Derwin Laya — OGILVIE

Derwin Laya3B ACL Giants

Age 22 R/R 6'3" / 187 lbs ROK HR -15%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 78 proj PA

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .272 / .298

PA6

HR0

K%28

BB%7

ISO91

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Giants Orange	—	153	130	34	10	0	3	18	26	5	1	2	262	373	408	780	146	307	17	12	355	126	+5	-1	—	—	+3	0.8
2022	18	ROK	ACL Giants Orange	—	157	135	25	1	0	3	19	49	1	0	0	185	290	259	550	74	259	31	12	258	61	-7	+0	—	—	+3	-0.4
2023	19	ROK	ACL Giants Orange	—	185	163	42	5	0	5	17	43	5	7	3	258	346	380	726	123	322	23	9	331	110	+2	+0	—	—	+4	0.7
2024	20	ROK	ACL Giants	—	168	138	40	5	1	2	22	33	4	0	0	290	402	384	786	94	355	20	13	354	126	+5	+0	—	—	+4	0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	—	153	137	25	6	0	2	11	40	5	1	2	182	268	270	538	88	240	26	7	243	51	-9	-1	—	—	+3	-0.6
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	—	157	142	19	1	0	2	12	69	1	0	0	134	206	183	390	49	222	44	8	179	7	-17	+0	—	—	+3	-1.4
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	—	185	170	31	3	0	3	10	60	5	7	3	182	249	253	502	71	263	32	5	223	37	-14	+0	—	—	+4	-1.0
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	—	168	147	33	4	1	1	13	48	4	0	0	224	305	286	591	61	301	29	8	269	68	-6	+0	—	—	+4	-0.3
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	—	153	137	25	6	0	2	11	40	5	1	2	182	268	270	538	88	242	26	7	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	—	153	130	34	10	0	3	18	26	5	1	2	262	373	408	780	146	307	17	12	355	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	—	157	142	19	1	0	2	12	69	1	0	0	134	206	183	390	49	233	44	8	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	—	157	135	25	1	0	3	19	49	1	0	0	185	290	259	550	74	259	31	12	258	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	—	185	170	31	3	0	3	10	60	5	7	3	182	249	253	502	71	262	32	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	—	185	163	42	5	0	5	17	43	5	7	3	258	346	380	726	123	322	23	9	331	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	—	168	147	33	4	1	1	13	48	4	0	0	224	305	286	591	61	314	29	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	—	168	138	40	5	1	2	22	33	4	0	0	290	402	384	786	94	355	20	13	354	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	—	153	136	25	6	0	2	11	40	5	1	2	184	268	272	540	88	240	26	7	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	—	157	143	19	1	0	2	12	69	1	0	0	133	206	182	388	49	222	44	8	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	—	185	168	31	3	0	3	10	60	5	7	3	185	249	256	505	71	263	32	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	—	168	149	33	4	1	1	13	48	4	0	0	221	305	282	587	60	301	29	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	—	185	168	31	3	0	3	10	60	5	7	3	185	249	256	505	71	263	32	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	—	168	149	33	4	1	1	13	48	4	0	0	221	305	282	587	60	301	29	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	22	MLB MLE	SF	0%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	167	167	167	333		284	33	0	262	63	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SF	34%	114	104	23	4	1	2	8	31	1	1	0	221	283	337	620	115	286	27	7	273	71	-4	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	SF	46%	244	221	48	8	1	5	18	66	3	3	1	217	285	330	615	113	287	27	7	281	76	-7	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	SF	52%	331	299	67	11	2	7	25	88	4	4	1	224	293	344	637	120	288	27	8	286	80	-8	+0	+0	+1	+7	0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	SF	54%	387	350	78	13	2	9	29	103	5	5	2	223	292	349	640	126	288	27	7	289	82	-8	+0	+0	+1	+8	0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	SF	54%	417	377	84	14	2	10	32	111	5	5	2	223	292	350	642	127	288	27	8	289	82	-9	+0	+0	+1	+9	0.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	SF	54%	433	391	87	14	2	10	34	116	5	5	2	223	293	345	638	123	287	27	8	288	81	-10	+0	-1	+2	+9	0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	SF	53%	435	393	87	14	2	10	34	117	5	5	2	221	292	344	635	122	286	27	8	286	80	-11	+0	-1	+2	+9	-0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	SF	57%	432	390	85	14	2	9	34	118	5	4	1	218	289	333	622	115	285	27	8	283	78	-12	+0	-2	+2	+9	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	SF	34%	39	36	7	1	0	1	3	11	0	1	0	194	256	306	562	111	281	28	8	259	71	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	SF	46%	113	103	23	4	1	2	8	31	1	1	0	223	286	340	626	117	282	27	7	266	76	-3	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	SF	52%	171	154	34	6	1	3	13	46	2	2	1	221	290	331	621	110	283	27	8	271	80	-4	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	SF	54%	210	189	42	7	1	5	16	56	3	3	1	222	293	349	642	127	283	27	8	274	82	-5	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	SF	54%	226	204	44	7	1	5	17	60	3	3	1	216	286	333	619	118	282	27	8	274	82	-5	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	SF	54%	235	212	45	7	1	5	18	63	3	3	1	212	283	325	609	113	282	27	8	273	81	-5	+0	-0	+1	+5	0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	SF	53%	231	208	45	7	1	5	18	62	3	3	1	216	288	332	620	115	281	27	8	271	80	-6	+0	-1	+1	+5	-0.