Dylan Ross

P Syracuse Mets

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 251 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	ANYM	1	0	1	0.00	-2.90	100.0%	0.0%	—	K 100.0% · BB 0.0% · FIP -5.34
2025	24	MIX3 levels	49	0	54	2.17	2.93	35.7%	14.7%	—	K 28.6% · BB 16.2% · FIP 3.02
2026	25	MIX4 levels	50	2	49	5.69	5.49	25.0%	16.7%	-0.5	K 22.1% · BB 15.9% · FIP 5.83
2027PROJ	26	MLBNYM	38	0	40	5.37	5.37	24.3%	17.1%	-0.4
2028PROJ74% MLB	27	MLBNYM	31	0	33	5.28	5.30	24.2%	16.4%	-0.3
2029PROJ80% MLB	28	MLBNYM	30	0	31	5.27	5.31	24.1%	16.0%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.5 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsDennis Sarfate (age 27) · Esmerling Vasquez (age 26) · Mitchell Stumpo (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.37

FIP5.37

K%24.3%

BB%17.1%

K-BB%7.2%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	23	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0%	1.0	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.00	-5.34	—
2024	23	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0%	1.0	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.00	-5.34	—
2024	23	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0%	1.0	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.00	-2.90	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	49	0	54	224	80	33	4	0%	1.1	28.6%	16.2%	12.4%	0.5%	2.17	3.02	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	49	0	54	224	80	33	4	0%	1.1	28.6%	16.2%	12.4%	0.5%	2.17	3.02	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	49	0	54	224	80	33	4	0%	1.1	35.7%	14.7%	21.0%	1.8%	2.17	2.93	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	50	2	49	228	57	38	9	4%	1.0	22.1%	15.9%	6.3%	4.7%	5.69	5.83	-0.7
2026	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	50	2	49	228	57	38	9	4%	1.0	22.1%	15.9%	6.3%	4.7%	5.69	5.83	-0.7
2026	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	50	2	49	228	57	38	9	4%	1.0	25.0%	16.7%	8.3%	3.9%	5.69	5.49	-0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	+0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	NYM	38	0	40	169	41	29	5	0%	1.1	24.3%	17.1%	7.2%	3.2%	5.37	5.37	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	NYM	43	0	45	190	46	31	6	0%	1.0	24.2%	16.4%	7.9%	3.3%	5.28	5.30	-0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	NYM	37	0	38	163	39	26	5	0%	1.0	24.1%	16.0%	8.0%	3.3%	5.27	5.31	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	NYM	31	0	33	139	34	23	5	0%	1.1	24.2%	16.4%	7.9%	3.3%	5.28	5.30	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	NYM	30	0	31	131	31	21	4	0%	1.0	24.1%	16.0%	8.0%	3.3%	5.27	5.31	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		62	0	65	273	65	44	9	0%	1.0	23.9%	16.0%	7.9%	3.3%	5.19	4.90	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	841	200	135	28	0%	1.0	23.9%	16.0%	7.9%	3.3%	5.19	4.90	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		100	2	104	455	118	72	12	2%	1.0	25.8%	15.9%	9.9%	2.6%	3.81	4.37	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		192	4	200	875	226	139	23	2%	1.0	25.8%	15.9%	9.9%	2.6%	3.81	4.37	-1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 44 IPFIP 5.51 → 5.83 (+0.32)K% 25.7% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.71%	—	×0.860	22.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.62%	—	×0.900	15.86%
HR / BF /BF	4.29%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.71%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.51 → 5.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASyracuse Mets · 32 IPFIP 3.13 → 3.25 (+0.12)K% 30.7% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.71%	—	×0.860	26.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.32%	—	×0.900	15.59%
HR / BF /BF	0.79%	÷1.167	×1.100	0.74%

Result: FIP 3.13 → 3.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 12 IPFIP 1.31 → 2.47 (+1.15)K% 44.2% → 34.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.23%	—	×0.770	34.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.38%	—	×1.150	17.69%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.073	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 1.31 → 2.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 10 IPFIP 4.23 → 5.73 (+1.50)K% 40.0% → 32.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.810	32.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.100	7.33%
HR / BF /BF	6.67%	÷0.990	×1.200	8.08%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 4.23 → 5.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Ross (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	5.30	24.2%	7.9%	83	-0.07	—	—	—
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	87
Esmerling Vasquez R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	26	SU	4.37	22.9%	14.6%	2.5%	.278	4.23	12.5%	1.5%	62	-0.14	3.70	204	87
Mitchell Stumpo R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	26	SU	4.55	24.0%	16.8%	2.4%	.225	5.67	21.5%	6.6%	78	+1.12	3.97	158	86
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	86
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	84
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	83
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	83
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	82
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	81
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	81
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	80
Matt Seelinger R 2021 · 5.37 FIP	26	SU	5.37	28.8%	18.3%	4.3%	.312	4.58	24.8%	12.2%	116	-0.79	3.13	371	80
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	80
LJ McDonough R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	22.6%	16.7%	2.3%	.385	4.85	20.0%	2.8%	90	+0.31	4.16	127	80
Addison Russ R 2021 · 4.58 FIP	26	SU	4.58	24.3%	15.5%	2.9%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	194	79
Braden Webb R 2021 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	25.2%	14.8%	4.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.48	308	79
Zac Leigh R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	26	SU	4.21	21.8%	15.4%	1.8%	.367	4.74	19.4%	2.7%	87	+0.53	3.70	201	79
Carter Loewen R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	23.1%	15.0%	2.2%	.312	4.16	20.0%	11.9%	23	-0.10	2.67	145	79
Manny Barreda R 2015 · 5.04 FIP	26	SU	5.04	21.2%	14.7%	3.4%	.286	3.69	19.6%	9.5%	186	-1.35	3.30	376	79
Dusty Isaacs R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	26	SU	5.26	19.3%	14.1%	3.7%	.287	3.16	26.8%	20.6%	26	-2.10	3.16	253	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	24.1%	16.5%	1.26	5.28
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*