Evan Yates

P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	A+Aberdeen Iron…	3	0	5	5.79	1.17	40.9%	13.6%	—	K 40.9% · BB 13.6% · FIP 1.37
2025	22	MIX3 levels	25	13	93	4.27	2.54	26.5%	10.1%	—	K 20.0% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.42
2026	23	MIX2 levels	25	23	116	4.73	4.05	20.0%	9.5%	—	K 16.0% · BB 10.5% · FIP 4.76
2027PROJ	24	MLBBAL	13	13	76	5.10	5.10	16.2%	11.2%	-0.2
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBBAL	8	8	46	5.00	4.95	17.5%	10.3%	0.0
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBBAL	12	12	71	4.90	4.87	18.2%	10.1%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.4M2034Ext$5M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control40Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 86%

CompsCarlos Sano (age 25) · Tyler Uberstine (age 23) · Jacob Meador (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%16.2%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%5.0%

Proj IP76

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	3	0	5	22	9	3	0	0%	1.6	40.9%	13.6%	27.3%	0.0%	5.79	1.37	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	3	0	5	22	9	3	0	0%	1.6	40.9%	13.6%	27.3%	0.0%	5.79	1.37	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	3	0	5	22	9	3	0	0%	1.6	40.9%	13.6%	27.3%	0.0%	5.79	1.17	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	13	93	404	107	41	3	52%	3.7	20.0%	11.6%	8.4%	1.0%	4.27	3.42	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	13	93	404	107	41	3	52%	3.7	20.0%	11.6%	8.4%	1.0%	4.27	3.42	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	13	93	404	107	41	3	52%	3.7	26.5%	10.1%	16.3%	0.7%	4.27	2.54	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	116	516	103	49	13	92%	4.6	16.0%	10.5%	5.5%	3.1%	4.73	4.76	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	116	516	103	49	13	92%	4.6	16.0%	10.5%	5.5%	3.1%	4.73	4.76	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	116	516	103	49	13	92%	4.6	20.0%	9.5%	10.5%	2.5%	4.73	4.05	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BAL	13	13	76	321	52	36	9	100%	5.8	16.2%	11.2%	5.0%	2.9%	5.10	5.10	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	106	446	78	46	13	100%	5.9	17.5%	10.3%	7.2%	2.9%	4.93	4.88	+0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	106	446	81	45	13	100%	5.9	18.2%	10.1%	8.1%	2.9%	4.83	4.80	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	104	440	81	44	13	100%	6.1	18.4%	10.0%	8.3%	2.9%	4.80	4.81	+0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	101	426	78	43	13	100%	5.9	18.3%	10.1%	8.2%	3.0%	4.84	4.88	+0.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	BAL	16	16	96	407	74	42	13	100%	6.0	18.1%	10.4%	7.7%	3.2%	4.94	5.01	-0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	91	383	68	41	13	100%	6.0	17.8%	10.7%	7.1%	3.4%	5.09	5.19	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	46	194	34	20	6	100%	5.8	17.5%	10.3%	7.2%	3.0%	5.00	4.95	+0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	71	300	55	30	9	100%	5.9	18.2%	10.1%	8.1%	3.0%	4.90	4.87	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	81	342	63	34	10	100%	5.8	18.4%	10.0%	8.3%	3.1%	4.87	4.88	+0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	85	359	66	36	11	100%	6.1	18.3%	10.1%	8.2%	3.2%	4.91	4.95	+0.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	85	359	65	37	12	100%	6.1	18.1%	10.4%	7.7%	3.3%	5.02	5.09	-0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	82	346	61	37	12	100%	5.9	17.8%	10.7%	7.1%	3.5%	5.17	5.27	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		75	75	449	1896	343	195	61	100%	6.0	18.1%	10.3%	7.8%	3.2%	4.98	4.63	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	153	87	27	100%	6.0	18.1%	10.3%	7.8%	3.2%	4.98	4.63	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		53	36	213	942	172	104	20	68%	4.0	18.3%	11.0%	7.2%	2.1%	4.56	4.11	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	34	200	883	161	98	19	68%	4.0	18.3%	11.0%	7.2%	2.1%	4.56	4.11	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Evan Yates (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	16.2%	11.2%	2.9%	—	4.83	18.0%	7.9%	316	-0.27	—	—	—
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	88
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	87
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	87
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	86
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	86
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.31	21.9%	11.8%	274	-0.96	3.83	543	86
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	86
Trenton Toplikar R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	14.8%	10.1%	2.2%	.248	5.39	16.5%	6.4%	123	+1.07	4.32	232	85
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	85
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	84
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	84
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	84
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	84
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	83
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	83
Brett Daniels R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	18.5%	12.1%	1.6%	.266	4.46	21.4%	7.9%	152	+0.51	3.95	270	83
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	83
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	83
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	82
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	97	17.8%	10.4%	1.17	4.92
Bob McGraw ('17-'29, -2 WAR*)	3.0	99	16.8%*	11.0%*	1.21*	5.01*
Jeff Juden ('99)	2.7	107	18.8%	10.5%	1.23	4.81
Micah Owings ('12)	2.4	97	16.4%	9.8%	1.19	4.86
Harry Perkowski ('47-'55, 3 WAR*)	3.5	100	17.5%*	9.9%*	1.05*	4.55*
Myles Thomas ('26-'30, -1 WAR*)	2.2	87	16.5%*	9.7%*	1.08*	4.91*
Alan Benes ('03)	2.5	99	18.6%	10.2%	1.07	4.59