Trent Hodgdon — OGILVIE

Trent Hodgdon P Dayton Dragons

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 151143vR 135

ERA6.23

FIP6.23

K%19.7%

BB%23.1%

K-BB%-3.3%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD3030

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	3	0	5	24	5	5	0	0%	1.8	20.8%	20.8%	0.0%	0.0%	6.75	3.98	—
2024	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	3	0	5	24	5	5	0	0%	1.8	20.8%	20.8%	0.0%	0.0%	6.75	3.98	—
2024	21	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	3	0	5	24	5	5	0	0%	1.8	20.8%	20.8%	0.0%	0.0%	6.75	4.04	—
2025	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	32	0	46	218	58	40	1	0%	1.4	19.7%	21.7%	-2.0%	0.6%	4.11	4.50	—
2025	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	32	0	46	218	58	40	1	0%	1.4	19.7%	21.7%	-2.0%	0.6%	4.11	4.50	—
2025	22	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	32	0	46	218	58	40	1	0%	1.4	26.6%	18.3%	8.3%	0.5%	4.11	3.47	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	36	0	52	239	75	45	6	0%	1.4	24.2%	21.7%	2.5%	3.1%	4.15	5.52	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	36	0	52	239	75	45	6	0%	1.4	24.2%	21.7%	2.5%	3.1%	4.15	5.52	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	CIN	36	0	52	239	75	45	6	0%	1.4	31.4%	18.8%	12.6%	2.5%	4.15	4.21	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CIN	51	0	54	227	47	44	6	0%	1.1	20.7%	19.6%	1.0%	2.7%	5.85	5.72	-0.7
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	52	0	54	230	49	40	6	0%	1.0	21.2%	17.4%	3.9%	2.7%	5.53	5.39	-0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	CIN	22	0	23	97	20	19	3	0%	1.0	20.7%	19.6%	1.0%	2.7%	5.85	5.72	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	34	0	36	152	32	26	4	0%	1.1	21.2%	17.4%	3.9%	2.7%	5.53	5.39	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	250	53	46	7	0%	1.1	21.0%	18.3%	2.8%	2.7%	5.65	5.14	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	155	24	0%	1.1	21.0%	18.3%	2.8%	2.7%	5.65	5.14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		71	0	103	481	106	104	9	0%	1.5	22.0%	21.6%	0.4%	1.8%	4.27	4.98	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	0	200	931	205	201	17	0%	1.5	22.0%	21.6%	0.4%	1.8%	4.27	4.98	-2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trent Hodgdon (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.23	19.7%	23.1%	2.7%	—	5.55	21.0%	2.5%	108	-0.68	—	—	—
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	87
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	86
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	86
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	85
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	85
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	84
Zach Barnes R 2022 · 5.35 FIP	23	SU	5.35	18.2%	22.0%	1.8%	.378	5.03	14.9%	1.5%	119	-0.32	4.90	145	84
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	84
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	83
Luis Ledo R 2018 · 5.51 FIP	23	SU	5.51	17.1%	17.6%	3.0%	.329	3.65	20.8%	8.0%	85	-1.86	3.27	376	83
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	83
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	83
Andrew Baker R 2023 · 5.99 FIP	23	SU	5.99	24.7%	25.1%	3.3%	.315	3.65	25.3%	12.2%	161	-2.34	3.44	256	82
Edward Baram R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	22	SU	5.05	18.5%	22.7%	1.2%	.354	5.57	15.4%	0.5%	95	+0.52	5.05	119	82
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	82
Stephen Nogosek R 2018 · 5.74 FIP	23	SU	5.74	19.4%	18.6%	3.5%	.237	3.01	24.8%	12.8%	85	-2.73	2.56	419	81
Josue Gerardo R 2016 · 5.33 FIP	23	SU	5.33	17.8%	23.5%	1.4%	.220	5.99	16.5%	-6.0%	30	+0.66	4.59	122	81
Johnathan Lavallee R 2023 · 6.17 FIP	23	SU	6.17	17.1%	18.6%	3.9%	.356	4.23	22.8%	9.6%	144	-1.94	3.72	210	80
Willian Suarez R 2021 · 5.23 FIP	23	SU	5.23	20.4%	17.3%	3.0%	.329	5.13	25.4%	9.5%	128	-0.10	3.99	219	80
Jacob Wallace R 2022 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	24.6%	21.6%	3.4%	.237	4.27	22.9%	10.2%	153	-1.32	3.50	279	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	20.6%	20.0%	1.06	5.87
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99