Josh Randall — OGILVIE

Josh Randall P Harrisburg Senators

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 240 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 2.1 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION128 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%15.3%

BB%4.4%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 134 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$18M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4045

CMD5060

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+1.0	$6M	+$3M
2031	Arb-2	$6M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$7M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$20M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	2	2	4	20	2	0	0	100%	2.0	10.0%	0.0%	10.0%	0.0%	4.50	2.26	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	2	2	4	20	2	0	0	100%	2.0	10.0%	0.0%	10.0%	0.0%	4.50	2.26	—
2024	21	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	2	2	4	20	2	0	0	100%	2.0	10.0%	0.0%	10.0%	0.0%	4.50	2.10	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	110	480	96	20	10	100%	4.8	15.0%	4.9%	10.1%	3.0%	4.60	4.12	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	110	480	96	20	10	100%	4.8	15.0%	4.9%	10.1%	3.0%	4.60	4.12	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	110	480	96	20	10	100%	4.8	20.0%	4.2%	15.8%	2.1%	4.60	3.08	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	26	23	128	560	124	46	22	88%	4.9	17.6%	9.1%	8.5%	4.8%	4.84	5.39	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	26	23	128	560	124	46	22	88%	4.9	17.6%	9.1%	8.5%	4.8%	4.84	5.39	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	WSH	9	9	43	189	43	11	7	100%	4.8	22.8%	5.8%	16.9%	3.7%	4.40	3.95	—
2026	23	AA RAW	WSH	17	14	85	371	81	35	15	82%	5.0	21.8%	9.4%	12.4%	4.0%	5.06	4.67	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	WSH	1	1	6	25	4	1	1	100%	6.0	15.3%	4.4%	10.9%	3.0%	4.37	4.37	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	134	585	128	47	23	—	—	21.8%	8.0%	13.8%	3.9%	4.82	5.34	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	WSH	23	23	129	544	93	24	16	100%	5.6	17.0%	4.5%	12.5%	2.9%	4.28	4.22	+1.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	130	551	99	25	16	100%	5.9	18.0%	4.6%	13.4%	2.9%	4.20	4.15	+1.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	130	551	102	26	16	100%	5.9	18.5%	4.7%	13.8%	2.9%	4.15	4.12	+1.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	128	542	101	26	16	100%	6.1	18.6%	4.9%	13.7%	3.0%	4.16	4.16	+1.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	124	526	97	26	16	100%	5.9	18.4%	5.0%	13.5%	3.1%	4.21	4.25	+1.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	119	502	91	26	16	100%	5.9	18.2%	5.2%	13.0%	3.2%	4.31	4.38	+0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	112	472	84	26	16	100%	5.9	17.9%	5.5%	12.3%	3.4%	4.46	4.56	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	104	440	77	26	16	100%	6.1	17.5%	5.9%	11.6%	3.7%	4.64	4.76	+0.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	96	407	69	26	16	100%	6.0	17.0%	6.3%	10.7%	3.9%	4.85	4.99	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	56	236	40	11	7	100%	5.6	17.0%	4.5%	12.5%	2.9%	4.28	4.22	+0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	87	367	66	17	11	100%	5.8	18.0%	4.6%	13.4%	2.9%	4.20	4.15	+0.8
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	17	17	104	439	81	21	13	100%	6.1	18.5%	4.7%	13.8%	2.9%	4.15	4.12	+1.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	110	464	86	23	14	100%	6.1	18.6%	4.9%	13.7%	3.0%	4.16	4.16	+1.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	111	469	86	23	14	100%	6.2	18.4%	5.0%	13.5%	3.1%	4.21	4.25	+0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	108	456	83	24	15	100%	6.0	18.2%	5.2%	13.0%	3.2%	4.31	4.38	+0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	17	17	103	435	78	24	15	100%	6.1	17.9%	5.5%	12.3%	3.4%	4.46	4.56	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	97	410	72	24	15	100%	6.1	17.5%	5.9%	11.6%	3.7%	4.64	4.76	+0.2
2035	32	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	90	380	65	24	15	100%	6.0	17.0%	6.3%	10.7%	3.9%	4.85	4.99	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		146	146	867	3660	658	190	119	100%	5.9	18.0%	5.2%	12.8%	3.2%	4.36	4.02	+9.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	152	44	27	100%	6.0	18.0%	5.2%	12.8%	3.2%	4.36	4.02	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		51	48	242	1060	173	75	41	94%	4.7	16.3%	7.0%	9.3%	3.9%	4.72	4.76	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	40	200	876	143	62	34	94%	4.7	16.3%	7.0%	9.3%	3.9%	4.72	4.76	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Randall (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	15.3%	4.4%	3.0%	—	4.16	17.8%	13.3%	390	-0.21	—	—	—
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.90	14.7%	5.0%	124	+0.79	3.11	206	88
Will Ethridge R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	16.8%	5.8%	3.1%	.274	5.54	14.6%	2.8%	129	+1.40	3.57	227	87
Erik Swanson R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	23	SP	3.98	15.5%	3.6%	3.2%	.340	4.17	23.7%	16.9%	197	+0.19	1.60	606	86
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	85
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	17.6%	5.5%	2.5%	.290	5.79	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.12	3.18	237	84
Max Beatty R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP	4.31	11.8%	3.7%	3.2%	.264	3.88	13.2%	6.8%	46	-0.43	3.88	117	83
Gabe Mosser R 2019 · 3.75 FIP	23	SP	3.75	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.57	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.82	3.75	651	83
Chris Clarke R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SP	4.59	15.8%	6.7%	3.6%	.340	3.85	16.2%	9.8%	241	-0.74	3.57	291	83
Raynel Espinal R 2016 · 3.39 FIP	24	SP	3.39	14.6%	3.5%	2.0%	.330	3.01	25.6%	18.2%	216	-0.38	2.48	507	83
Tanner Gordon R 2021 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	18.5%	5.5%	3.8%	.290	4.68	18.3%	11.7%	349	+0.33	3.83	709	82
Connor Lunn R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	18.9%	4.7%	2.9%	.310	4.64	16.5%	10.0%	212	+0.97	3.67	332	82
Kevin Folman R 2018 · 4.54 FIP	23	SP	4.54	13.2%	5.9%	3.3%	.312	5.37	16.0%	6.4%	122	+0.83	4.54	161	82
Austin Peterson R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.0%	6.3%	3.1%	.335	3.52	19.5%	13.8%	405	-0.79	2.69	522	82
Brady Rodgers R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SP	3.92	15.5%	5.2%	2.7%	.326	2.99	18.1%	13.6%	189	-0.93	1.98	354	82
Andrés Machado R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	16.7%	6.7%	2.7%	.350	4.70	17.6%	8.8%	266	+0.68	3.63	530	82
Luc Rennie R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	24	SP	3.45	18.7%	5.5%	2.2%	.352	5.56	14.5%	5.7%	209	+2.11	3.45	265	81
Jack Cushing R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	.326	4.66	18.1%	11.3%	332	+0.97	3.69	523	81
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	81
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	81
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.8	115	17.8%	5.1%	1.23	4.34
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73