Randal Diaz — OGILVIE

Randal DiazSS Frederick Keys

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 205 lbs A+ HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION372 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP274

ISO76

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	21	INTL	Senadores de San Juan	—	71	63	14	4	0	0	4	15	3	1	0	222	300	286	586	63	286	21	6	270	69	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2025	22	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	428	371	84	11	3	1	46	66	6	29	7	226	322	280	602	54	269	15	11	280	76	-12	+3	—	—	+9	-0.0
2025	22	INTL	Senadores de San Juan	—	85	72	10	1	0	0	6	23	1	0	1	139	215	153	368	14	196	27	7	169	0	-10	-0	—	—	+2	-0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	428	387	70	8	2	1	30	97	6	29	7	181	251	220	470	39	233	23	7	216	32	-34	+3	—	—	+9	-2.3
2024	21	INTL MLE	Senadores de San Juan	—	71	63	14	4	0	0	4	15	3	1	0	222	300	286	586	63	286	21	6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	INTL RAW	Senadores de San Juan	—	71	63	14	4	0	0	4	15	3	1	0	222	300	286	586	63	286	21	6	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	513	460	84	10	2	1	35	116	7	29	8	183	251	220	471	37	238	23	7	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	513	443	94	12	3	1	52	89	7	29	8	212	305	260	564	47	259	17	10	262	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	513	466	84	10	2	1	35	116	7	29	8	180	251	217	468	36	233	23	7	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	513	466	84	10	2	1	35	116	7	29	8	180	251	217	468	36	233	23	7	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	BAL	—	372	333	66	13	1	9	26	115	10	26	10	198	276	324	601	126	269	31	7	268	68	-14	+1	+0	+4	+8	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ RAW	BAL	—	372	319	83	18	1	12	40	86	10	26	10	260	360	436	796	176	317	23	11	355	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	A+ MLE	BAL	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		270	33	11	259	62	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	23	A+ MLE	BAL	—	381	341	67	13	1	9	27	118	10	26	10	196	275	320	595	123	267	31	7	268	67	-15	+1	+0	+4	+8	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BAL	30%	462	417	87	16	2	9	34	130	8	16	6	209	281	321	602	113	274	28	7	270	69	-17	+1	+0	+5	+10	-0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	44%	499	451	94	17	2	10	37	138	8	16	5	208	280	322	602	113	275	28	7	276	73	-16	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	51%	526	472	100	18	2	11	40	144	9	16	5	212	286	328	614	117	276	27	8	279	75	-15	+1	+0	+6	+11	0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	BAL	52%	533	478	103	19	2	12	41	145	9	15	5	215	290	339	629	123	276	27	8	281	76	-15	+1	+0	+6	+12	0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	BAL	53%	533	477	101	18	2	12	42	146	9	14	5	212	288	333	621	122	276	27	8	280	76	-15	+1	-1	+6	+12	0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	BAL	53%	526	471	99	18	2	11	41	145	9	13	4	210	286	327	613	117	275	28	8	278	74	-16	+1	-1	+6	+11	0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	BAL	56%	517	463	98	18	2	11	41	144	8	12	4	212	287	330	618	119	274	28	8	276	73	-17	+1	-2	+6	+11	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	BAL	30%	140	127	26	5	0	3	10	39	2	5	2	205	273	315	588	110	278	28	7	262	69	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	44%	221	198	43	8	1	5	17	61	4	7	2	217	292	343	636	126	279	28	8	268	73	-7	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	51%	267	241	52	10	1	6	20	73	4	8	3	216	287	340	627	124	280	27	7	272	75	-8	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	BAL	52%	279	250	54	10	1	6	22	76	5	8	3	216	292	336	628	120	281	27	8	273	76	-8	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	BAL	53%	284	255	54	10	1	6	22	78	5	7	3	212	287	329	617	118	280	27	8	272	76	-8	+0	-0	+3	+6	0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	BAL	53%	276	248	53	10	1	6	22	76	4	7	2	214	288	335	623	121	280	28	8	271	74	-8	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	BAL	56%	292	262	55	10	1	6	23	81	5	7	2	210	286	324	611	115	279	28	8	268	73	-9	+1	-1	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1759	1581	337	63	6	38	136	484	29	49	17	213	288	333	620	120	280	28	8	270	66	-54	+3	-2	+19	+38	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	124	23	2	14	50	179	11	18	6	212	287	330	617	118	279	28	8	270	66	-20	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4189	3760	781	138	16	77	316	1126	70	132	42	208	281	314	596	107	273	27	8	265	66	-112	+7	-4	+39	+78	0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	120	21	2	12	49	175	11	20	7	206	280	310	590	105	270	27	8	265	66	-20	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#4Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	3.1	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
/162	664	4	44	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5
#5J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#6Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.7	1,761	37	48	212	283	329	+19	+9	1.7	1.7
/162	664	14	18	+7.1	+3.4	0.6	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Randal Diaz (OGILVIE)	23	40	20	60	40	197/269/293	96	270	5	16	29%	7%	62	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jacob Young 2022 · A	23	43→53	38→40	57→60	44	204/256/283	80	261	5	21	23%	6%	53	-2.1	242/303/317	75	307	4	31	21%	6%	78	-0.3	242/306/332	90	291	7	29	18%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Blake Rambusch 2023 · A	23	48	37→30	52→65	43	220/289/294	74	319	4	14	30%	7%	68	-1.0	230/314/295	65	316	3	29	25%	9%	78	-0.3	249/326/297	48	311	1	47	18%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Nick Sinay 2017 · A	23	45	36→30	56→60	49	205/317/266	61	285	3	23	26%	9%	75	-0.5	206/321/265	59	291	3	20	28%	8%	77	-0.3	182/323/214	31	272	2	26	28%	7%	65	-0.6
✕Kurtis Muller 2012 · A	23	46	36→40	55	45	216/288/285	69	272	3	19	20%	6%	66	-1.1	229/291/334	105	276	8	20	19%	6%	78	-0.3	247/304/376	129	283	10	28	16%	5%	89	+0.3
✕Gabriel Mejia 2018 · A	23	48	35→30	52→70	44	226/273/282	56	287	2	22	21%	6%	58	-1.7	210/261/270	60	292	3	13	27%	6%	51	-2.3	209/265/254	44	270	0	10	21%	6%	47	-0.5
✕Tyler Tolbert 2021 · A	23	42→49	35→45	58→65	42	194/270/251	58	300	3	21	34%	8%	52	-2.2	192/263/286	94	294	6	38	34%	8%	57	-1.8	227/289/306	79	310	6	60	27%	6%	68	-0.5
✕Alfredo González 2015 · A	23	42	38→30	52→45	43	203/264/285	81	271	6	9	26%	6%	56	-1.9	233/294/295	62	311	4	6	24%	7%	70	-0.9	228/291/282	54	298	4	5	23%	7%	63	-0.7
✕Armand Gaerlan 2006 · A	23	46	38→30	54→55	44	218/278/299	81	295	5	16	27%	7%	64	-1.3	204/257/316	112	265	10	11	26%	6%	61	-1.5	125/167/273	148	136	14	3	22%	4%	16	-0.8
✕Mike Martin 2016 · A	23	40	35→30	52→55	42	183/275/240	57	297	3	13	36%	8%	52	-2.2	223/279/284	61	291	3	17	23%	6%	61	-1.5	242/289/295	53	301	2	23	19%	5%	65	-0.5
✕Corey Joyce 2022 · AA	23	40	39→40	54→50	39	192/262/271	79	299	7	14	36%	7%	53	-2.1	205/306/320	115	292	11	13	31%	10%	82	-0.0	213/316/315	101	301	9	14	29%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Hunter Jones 2016 · A	24	41→51	39→40	56→55	41	197/260/280	82	277	7	21	30%	6%	54	-2.0	220/275/311	91	288	6	17	25%	6%	66	-1.1	228/284/322	94	293	6	16	23%	6%	70	-0.7
✕Alfredo Rodriguez 2017 · A	23	42→52	36→30	55→45	42	200/265/269	69	274	3	14	27%	6%	53	-2.1	218/258/271	53	281	3	10	22%	4%	50	-2.3	231/270/286	54	292	2	9	21%	4%	55	-1.2
✕David Kandilas 2014 · A	23	45→44	39→45	55	45	215/276/305	90	284	7	19	26%	7%	65	-1.2	211/272/308	97	279	7	16	25%	7%	65	-1.2	197/260/302	106	254	7	17	24%	6%	56	-1.2
✕Erlin Cerda 2017 · A	23	44	36→40	51→55	42	205/266/275	70	280	2	11	26%	6%	55	-2.0	195/240/267	72	302	3	8	34%	5%	42	-2.9	164/198/208	44	258	0	8	35%	4%	9	-1.2
✕Gabriel Maciel 2022 · A	23	44→52	37→30	54→55	45	208/267/278	70	274	4	19	25%	7%	55	-1.9	220/279/301	81	282	5	13	22%	7%	65	-1.2	232/292/307	76	288	2	11	19%	7%	68	-0.4
✕Levi Michael 2014 · A	23	41→51	37→45	55	49	197/274/273	77	262	4	13	25%	9%	58	-1.7	224/291/308	84	296	4	16	24%	7%	72	-0.7	228/294/337	109	315	10	11	29%	5%	77	-0.2
✕Kenny Wilson 2013 · A	23	42→51	37→40	58→60	43	199/273/270	71	283	4	29	29%	7%	57	-1.8	222/279/307	85	307	5	27	27%	6%	67	-1.1	200/268/290	91	305	7	22	34%	7%	57	-0.7
✕Andrew Sohn 2016 · A	23	45	38→30	52→55	40	214/265/290	76	279	6	18	25%	4%	57	-1.8	204/275/283	79	280	7	15	27%	7%	61	-1.5	172/263/224	53	239	5	18	28%	9%	41	-1.4
✕Joel Booker 2017 · A	23	48→50	37→40	59→55	43	226/289/297	71	298	4	26	24%	6%	68	-1.0	227/278/300	73	316	5	19	28%	5%	65	-1.2	224/275/295	71	314	5	19	29%	4%	59	-1.3
✕Kristopher Negrón 2009 · A	23	45→50	40→45	57→55	43	218/277/315	97	276	7	19	23%	6%	68	-1.0	223/282/319	96	288	8	20	24%	6%	71	-0.8	226/289/352	126	323	14	14	32%	7%	78	-0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps