Josh Randall
P
Wilmington Blue Rocks
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 240 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION88 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
K%15.3%
BB%4.7%
K-BB%10.6%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 155 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 2 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 2.26 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 2 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 2.10 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 110 | 480 | 96 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 4.8 | 15.0% | 4.9% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 4.60 | 4.39 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 110 | 480 | 96 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 4.8 | 20.0% | 4.2% | 15.8% | 2.1% | 4.60 | 3.08 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 17 | 17 | 88 | 376 | 86 | 27 | 16 | 100% | 5.2 | 18.1% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 5.2% | 4.60 | 5.45 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 67 | 283 | 43 | 13 | 9 | 100% | 5.2 | 15.3% | 4.7% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | WSH | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 15.3% | 4.7% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 155 | 659 | 129 | 40 | 25 | — | — | 19.6% | 6.1% | 13.5% | 3.7% | 4.55 | 5.02 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 15.3% | 4.7% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.09 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 79 | 332 | 57 | 16 | 10 | 100% | 5.6 | 17.1% | 4.9% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.32 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 80 | 337 | 61 | 17 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.2% | 5.1% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.25 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 80 | 337 | 63 | 18 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.7% | 5.3% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.22 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 78 | 331 | 62 | 18 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.8% | 5.4% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 4.26 | 4.26 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 76 | 321 | 60 | 18 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.7% | 5.6% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.31 | 4.35 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 25 | 7 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.1% | 4.9% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 41 | 11 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.2% | 5.1% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 50 | 14 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 18.7% | 5.3% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.22 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 53 | 15 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.8% | 5.4% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 4.26 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 54 | 16 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.7% | 5.6% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.31 | 4.35 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 49 | 287 | 1214 | 223 | 64 | 37 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.4% | 5.3% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 3.90 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 155 | 45 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.4% | 5.3% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 42 | 42 | 202 | 876 | 142 | 54 | 37 | 100% | 4.8 | 16.2% | 6.1% | 10.1% | 4.2% | 4.60 | 4.80 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 42 | 200 | 869 | 141 | 53 | 36 | 100% | 4.8 | 16.2% | 6.1% | 10.1% | 4.2% | 4.60 | 4.80 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Randall (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 15.3% | 4.7% | 3.1% | — | 4.26 | 18.0% | 12.9% | 238 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Mason Erla R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.95 | 14.9% | 6.0% | 2.5% | .309 | 4.99 | 14.9% | 4.6% | 124 | +1.04 | 3.12 | 206 | 90 |
| Will Ethridge R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.88 | 16.8% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .274 | 5.22 | 14.6% | 2.8% | 129 | +1.34 | 3.57 | 227 | 89 |
| Blake Burkhalter R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 17.3% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .317 | 3.73 | 16.7% | 5.6% | 103 | +0.15 | 3.58 | 173 | 88 |
| Erik Swanson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.08 | 15.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | .340 | 4.15 | 23.7% | 16.9% | 197 | +0.07 | 1.63 | 606 | 86 |
| Max Beatty R 2028 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.32 | 11.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% | .264 | 3.69 | 13.2% | 6.8% | 46 | -0.63 | 3.69 | 117 | 85 |
| Connor Noland R 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.78 | 14.8% | 5.7% | 2.2% | .290 | 4.26 | 16.6% | 8.0% | 315 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 423 | 84 |
| Mitchell Kilkenny R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.46 | 17.6% | 5.5% | 2.1% | .290 | 5.81 | 13.4% | 5.1% | 124 | +2.35 | 3.18 | 237 | 84 |
| Austin Peterson R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.28 | 15.0% | 6.3% | 3.0% | .335 | 3.45 | 20.0% | 13.7% | 362 | -0.83 | 2.67 | 479 | 84 |
| Grant Rogers R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.07 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .297 | 4.47 | 13.4% | 6.7% | 230 | +0.40 | 4.07 | 342 | 83 |
| Chris Clarke R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.76 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .340 | 3.89 | 16.6% | 9.7% | 241 | -0.87 | 3.67 | 291 | 83 |
| Brady Rodgers R 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.84 | 15.5% | 5.2% | 2.5% | .326 | 2.99 | 18.1% | 13.6% | 189 | -0.85 | 1.98 | 354 | 83 |
| Marcel Rentería R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.16 | 16.4% | 8.4% | 2.5% | .318 | 4.03 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 81 | -0.13 | 3.97 | 194 | 83 |
| Andrés Machado R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 2.7% | .350 | 4.87 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 266 | +0.85 | 3.64 | 530 | 83 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.58 | 16.8% | 6.4% | 3.8% | .300 | 4.65 | 17.2% | 7.2% | 281 | +0.07 | 4.04 | 402 | 83 |
| Derek Gordon R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.90 | 15.1% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .322 | 4.72 | 19.9% | 10.6% | 76 | -0.18 | 4.72 | 146 | 82 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.97 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .250 | 6.06 | 13.6% | 4.7% | 74 | +2.09 | 3.97 | 181 | 82 |
| Gabe Mosser R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.79 | 17.7% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .346 | 4.63 | 14.9% | 6.9% | 104 | +0.84 | 3.79 | 606 | 82 |
| Kevin Folman R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.54 | 13.2% | 5.9% | 3.3% | .312 | 5.71 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 122 | +1.17 | 4.54 | 161 | 82 |
| Jake Brooks R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.09 | 13.6% | 5.9% | 2.5% | .251 | 3.86 | 15.9% | 10.4% | 195 | -0.23 | 3.24 | 309 | 82 |
| Logan Shore R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.97 | 15.0% | 5.9% | 2.5% | .331 | 4.12 | 14.5% | 4.1% | 170 | +0.15 | 2.92 | 386 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 78 | 17.8% | 5.2% | 1.18 | 4.33 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Erasmo Ramírez ('24) | 8 | 78 | 18.1% | 5.8% | 1.40 | 4.33 |
| Dan Otero ('19) | 5 | 53 | 16.7% | 3.0% | 1.12 | 3.93 |
| Yusmeiro Petit ('21) | 7 | 72 | 20.4% | 4.6% | 1.27 | 3.28 |
| Tommy Hunter ('23) | 7 | 41 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 1.00 | 3.72 |
| Brandon Kintzler ('21) | 6 | 50 | 16.2% | 6.3% | 0.91 | 3.57 |