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	SF	57%	246	222	48	8	1	5	19	67	3	3	1	216	287	329	616	113	279	27	8	268	78	-7	+0	-1	+1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1471	1328	288	47	7	31	112	396	18	19	6	217	287	333	620	116	283	27	8	271	72	-36	+1	-2	+5	+32	0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	128	21	3	14	49	175	8	8	3	218	287	336	623	118	284	27	8	271	72	-16	+1	-1	+2	+14	0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	3462	3127	668	106	15	70	260	969	48	40	16	214	284	324	608	111	284	28	8	275	72	-68	+2	-4	+10	+61	0.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	126	20	3	13	49	182	9	8	3	215	285	325	611	111	285	28	8	275	72	-16	+0	-1	+2	+14	0.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.3	1,548	34	19	222	288	343	+6	+2	1.0	1.1
/162	664	15	8	+2.4	+1.1	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Derwin Laya (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	207/272/298	90	284	1	1	28%	7%	63	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Zach Green 2016 · A	22	42	40→55	49→40	39	208/248/301	93	281	8	6	28%	5%	53	-2.1	203/258/334	131	317	14	3	39%	5%	66	-1.1	194/261/373	179	295	22	1	40%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Jose Sibrian 2021 · A	22	43	38→50	49→30	39	204/261/283	79	291	5	6	30%	6%	55	-2.0	204/258/283	79	271	6	3	26%	5%	54	-2.0	202/260/295	93	255	9	0	24%	5%	55	-0.7
✕Corey Joyce 2021 · A	22	44	40	50	39	211/267/307	95	311	8	8	33%	6%	63	-1.4	201/290/309	108	293	11	12	33%	9%	74	-0.6	213/316/315	101	301	9	14	29%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Ramon Mendoza 2023 · A	22	40→49	37→45	48→45	44	187/265/261	75	278	4	7	32%	8%	52	-2.2	212/285/310	98	296	8	5	29%	8%	70	-0.8	230/307/340	110	300	10	3	25%	9%	83	+0.0
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A	22	42	42→40	46→45	48	206/291/311	105	278	9	6	28%	9%	73	-0.6	220/302/308	88	316	7	6	30%	9%	76	-0.4	234/327/306	73	330	7	6	28%	11%	84	+0.1
✕Devin Mann 2019 · A	22	44	38→50	46→45	48	208/284/291	83	279	5	9	26%	9%	65	-1.2	218/288/366	148	285	17	7	28%	8%	84	+0.2	210/294/364	154	277	16	4	29%	9%	85	+0.2
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	38→48	39→45	48→50	45	182/274/268	86	264	6	10	31%	8%	58	-1.7	206/278/301	95	283	7	11	28%	7%	66	-1.1	217/289/313	96	287	8	16	26%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/298/304	85	284	8	4	24%	7%	74	-0.5	216/302/271	55	271	5	1	21%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Glenn Santiago 2023 · A	22	41	41→40	46→45	39	201/255/297	96	286	8	8	32%	6%	55	-1.9	198/263/285	87	291	7	9	32%	7%	57	-1.8	182/254/257	75	267	7	8	32%	8%	46	-1.1
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	42	-2.9	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	65	-1.2	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	77	-0.1
✕Carlos Narváez 2021 · A	22	47→45	38→45	48→45	46	219/291/300	81	314	5	6	30%	9%	70	-0.8	192/280/305	113	303	13	5	37%	10%	68	-1.0	212/295/344	132	286	15	6	29%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Raul Beracierta 2021 · A	22	46	40→50	50	45	218/288/314	95	304	7	8	29%	8%	72	-0.7	218/267/347	129	329	14	6	36%	5%	72	-0.7	216/262/355	138	319	17	3	36%	5%	69	-0.4
✕Brandon Barnes 2008 · A	22	38→48	38→55	46→50	37	184/235/263	80	274	5	7	34%	5%	40	-3.0	201/240/316	115	298	11	6	35%	4%	54	-2.0	243/288/366	124	328	11	16	28%	5%	82	+0.0
✕Parker Meadows 2022 · A	22	36→46	42→55	43→55	40	183/242/280	97	259	10	9	32%	6%	47	-2.5	216/279/367	151	277	16	17	27%	8%	81	-0.1	222/289/387	165	276	18	21	26%	8%	87	+0.4
✕Deibinson Romero 2010 · A	23	41→45	40→50	46→40	43	200/264/290	90	277	7	5	29%	7%	58	-1.7	209/275/318	109	276	11	3	27%	7%	69	-0.9	223/296/348	126	274	12	2	22%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Adam Abraham 2009 · A	22	39→46	44→50	49→40	43	197/259/310	113	258	12	5	28%	7%	61	-1.5	217/273/330	113	277	10	4	24%	6%	70	-0.8	220/280/334	115	276	11	2	23%	7%	72	-0.3
✕Tyler Kolodny 2010 · A	22	40→36	43→45	49→50	41	200/271/316	116	273	11	8	30%	6%	67	-1.1	208/282/338	130	278	13	10	29%	6%	76	-0.4	207/287/352	145	264	16	10	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Blake Hunt 2021 · A	22	42	40→45	49→40	43	204/260/298	94	268	7	6	26%	6%	58	-1.7	192/251/306	114	277	11	4	33%	6%	57	-1.8	208/275/351	144	265	17	1	28%	7%	74	-0.2
✕Christopher Familia 2022 · A	22	42	38→55	47→45	43	200/270/287	86	279	5	10	28%	7%	59	-1.6	215/282/373	158	275	20	5	29%	7%	84	+0.2	208/273/389	181	258	25	2	30%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Javier Valdes 2021 · A	22	40	37→50	50→30	45	190/266/263	73	266	4	7	28%	8%	53	-2.1	211/295/322	111	281	11	5	27%	8%	78	-0.3	208/306/343	135	260	16	3	25%	9%	85	+0.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps