Jean Walters
2B Amarillo Sod Poodles| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AA/A+ARI | 328 | .263/.310/.341 | 2 | 5 | 47 | — | .227/.262/.291 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA/A+ARI | 289 | .229/.306/.344 | 4 | 2 | 42 | — | .195/.253/.276 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA/AAARI | 300 | .260/.337/.411 | 7 | 4 | 78 | — | .245/.302/.377 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBARI | 4 | .222/.274/.331 | 0 | 0 | 64 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 26 | MLBARI | 73 | .224/.277/.338 | 1 | 1 | 67 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs | — | 46 | 38 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 342 | 457 | 342 | 799 | 464 | 22 | 17 | 377 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | — | 273 | 248 | 49 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 58 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 198 | 252 | 242 | 494 | 44 | 257 | 21 | 6 | 223 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | ACL D-backs Red | — | 36 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 242 | 286 | 273 | 558 | 30 | 364 | 31 | 6 | 250 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 29 | 28 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 207 | 250 | 457 | 71 | 250 | 28 | 3 | 206 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL D-backs Red | — | 147 | 132 | 45 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 341 | 404 | 492 | 897 | 152 | 391 | 14 | 9 | 395 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 130 | 112 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 214 | 261 | 286 | 546 | 71 | 250 | 17 | 5 | 228 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 198 | 181 | 53 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 36 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 293 | 340 | 376 | 716 | 83 | 354 | 18 | 7 | 316 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 220 | 194 | 46 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 50 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 237 | 305 | 376 | 681 | 139 | 300 | 23 | 8 | 296 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 69 | 59 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 309 | 237 | 546 | 34 | 261 | 19 | 13 | 259 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 109 | 96 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 321 | 354 | 675 | 104 | 311 | 19 | 9 | 298 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 191 | 162 | 43 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 43 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 265 | 346 | 444 | 791 | 179 | 322 | 23 | 9 | 335 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 46 | 41 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 244 | 326 | 244 | 570 | 375 | 33 | 11 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 273 | 253 | 45 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 79 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 178 | 218 | 217 | 435 | 40 | 248 | 29 | 4 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Red | — | 36 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 176 | 200 | 206 | 406 | 29 | 291 | 44 | 3 | 164 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 29 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 172 | 214 | 387 | 71 | 230 | 38 | 3 | 157 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Red | — | 147 | 138 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 254 | 295 | 362 | 657 | 109 | 304 | 20 | 5 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 130 | 114 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 228 | 261 | 298 | 559 | 70 | 251 | 20 | 3 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 198 | 185 | 42 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 50 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 227 | 263 | 286 | 549 | 59 | 296 | 25 | 5 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 220 | 199 | 40 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 63 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 201 | 254 | 296 | 550 | 95 | 266 | 29 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 69 | 62 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 177 | 250 | 210 | 460 | 32 | 244 | 26 | 9 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 109 | 99 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 283 | 323 | 606 | 91 | 297 | 23 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 191 | 167 | 42 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 53 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 251 | 313 | 407 | 720 | 156 | 304 | 28 | 7 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 46 | 41 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 244 | 326 | 244 | 570 | 385 | 33 | 11 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL D-backs | — | 46 | 38 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 342 | 457 | 342 | 799 | 464 | 22 | 17 | 377 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 309 | 287 | 51 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 95 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 178 | 216 | 216 | 432 | 38 | 264 | 31 | 4 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 309 | 281 | 57 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 69 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 203 | 256 | 246 | 501 | 43 | 268 | 22 | 6 | 227 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 176 | 166 | 39 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 235 | 274 | 337 | 612 | 102 | 298 | 23 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 176 | 160 | 50 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 312 | 371 | 450 | 821 | 138 | 369 | 16 | 8 | 364 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 328 | 299 | 68 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 77 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 227 | 262 | 291 | 553 | 64 | 292 | 23 | 4 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 328 | 293 | 77 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 58 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 263 | 310 | 341 | 651 | 78 | 314 | 18 | 6 | 281 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 289 | 261 | 51 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 80 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 195 | 253 | 276 | 529 | 80 | 274 | 28 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 289 | 253 | 58 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 63 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 229 | 306 | 344 | 650 | 115 | 290 | 22 | 9 | 288 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 