Josh Randall

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 240 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#594ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ADET	2	2	4	4.50	2.10	10.0%	0.0%	—	K 10.0% · BB 0.0% · FIP 2.26
2025	22	MIX2 levels	23	23	110	4.60	3.08	20.0%	4.2%	—	K 15.0% · BB 4.9% · FIP 4.12
2026	23	MIX2 levels	26	23	128	4.84	4.47	22.1%	8.2%	—	K 17.6% · BB 9.1% · FIP 5.39
2027PROJ	24	MLBWSH	1	1	2	4.95	4.95	16.8%	7.1%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBWSH	7	7	41	4.83	4.80	17.9%	7.0%	0.3
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBWSH	10	10	59	4.75	4.73	18.5%	7.0%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$1.0M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 3.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 89%

CompsMason Erla (age 24) · Paul Rigdon (age 24) · Derek Gordon (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%16.8%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%9.7%

Proj IP86

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 86 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	2	2	4	20	2	0	0	100%	2.0	10.0%	0.0%	10.0%	0.0%	4.50	2.26	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	2	2	4	20	2	0	0	100%	2.0	10.0%	0.0%	10.0%	0.0%	4.50	2.26	—
2024	21	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	2	2	4	20	2	0	0	100%	2.0	10.0%	0.0%	10.0%	0.0%	4.50	2.10	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	110	480	96	20	10	100%	4.8	15.0%	4.9%	10.1%	3.0%	4.60	4.12	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	110	480	96	20	10	100%	4.8	15.0%	4.9%	10.1%	3.0%	4.60	4.12	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	110	480	96	20	10	100%	4.8	20.0%	4.2%	15.8%	2.1%	4.60	3.08	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	128	560	124	46	22	88%	4.9	17.6%	9.1%	8.5%	4.8%	4.84	5.39	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	128	560	124	46	22	88%	4.9	17.6%	9.1%	8.5%	4.8%	4.84	5.39	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	128	560	124	46	22	88%	4.9	22.1%	8.2%	13.9%	3.9%	4.84	4.47	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	WSH	1	1	2	8	1	1	0	100%	2.0	16.8%	7.1%	9.7%	3.6%	4.95	4.95	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	94	397	71	28	14	100%	5.9	17.9%	7.0%	10.9%	3.5%	4.83	4.80	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	88	370	69	26	13	100%	5.8	18.5%	7.0%	11.5%	3.5%	4.75	4.73	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	84	353	66	25	12	100%	6.0	18.7%	7.1%	11.6%	3.5%	4.73	4.74	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	79	334	62	24	12	100%	6.1	18.6%	7.3%	11.4%	3.6%	4.78	4.81	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	73	309	57	23	12	100%	6.1	18.4%	7.5%	10.9%	3.8%	4.88	4.94	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	66	280	51	22	11	100%	6.0	18.1%	7.8%	10.3%	4.0%	5.02	5.12	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	41	173	31	12	6	100%	5.9	17.9%	7.0%	10.9%	3.5%	4.83	4.80	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	59	249	46	17	9	100%	5.9	18.5%	7.0%	11.5%	3.5%	4.75	4.73	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	65	274	51	20	10	100%	5.9	18.7%	7.1%	11.6%	3.5%	4.73	4.74	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	67	283	53	21	10	100%	6.1	18.6%	7.3%	11.4%	3.6%	4.78	4.81	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	64	270	50	20	10	100%	5.8	18.4%	7.5%	10.9%	3.8%	4.88	4.94	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	60	253	46	20	10	100%	6.0	18.1%	7.8%	10.3%	4.0%	5.02	5.12	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	59	355	1501	276	109	55	100%	6.0	18.4%	7.3%	11.1%	3.7%	4.83	4.48	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	155	61	31	100%	6.0	18.4%	7.3%	11.1%	3.7%	4.83	4.48	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		51	48	242	1060	173	75	41	94%	4.7	16.3%	7.0%	9.3%	3.9%	4.72	4.76	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	40	200	876	143	62	34	94%	4.7	16.3%	7.0%	9.3%	3.9%	4.72	4.76	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 85 IPFIP 4.67 → 5.58 (+0.91)K% 21.8% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.83%	—	×0.810	17.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.43%	—	×1.100	10.38%
HR / BF /BF	4.04%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.85%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.67 → 5.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 43 IPFIP 3.95 → 5.01 (+1.06)K% 22.8% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.75%	—	×0.770	17.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.82%	—	×1.150	6.69%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.63%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.95 → 5.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 75 IPFIP 3.37 → 4.58 (+1.21)K% 19.6% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.57%	—	×0.740	14.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.59%	—	×1.180	5.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.45%	÷0.864	×1.300	3.68%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).

Result: FIP 3.37 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 34 IPFIP 2.47 → 3.14 (+0.68)K% 20.9% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.92%	—	×0.770	16.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.27%	—	×1.150	3.76%
HR / BF /BF	1.31%	÷0.967	×1.250	1.69%

Result: FIP 2.47 → 3.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 4 IPFIP 2.26 → 2.48 (+0.22)K% 10.0% → 7.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	10.00%	—	×0.740	7.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.180	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.099	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.26 → 2.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Randall (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	4.76	18.4%	11.3%	265	-0.19	—	—	—
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.89	14.8%	5.2%	124	+0.78	3.11	206	89
Paul Rigdon R 2000 · 5.29 FIP	24	SP	5.29	16.5%	7.9%	4.7%	.263	5.34	13.6%	2.5%	79	+0.05	5.29	167	89
Derek Gordon R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP	4.90	15.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.322	4.62	19.9%	10.6%	76	-0.28	4.62	146	88
Blake Beers R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.94	17.7%	8.7%	323	+0.33	4.32	416	88
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	88
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	87
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	86
Taylor Buchholz R 2006 · 4.94 FIP	24	SP	4.94	16.1%	6.3%	4.4%	.245	3.30	17.8%	13.0%	160	-1.64	3.12	299	86
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	86
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.26	16.4%	8.7%	340	+0.28	3.95	448	86
Zach Stewart R 2011 · 4.50 FIP	24	SP	4.50	15.2%	5.4%	3.6%	.351	7.14	11.3%	8.9%	36	+2.64	4.27	194	86
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	85
Tommy Wilson R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.261	3.08	22.8%	15.9%	15	-1.27	3.08	129	85
Justin Vernia R 2019 · 5.27 FIP	23	SP-	5.27	17.0%	8.4%	4.6%	.296	4.46	14.7%	10.2%	79	-0.81	4.37	193	85
Derek Casey R 2019 · 5.30 FIP	23	SP	5.30	13.6%	8.5%	4.2%	.311	2.96	22.3%	13.2%	58	-2.34	2.96	180	85
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	85
John Ely R 2010 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP	4.20	17.7%	8.8%	2.7%	.306	4.38	23.2%	12.5%	13	+0.18	4.20	113	84
Trent Baker R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	24	SP	3.88	16.3%	6.0%	2.5%	.279	4.27	19.7%	10.4%	253	+0.39	3.86	496	84
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	84
Edison Frias R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP-	4.90	18.1%	7.5%	4.3%	.318	4.19	13.7%	3.5%	166	-0.71	4.14	279	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	81	18.1%	7.2%	1.41	4.84
Paul Reuschel ('75-'79, 1 WAR*)	2.0	79	16.8%*	7.6%*	1.29*	4.76*
Nelson Cruz ('03)	1.7	58	18.2%	7.2%	1.52	5.04
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Ron Taylor ('62-'72, 3 WAR*)	4.0	80	17.8%*	6.8%*	1.26*	4.74*
Brad Lincoln ('14)	1.1	56	17.4%	7.9%	1.30	4.74
Scott Bailes ('86-'98, -3 WAR*)	3.4	76	15.4%*	8.2%*	1.35*	5.02*