	61	-1.5	177/248/271	94	297	10	4	41%	7%	48	-2.5	156/231/243	86	268	10	3	43%	7%	35	-2.4
✕Julio Carrion 2022 · A	23	38	38→40	50→45	42	184/263/262	78	274	6	5	33%	7%	52	-2.2	181/252/269	88	337	8	5	45%	7%	49	-2.4	154/227/236	82	311	9	4	49%	7%	30	-1.5
✕Nick Quintana 2021 · A	23	39→40	39→45	49→45	36	186/240/271	86	298	6	9	38%	6%	44	-2.8	181/264/286	105	253	11	5	31%	9%	58	-1.7	163/255/263	100	223	10	3	30%	9%	47	-1.3
✕Brandon Lewis 2021 · A	22	42→34	39→50	49→30	40	203/264/289	86	290	7	6	31%	6%	57	-1.8	196/250/365	169	289	23	3	39%	6%	71	-0.8	176/230/331	155	250	22	1	39%	5%	53	-1.4
✕Chris Okey 2018 · A	23	34	38→45	48→40	35	169/226/242	74	276	6	5	39%	6%	32	-3.6	182/235/282	100	271	11	4	35%	6%	45	-2.7	209/261/309	100	290	9	2	30%	5%	58	-0.5
✕Rowdey Jordan 2022 · A	23	43→42	39→45	43→55	45	205/272/288	82	296	6	8	31%	8%	60	-1.6	204/274/308	104	283	9	18	29%	8%	65	-1.2	196/266/309	112	271	12	23	31%	7%	61	-1.0
✕Tyler Grimes 2013 · A	23	37	42→40	46→40	40	181/259/285	104	283	9	8	37%	8%	56	-1.9	202/276/296	94	307	7	5	34%	7%	64	-1.3	201/277/286	85	307	6	2	34%	7%	60	-0.9
✕Grae Kessinger 2021 · A	23	43→30	39→45	50	47	208/276/293	85	264	7	12	23%	8%	63	-1.4	192/262/298	106	257	12	15	29%	8%	59	-1.6	186/264/278	92	250	9	8	27%	8%	55	-0.8
✕Carter Aldrete 2021 · A	23	45→41	39→50	47→45	46	213/282/299	85	292	6	7	27%	8%	66	-1.1	206/255/334	128	297	15	6	34%	6%	65	-1.2	198/247/334	136	272	17	5	33%	6%	60	-1.0
✕Caleb Hamilton 2019 · A	24	35	41→45	45	45	174/251/274	101	254	8	6	33%	9%	50	-2.3	187/255/288	101	273	9	8	33%	8%	54	-2.0	140/232/254	115	204	16	3	39%	10%	37	-1.0
✕Steven Baron 2014 · A	23	35	40→45	53→50	34	180/213/275	96	257	7	9	33%	4%	34	-3.5	216/263/300	84	296	5	9	27%	6%	59	-1.7	236/292/311	74	314	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4