Randal Diaz

SS Frederick Keys
Age 24 R/R 6'0" / 205 lbs A+ HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
Overview
A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037
ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202421INTLSenadores de …71.222/.300/.2860169—
202522A/INTL2 orgs513.212/.305/.26012928—.182/.255/.221
202623A+BAL372.260/.360/.436122664—.197/.271/.331
2027PROJMLE24MLBBAL1.203/.271/.3040061-0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB25MLBBAL67.207/.275/.3141264-0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB26MLBBAL121.209/.278/.3202367-0.1
Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
ISO62
wRC+61
wOBA59
Speed59
K%54
Chase%49
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%
CompsHunter Jones (age 24) · Connor Kokx (age 24) · Tony Bullard (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†61
AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .271 / .304
PA1
HR0
K%29
BB%7
BABIP274
ISO98
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -9.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-9BATRUN: +0.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.1 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +4.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+4REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 20
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT40
scouting grade only
POWER20
scouting grade only
EYE40
scouting grade only
SPEED60
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-1M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202421 INTLSenadores de San Juan — 7163 14400 4153 10 222300286586 63286 216 270 69 — — — — — —
202522 AFredericksburg Nationals — 428371 841131 46666 297 226322280602 54269 1511 280 34 — — — — — —
202522 INTLSenadores de San Juan — 8572 10100 6231 01 139215153368 14196 277 169 0 — — — — — —
202623 A+Frederick Keys — 372319 8318112 408610 2610 260360436796 176317 2311 355 64 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202522 A MLEFredericksburg Nationals — 428385 70821 32936 297 182255221476 39230 227 219 34 — — — — — —
202623 A+ MLEFrederick Keys — 372335 6613110 2411310 2610 197271331602 134253 306 263 64 — — — — — —
202421 INTL MLESenadores de San Juan — 7163 14400 4153 10 222300286586 63286 216 — — — — — — — —
202421 INTL RAWSenadores de San Juan — 7163 14400 4153 10 222300286586 63286 216 270 69 — — — — — —
202522 A MLE2 teams — 513457 841031 381117 298 184257225482 42236 227 219 34 — — — — — —
202522 A RAW2 teams — 513443 941231 52897 298 212305260564 47259 1710 262 34 — — — — — —
202623 A+ MLEFrederick Keys — 372335 6613110 2411310 2610 197271331602 134260 306 263 64 — — — — — —
202623 A+ RAWFrederick Keys — 372319 8318112 408610 2610 260360436796 176317 2311 355 64 — — — — — —
202522 A MLE2 teams — 513463 841031 381117 298 181257222479 41230 227 219 34 — — — — — —
202623 A+ MLEFrederick Keys — 372335 6613110 2411310 2610 197271331602 134253 306 263 64 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202522 A MLE2 teams — 513463 841031 381117 298 181257222479 41230 227 219 34 — — — — — —
202623 A+ MLEFrederick Keys — 372335 6613110 2411310 2610 197271331602 134253 306 263 64 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLEBAL 0% 380345 691226 261096 134 200269297566 97270 297 258 61 -18 +1 +0 +4 +8 -0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXBAL 0% 11 0000 000 00 203271304575 101274 00 262 61 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLEBAL 30% 222200 41714 16634 72 203272307580 104272 287 263 64 -9 +1 +0 +2 +5 -0.2
202926 MLB MLEBAL 44% 274248 51915 20774 83 206275313588 108272 287 267 67 -11 +0 +0 +3 +6 -0.2
203027 MLB MLEBAL 49% 300270 561016 22845 83 207276315592 109273 287 269 68 -11 +0 +0 +3 +6 -0.1
203128 MLB MLEBAL 52% 314283 591116 23875 73 207277316592 109273 287 269 68 -12 +0 -1 +3 +7 -0.2
203229 MLB MLEBAL 51% 312282 591116 23874 73 207276314591 108273 287 268 68 -12 +0 -1 +3 +7 -0.3
203330 MLB MLEBAL 51% 309280 571016 22874 63 204273307580 103271 287 264 65 -13 +0 -2 +3 +7 -0.5
202825 MLB CTXBAL 30% 6761 12201 5191 21 207275314590 107276 287 267 64 -3 +0 +0 +1 +1 -0.1
202926 MLB CTXBAL 44% 121109 22402 9342 31 209278320598 111276 287 271 67 -5 +0 +0 +1 +3 -0.1
203027 MLB CTXBAL 49% 147133 28513 11412 41 210280323602 113277 287 273 68 -6 +0 +0 +2 +3 -0.0
203128 MLB CTXBAL 52% 162147 31613 12452 41 210280323603 113277 287 273 68 -6 +0 -0 +2 +4 -0.1
203229 MLB CTXBAL 51% 161146 31613 12452 31 210279322601 112277 287 272 68 -6 +0 -1 +2 +3 -0.2
203330 MLB CTXBAL 51% 159145 30513 11452 31 207276314590 107275 287 268 65 -7 +0 -1 +2 +3 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 817741 15428415 6022911 196 208277317594 109277 287 271 56 -32 +1 -2 +9 +18 -0.7
/ 162G— A+C — 650590 12222312 481829 155 207277315592 108275 287 271 56 -26 +1 -2 +7 +14 -0.5
Career— MLE — 28792592 522911147 20577949 10537 201273299572 98266 277 251 56 -78 +2 -4 +21 +42 -1.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650585 11821211 4617611 248 202273301573 99266 277 251 56 -26 +1 -1 +7 +14 -0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Frederick Keys · 372 PAwOBA .349 → .263 (−86)K% 23.1% → 30.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.12%÷1.000×1.310——30.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.75%÷1.000×0.600—×0.9986.44%
HBP% /PA2.69%—×0.770—×0.9982.07%
Singles /BIP22.32%÷1.000×0.870×0.950×0.99818.41%
Doubles /BIP7.73%÷1.000×0.780×0.950×0.9985.71%
Triples /BIP0.43%÷1.000×0.850×0.950×0.9980.35%
Home runs /BIP5.15%÷1.000×0.880—×0.9984.52%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .349 → .263; ISO .176 → .143; BABIP .317 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFredericksburg Nationals · 428 PAwOBA .276 → .219 (−58)K% 15.4% → 21.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.42%÷0.968×1.360——21.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.75%÷0.987×0.690——7.51%
HBP% /PA1.40%—×0.780——1.09%
Singles /BIP22.62%÷1.046×0.920×0.985—19.60%
Doubles /BIP3.61%÷1.050×0.830×0.985—2.81%
Triples /BIP0.98%÷1.106×0.910×0.985—0.80%
Home runs /BIP0.33%÷1.040×0.800——0.25%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 109, 2B 110, 3B 121, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .276 → .219; ISO .054 → .041; BABIP .269 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .