Josh Randall
P
Wilmington Blue Rocks
+1.3
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 240 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 2.0 · 2030
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.9%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%12.7%
IP110
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.0peak
2030
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 2 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 23 | 23 | 110 | 480 | 96 | 20 | 10 | 15.0% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 4.60 | 4.11 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 2 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.57 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 110 | 463 | 92 | 33 | 14 | 19.9% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +1.2 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 117 | 490 | 98 | 33 | 14 | 20.0% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 4.23 | 4.08 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 23 | 23 | 128 | 542 | 113 | 38 | 16 | 20.8% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.23 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 142 | 600 | 128 | 42 | 18 | 21.3% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.17 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 27 | 27 | 149 | 629 | 135 | 44 | 18 | 21.5% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.15 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 28 | 28 | 152 | 641 | 138 | 45 | 19 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.16 | +2.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 28 | 28 | 152 | 640 | 138 | 45 | 19 | 21.5% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 4.18 | 4.19 | +1.9 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 27 | 27 | 148 | 626 | 134 | 45 | 19 | 21.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.23 | +1.8 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 144 | 607 | 129 | 44 | 19 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 4.26 | 4.30 | +1.6 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 25 | 25 | 139 | 586 | 123 | 43 | 18 | 21.0% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.37 | +1.5 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 133 | 562 | 116 | 42 | 18 | 20.7% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 4.41 | 4.46 | +1.3 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 23 | 23 | 127 | 537 | 109 | 41 | 18 | 20.4% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 4.50 | 4.55 | +1.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 121 | 510 | 102 | 40 | 17 | 20.0% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.66 | +0.9 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 94 | 39 | 17 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 4.71 | 4.79 | +0.7 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 106 | 450 | 86 | 38 | 16 | 19.2% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 4.84 | 4.92 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 27 | 27 | 121 | 527 | 80 | 23 | 14 | 15.2% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 4.48 | 3.89 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 45 | 200 | 873 | 133 | 38 | 23 | 15.2% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 4.48 | 3.89 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Randall (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 19.9% | 7.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.18 | 21.2% | 14.2% | 419 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Reid Johnston R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.74 | 19.4% | 6.1% | 2.7% | .297 | 5.02 | 19.5% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.28 | 3.74 | 204 | 98 |
| Colin Peluse R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.20 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 3.5% | .299 | 5.61 | 15.0% | 6.8% | 236 | +1.41 | 3.05 | 395 | 94 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .300 | 4.37 | 21.0% | 11.3% | 266 | -0.01 | 3.50 | 368 | 94 |
| Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.66 | 20.4% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .315 | 3.76 | 18.2% | 12.0% | 120 | +0.10 | 3.66 | 229 | 94 |
| Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .287 | 3.98 | 20.4% | 12.5% | 362 | -0.36 | 3.84 | 494 | 94 |
| Alex FaGalde R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.79 | 19.1% | 6.7% | 2.7% | .266 | 4.98 | 16.1% | 6.4% | 162 | +1.19 | 3.79 | 279 | 93 |
| James Hicks R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .338 | 4.35 | 17.5% | 10.4% | 61 | +0.12 | 3.67 | 167 | 92 |
| Grant Rogers R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.08 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .297 | 3.89 | 14.2% | 7.6% | 150 | -0.19 | 3.89 | 262 | 92 |
| Mitchell Kilkenny R 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.64 | 17.6% | 5.5% | 2.4% | .290 | 5.79 | 13.4% | 5.1% | 124 | +2.15 | 3.18 | 237 | 92 |
| Will Ethridge R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.11 | 16.8% | 5.8% | 3.1% | .274 | 5.50 | 14.6% | 2.8% | 129 | +1.39 | 3.57 | 227 | 92 |
| Jason Bahr R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.79 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .297 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 155 | +0.28 | 3.32 | 315 | 91 |
| Jack Cushing R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.68 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.69 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 332 | +1.01 | 3.68 | 523 | 91 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 91 |
| Gabe Mosser R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.77 | 17.7% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .346 | 4.58 | 14.9% | 6.9% | 104 | +0.81 | 3.35 | 541 | 91 |
| Brian Edgington R 2028 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .321 | 5.23 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.26 | 3.97 | 171 | 90 |
| Connor Lunn R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.67 | 18.9% | 4.7% | 2.9% | .310 | 4.66 | 16.5% | 10.0% | 212 | +0.99 | 3.67 | 332 | 90 |
| Colton Eastman R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.33 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .304 | 4.97 | 17.0% | 2.8% | 155 | +0.64 | 4.19 | 349 | 90 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.55 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.9% | .280 | 3.89 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 142 | +0.34 | 3.55 | 252 | 89 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.8% | 6.4% | 3.9% | .300 | 4.06 | 17.8% | 8.0% | 252 | -0.56 | 3.95 | 373 | 89 |
| Zack Lee R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.52 | 19.2% | 7.0% | 2.1% | .293 | 5.37 | 11.6% | 2.7% | 93 | +1.85 | 3.52 | 175 | 89 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.0 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.9 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.8 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.6 | $16M | +$12M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.5 | $15M | +$10M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.3 | $14M | +$7M |
| Totals | $18M | $97M | +$80M | ||