Josh Swales prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Josh Swales P Visalia Rawhide

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 46 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%21.0%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP46

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	0	10	50	9	6	0	0%	2.5	18.0%	12.0%	6.0%	0.0%	4.50	3.10	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	0	10	50	9	6	0	0%	2.5	18.0%	12.0%	6.0%	0.0%	4.50	3.10	—
2022	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	18	13	63	300	48	37	7	72%	3.5	11.8%	14.6%	-2.7%	2.9%	7.14	5.51	—
2022	20	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	18	13	63	300	48	37	7	72%	3.5	16.0%	12.3%	3.7%	2.3%	7.14	4.78	—
2023	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	49	0	66	309	63	36	9	0%	1.3	15.1%	13.7%	1.3%	3.8%	6.99	5.64	—
2023	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	49	0	66	309	63	36	9	0%	1.3	15.1%	13.7%	1.3%	3.8%	6.99	5.64	—
2023	21	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	49	0	66	309	63	36	9	0%	1.3	20.4%	11.7%	8.7%	2.9%	6.99	4.61	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	ARI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.0%	11.6%	9.4%	3.0%	4.83	4.83	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ARI	44	0	47	197	42	21	6	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.7%	10.9%	3.0%	4.71	4.66	-0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	44	0	47	197	43	21	6	0%	1.1	21.9%	10.5%	11.4%	3.0%	4.64	4.61	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	ARI	19	0	20	84	18	9	3	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.7%	10.9%	3.0%	4.71	4.66	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	30	0	31	131	29	14	4	0%	1.0	21.9%	10.5%	11.4%	3.0%	4.64	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	0	51	214	47	23	6	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.6%	11.2%	3.0%	4.67	4.25	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	91	24	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.6%	11.2%	3.0%	4.67	4.25	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		71	13	139	659	91	92	20	18%	2.0	13.8%	14.0%	-0.2%	3.1%	6.88	5.39	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	19	200	950	131	133	29	18%	2.0	13.8%	14.0%	-0.2%	3.1%	6.88	5.39	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Swales (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	21.0%	11.6%	3.0%	—	4.63	21.8%	11.1%	93	-0.20	—	—	—
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	89
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	88
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	86
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	86
James McDonald R 2009 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.3%	10.4%	2.1%	.283	4.16	20.4%	11.3%	414	+0.20	2.99	506	85
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.17	28.8%	15.2%	112	-0.85	3.14	173	85
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	85
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	84
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	84
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	83
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	83
Andrew Bellatti R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	278	83
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	83
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	83
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	83
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	83
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	82
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	82
Ryan Zeferjahn R 2022 · 4.45 FIP	24	SW	4.45	21.0%	12.4%	2.8%	.325	4.36	27.3%	13.8%	163	-0.09	3.05	349	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	21.5%	10.9%	1.17	4.73
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16