Trent Hodgdon
P
Dayton Dragons
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 151142vR 133
ERA5.90
FIP5.90
K%19.7%
BB%20.5%
K-BB%-0.7%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 3 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 20.8% | 20.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 3.98 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 3 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 20.8% | 20.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 4.04 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 32 | 0 | 46 | 218 | 58 | 40 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.7% | 21.7% | -2.0% | 0.6% | 4.11 | 4.49 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 32 | 0 | 46 | 218 | 58 | 40 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.6% | 18.3% | 8.3% | 0.5% | 4.11 | 3.47 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 21 | 0 | 28 | 137 | 43 | 32 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.2% | 26.9% | -2.7% | 2.7% | 4.50 | 5.96 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 44 | 45 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 20.5% | -0.7% | 2.7% | 5.90 | 5.90 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.7% | 20.5% | -0.7% | 2.7% | 5.90 | 5.90 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 80 | 358 | 87 | 77 | 9 | — | — | 24.2% | 21.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 5.41 | 5.92 | -0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.7% | 20.5% | -0.7% | 2.7% | 5.90 | 5.53 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 47 | 40 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 17.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 5.58 | 5.48 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 49 | 37 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 16.0% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 5.32 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 49 | 36 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 15.6% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 5.19 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 17.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 5.58 | 5.48 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 32 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 16.0% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 5.32 | 5.21 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 39 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 15.6% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 5.19 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 98 | 0 | 103 | 433 | 92 | 70 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 16.2% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 5.33 | 4.86 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 179 | 136 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 16.2% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 5.33 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 56 | 0 | 79 | 379 | 81 | 89 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.4% | 23.5% | -2.1% | 1.3% | 4.42 | 4.99 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 141 | 0 | 200 | 955 | 204 | 224 | 13 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.4% | 23.5% | -2.1% | 1.3% | 4.42 | 4.99 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trent Hodgdon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.90 | 19.7% | 20.5% | 2.7% | — | 5.28 | 21.2% | 4.7% | 162 | -0.62 | — | — | — |
| James Acuna R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.89 | 21.3% | 17.0% | 2.6% | .302 | 4.23 | 19.4% | 4.6% | 60 | -0.66 | 4.23 | 107 | 90 |
| Roberto Espinosa R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.02 | 18.9% | 18.6% | 2.1% | .273 | 4.46 | 14.8% | 2.2% | 77 | -0.56 | 4.32 | 117 | 90 |
| Hunter Mann R 2026 · 5.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.68 | 18.4% | 18.5% | 3.3% | .303 | 4.27 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 49 | -1.41 | 3.01 | 135 | 89 |
| Tommy DeJuneas R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.09 | 20.8% | 18.8% | 2.5% | .324 | 5.52 | 13.7% | -3.9% | 51 | +0.43 | 3.90 | 178 | 88 |
| Matt Brill R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.94 | 20.8% | 16.3% | 2.8% | .248 | 3.84 | 19.4% | 4.9% | 60 | -1.10 | 3.75 | 161 | 87 |
| Jacob Morris R 2027 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.72 | 18.0% | 19.6% | 3.0% | .218 | 4.72 | 18.7% | -2.4% | 46 | -1.00 | 4.72 | 102 | 87 |
| Luis Germán R 2026 · 5.67 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.67 | 16.0% | 19.6% | 2.6% | .305 | 8.13 | 12.2% | -10.4% | 19 | +2.46 | 5.21 | 115 | 86 |
| Sal Biasi R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.19 | 20.1% | 15.8% | 3.3% | .295 | 7.85 | 15.3% | -0.2% | 23 | +2.66 | 4.68 | 188 | 86 |
| Cody Adcock R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.54 | 18.6% | 16.5% | 3.5% | .253 | 3.69 | 25.7% | 3.9% | 26 | -1.85 | 3.34 | 139 | 85 |
| Morgan McSweeney R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.28 | 21.9% | 16.3% | 3.6% | .295 | 5.27 | 18.8% | 4.5% | 93 | -0.01 | 3.94 | 189 | 85 |
| Brett Lockwood R 2027 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 85 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.27 | 15.5% | 17.2% | 2.4% | .237 | 5.45 | 13.6% | -1.7% | 68 | +0.18 | 5.27 | 124 | 85 |
| Zane Russell R 2027 · 5.19 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.19 | 22.7% | 18.3% | 3.1% | .314 | 5.10 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 71 | -0.09 | 4.28 | 108 | 85 |
| Cody Scroggins R 2027 · 5.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.62 | 17.4% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .263 | 4.25 | 18.6% | 4.4% | 59 | -1.37 | 3.67 | 108 | 84 |
| Juan Mendez R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.99 | 21.0% | 17.9% | 2.5% | .279 | 5.09 | 22.5% | 7.9% | 82 | +0.10 | 3.55 | 156 | 84 |
| Luis De La Cruz R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.65 | 20.6% | 23.1% | 2.5% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 139 | 84 |
| Samuel Carpio R 2026 · 5.99 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.99 | 20.2% | 27.1% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.32 | 112 | 84 |
| Jackson Rose R 2025 · 5.32 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.32 | 17.3% | 17.2% | 2.8% | .267 | 4.58 | 23.5% | 16.5% | 56 | -0.74 | 3.55 | 147 | 84 |
| Adam Boucher R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.94 | 18.4% | 19.6% | 1.7% | .294 | 7.99 | 15.1% | -14.7% | 30 | +3.05 | 4.94 | 126 | 83 |
| Andrew Baker R 2026 · 5.91 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.91 | 24.7% | 25.1% | 3.1% | .315 | 3.07 | 26.1% | 14.0% | 146 | -2.84 | 1.85 | 241 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 54 | 20.8% | 17.4% | 1.06 | 5.49 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |