Randal Diaz — OGILVIE

Randal DiazSS Frederick Keys

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 205 lbs A+ HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION431 act + 269 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .281 / .299

PA269

HR4

SB13

K%29

BB%7

BABIP280

ISO95

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.3M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	INTL	Senadores de San Juan	—	71	63	14	4	0	0	4	15	3	1	0	222	300	286	586	63	286	21	6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	INTL	Senadores de San Juan	—	71	63	14	4	0	0	4	15	3	1	0	222	300	286	586	63	286	21	6	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	2 teams	—	513	460	79	9	2	1	35	120	7	29	8	172	241	207	448	35	226	23	7	208	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	2 teams	—	513	443	94	12	3	1	52	89	7	29	8	212	305	260	564	47	259	17	10	262	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A+	BAL	—	431	382	77	15	2	9	31	133	15	28	7	202	287	322	609	120	280	31	7	268	63	-18	+3	+0	+5	+12	0.2
YTD	23	A+	BAL	—	431	366	95	20	2	12	47	99	15	28	7	260	367	423	790	164	322	23	11	355	130	+14	+3	+0	+5	+12	3.5
ROS	23	A+	BAL	0%	269	241	49	9	1	4	19	77	7	13	3	203	281	299	580	95	274	29	7	262	59	-13	+1	+0	+3	+8	-0.1
ROS	23	MLB	BAL	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						278	0	0	246	47	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	A+	BAL	—	432	383	77	15	2	9	31	133	15	28	7	201	287	321	608	120	279	31	7	268	63	-18	+3	+0	+5	+12	0.2
TOT	23	A+	BAL	—	700	623	126	24	3	13	50	210	22	41	10	202	285	313	598	111	280	30	7	266	61	-31	+4	+0	+8	+20	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	BAL	30%	581	522	108	19	3	10	42	162	12	19	5	207	281	312	594	105	275	28	7	268	63	-24	+2	+0	+6	+16	0.0
2028	25	MLB	BAL	44%	609	546	115	20	3	12	46	167	12	19	5	211	286	324	611	114	276	27	8	275	69	-21	+2	+0	+7	+17	0.4
2029	26	MLB	BAL	51%	627	562	119	21	3	13	48	170	12	18	5	212	288	329	617	117	277	27	8	279	72	-20	+2	+0	+7	+18	0.6
2030	27	MLB	BAL	52%	638	572	122	22	3	13	49	173	12	18	4	213	289	330	620	117	278	27	8	280	73	-20	+2	+0	+7	+18	0.7
2031	28	MLB	BAL	53%	637	570	121	22	3	13	50	173	12	17	4	212	290	330	619	118	277	27	8	279	72	-20	+2	-1	+7	+18	0.6
2032	29	MLB	BAL	53%	629	562	118	21	3	12	50	173	12	15	4	210	288	322	611	112	277	28	8	277	71	-21	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.4
2033	30	MLB	BAL	56%	619	553	115	21	2	12	49	171	12	14	3	208	287	318	605	110	276	28	8	275	69	-22	+2	-2	+7	+18	0.2
2027	24	MLB	BAL	30%	176	157	33	6	1	3	13	49	4	6	1	210	287	318	606	108	279	28	7	257	55	-9	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
2028	25	MLB	BAL	44%	269	242	51	9	1	5	20	74	5	8	2	211	285	318	603	107	280	28	7	265	61	-12	+1	+0	+3	+8	-0.1
2029	26	MLB	BAL	51%	318	285	61	11	1	7	24	86	6	9	2	214	289	333	622	119	281	27	8	269	64	-13	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.0
2030	27	MLB	BAL	52%	335	300	64	12	1	7	26	91	6	9	2	213	289	330	619	117	282	27	8	270	65	-13	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.1
2031	28	MLB	BAL	53%	340	303	65	12	1	7	27	93	7	9	2	215	294	330	624	116	281	27	8	269	64	-14	+1	-0	+4	+10	0.0
2032	29	MLB	BAL	53%	330	295	62	11	1	7	26	91	6	8	2	210	287	325	613	115	281	28	8	267	63	-14	+1	-1	+4	+9	-0.1
2033	30	MLB	BAL	56%	350	312	66	12	1	7	28	97	7	8	2	212	291	324	615	112	280	28	8	265	61	-15	+1	-1	+4	+10	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2119	1895	402	73	7	43	164	581	41	57	13	212	289	326	615	114	280	27	8	267	62	-91	+6	-2	+23	+60	-0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	123	22	2	13	50	178	13	17	4	212	289	324	612	112	279	27	8	267	62	-28	+2	-1	+7	+18	-0.1
Career	—			—	5193	4651	960	168	23	90	392	1401	101	163	41	206	282	310	593	104	273	27	8	265	61	-229	+16	-4	+56	+147	-1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	120	21	3	11	49	175	13	20	5	206	283	309	592	103	273	27	8	265	61	-29	+2	-1	+7	+18	-0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	INTL	Senadores de San Juan	—	71	63	14	4	0	0	4	15	3	1	0	222	300	286	586	63	286	21	6	270	65	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2025	22	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	428	371	84	11	3	1	46	66	6	29	7	226	322	280	602	54	269	15	11	280	73	-13	+3	—	—	+12	0.2
2025	22	INTL	Senadores de San Juan	—	85	72	10	1	0	0	6	23	1	0	1	139	215	153	368	14	196	27	7	169	-13	-11	-0	—	—	+2	-0.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Alcides Escobarlast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,178 PA	12	6,178	45	178	258	295	345	+66	+92	19.3	18.2
	/162	664	5	19	258	295	345	+7.1	+9.9	2.1	pk7: 17
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	6	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	4	44	247	316	328	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	2,119	41	58	211	285	324	+23	+9	1.5	1.5
	/162	664	13	18	211	285	324	+7.1	+2.8	0.5	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Randal Diaz (OGILVIE)	23	40	20	60	40	202/285/313	111	280	13	41	30%	7%	61	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jacob Young 2022 · A	23	43→53	38→40	57→60	43	204/254/284	80	263	5	21	24%	6%	46	-2.0	243/304/321	78	311	4	31	21%	7%	76	+0.1	252/314/329	77	319	3	36	20%	6%	80	+0.3
✕Kurtis Muller 2012 · A	23	46	36→40	55	45	216/289/284	69	272	3	19	20%	6%	62	-0.9	231/293/337	106	279	8	20	19%	6%	77	+0.1	251/308/383	132	286	10	28	16%	5%	91	+0.5
✕Alfredo Rodriguez 2017 · A	23	42→52	36→30	55→45	42	200/265/269	69	274	3	14	27%	6%	47	-1.9	218/259/272	54	282	3	10	22%	4%	43	-2.2	230/268/284	54	294	2	9	22%	4%	48	-1.2
✕Nick Sinay 2017 · A	23	45	36→30	56→60	49	205/317/266	61	285	3	23	26%	9%	72	-0.2	205/319/264	59	293	3	20	29%	7%	72	-0.2	181/319/211	31	274	2	26	29%	7%	58	-0.6
✕Blake Rambusch 2023 · A	23	47	37→30	52→65	42	219/287/293	74	318	4	14	30%	7%	63	-0.9	230/317/295	65	313	3	29	25%	9%	76	+0.1	252/330/304	52	316	1	49	19%	9%	79	+0.1
✕Erlin Cerda 2017 · A	23	44	36→40	51→55	42	205/266/276	70	280	2	11	26%	6%	49	-1.8	196/240/268	72	301	3	8	34%	5%	35	-2.8	163/196/205	43	251	0	8	34%	3%	-4	-1.3
✕DJ Jenkins 2017 · A	23	45	34→30	50→55	43	214/263/264	51	276	2	17	23%	6%	43	-2.2	217/268/262	45	307	2	14	28%	6%	45	-2.1	216/267/246	31	307	1	15	28%	6%	37	-1.2
✕Armand Gaerlan 2006 · A	23	46	38→30	54→55	44	218/278/299	81	295	5	16	27%	7%	59	-1.1	204/257/316	112	265	10	11	26%	6%	56	-1.3	125/167/273	148	136	14	3	22%	4%	5	-0.8
●Levi Michael 2014 · A	23	39→49	37→45	55	49	187/266/263	76	252	4	13	26%	9%	46	-2.0	219/285/303	84	294	4	16	25%	7%	64	-0.8	226/293/341	115	319	10	11	30%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Gabriel Mejia 2018 · A	23	50	35→30	52→70	44	233/280/289	57	296	2	22	22%	6%	57	-1.2	214/266/275	61	298	3	13	27%	6%	48	-1.9	217/272/262	45	282	0	10	21%	6%	46	-0.4
✕Jordan Serena 2016 · A	23	39→45	35→30	55→50	38	184/253/245	61	284	2	18	34%	6%	37	-2.7	195/250/257	62	306	3	10	35%	5%	37	-2.6	188/242/244	56	297	3	9	35%	5%	28	-1.9
✕Carlos Willoughby 2012 · A	23	45→42	36→40	57→60	48	210/280/284	74	264	2	21	20%	7%	57	-1.2	210/280/285	75	276	3	14	23%	8%	57	-1.2	206/287/267	61	274	0	13	22%	10%	53	-0.6
✕Juan Montes 2018 · A	23	41	36→30	52→55	44	193/280/256	63	253	4	19	24%	6%	52	-1.6	212/285/291	79	294	6	12	28%	6%	63	-0.9	214/282/293	79	299	8	5	29%	4%	59	-0.2
✕Andrew Sohn 2016 · A	23	45	38→30	52→55	39	215/265/291	76	281	6	18	25%	4%	52	-1.6	202/273/281	79	280	7	15	28%	7%	54	-1.4	165/258/219	53	235	5	18	29%	9%	30	-1.4
✕Cutter Dykstra 2012 · A	23	43→53	37→40	51→55	39	205/257/273	69	295	5	16	31%	6%	44	-2.1	226/290/308	82	312	6	16	27%	7%	67	-0.5	232/301/316	84	315	6	16	26%	8%	72	-0.2
✕Jose Curpa 2022 · A	22	40	36→30	58→55	46	184/272/253	69	286	2	24	33%	10%	47	-1.9	206/292/291	85	310	6	17	32%	9%	65	-0.7	198/299/263	65	296	5	23	31%	10%	59	-0.3
✕Darin Mastroianni 2009 · A	23	42→52	38→40	60	41	201/253/277	76	278	5	22	29%	6%	43	-2.2	244/309/320	76	313	3	35	21%	8%	78	+0.2	252/319/328	76	317	2	38	19%	8%	81	+0.4
✕Dionis Hinojosa 2014 · A	23	42	36→30	50→60	41	200/254/264	64	288	3	17	30%	6%	40	-2.4	208/261/286	78	284	5	10	27%	6%	50	-1.8	198/248/261	62	248	4	8	21%	4%	37	-0.4
✕Mike Martin 2016 · A	23	40	35→30	52→55	42	183/275/240	57	297	3	13	36%	8%	46	-2.0	217/272/277	60	282	3	17	23%	6%	51	-1.7	231/276/282	51	286	2	23	19%	5%	51	-0.6
✕Joe Munoz 2008 · A	22	43	36→30	51→55	44	202/275/270	69	257	2	16	21%	6%	53	-1.5	204/255/269	65	274	3	9	25%	4%	42	-2.3	197/231/226	29	265	0	9	25%	2%	17	-1.1