300 | 266 | 65 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 78 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 244 | 302 | 376 | 678 | 132 | 321 | 26 | 7 | 284 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 300 | 258 | 67 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 64 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 260 | 337 | 411 | 748 | 151 | 317 | 21 | 9 | 322 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 46 | 41 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 244 | 326 | 244 | 570 | 375 | 33 | 11 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 309 | 292 | 51 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 95 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 175 | 216 | 212 | 428 | 38 | 253 | 31 | 4 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 176 | 165 | 39 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 236 | 274 | 339 | 614 | 103 | 292 | 23 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 328 | 311 | 68 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 77 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 219 | 262 | 280 | 542 | 61 | 278 | 23 | 4 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 289 | 267 | 51 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 80 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 191 | 253 | 270 | 522 | 79 | 261 | 28 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 300 | 275 | 65 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 78 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 236 | 302 | 364 | 666 | 127 | 301 | 26 | 7 | 284 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 328 | 311 | 68 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 77 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 219 | 262 | 280 | 542 | 61 | 278 | 23 | 4 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 289 | 267 | 51 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 80 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 191 | 253 | 270 | 522 | 79 | 261 | 28 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 300 | 275 | 65 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 78 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 236 | 302 | 364 | 666 | 127 | 301 | 26 | 7 | 284 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | ARI | 2% | 350 | 324 | 70 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 215 | 267 | 318 | 586 | 103 | 276 | 25 | 6 | 263 | 64 | -15 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | ARI | 2% | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 274 | 331 | 605 | 110 | 287 | 25 | 0 | 271 | 64 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | ARI | 31% | 234 | 216 | 48 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 59 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 217 | 271 | 326 | 596 | 109 | 277 | 25 | 6 | 267 | 67 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | ARI | 31% | 73 | 68 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 277 | 338 | 615 | 115 | 287 | 25 | 7 | 275 | 67 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 73 | 68 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 221 | 274 | 338 | 612 | 118 | 286 | 25 | 7 | 275 | 52 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 605 | 134 | 27 | 9 | 9 | 45 | 160 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 221 | 275 | 340 | 616 | 119 | 287 | 25 | 7 | 275 | 52 | -25 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1877 | 1716 | 371 | 59 | 16 | 19 | 104 | 494 | 9 | 26 | 16 | 216 | 265 | 302 | 567 | 86 | 290 | 26 | 6 | 245 | 52 | -17 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +9 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 594 | 129 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 36 | 171 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 217 | 265 | 306 | 571 | 89 | 290 | 26 | 6 | 245 | 52 | -26 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 191 PAwOBA .330 → .297 (−33)K% 22.5% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.51% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.42% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 23.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 3.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 2.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 4.03% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .330 → .297; ISO .179 → .159; BABIP .322 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAReno Aces · 109 PAwOBA .291 → .262 (−29)K% 19.3% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.27% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.032 | ×1.033 | 21.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.032 | ×1.033 | 8.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.032 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.96% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .291 → .262; ISO .104 → .089; BABIP .311 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 220 PAwOBA .289 → .236 (−52)K% 22.7% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.73% | ÷0.972 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.18% | ÷0.994 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.45% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.14% | ÷1.041 | ×0.920 | ×1.042 | ×1.012 | 18.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.64% | ÷1.119 | ×0.840 | ×1.042 | ×1.012 | 6.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.39% | ÷0.985 | ×0.940 | ×1.042 | ×1.012 | 1.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷1.333 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.69% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 167, 1B 108, 2B 124, 3B 97, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.
Result: wOBA .289 → .236; ISO .139 → .103; BABIP .300 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Hillsboro Hops · 69 PAwOBA .254 → .212 (−42)K% 18.8% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.84% | ÷1.002 | ×1.350 | — | — | 25.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.04% | ÷1.044 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 8.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.74% | ÷1.012 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 20.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.908 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 4.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.968 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 102, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 100, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .254 → .212; ISO .034 → .032; BABIP .261 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Hillsboro Hops · 198 PAwOBA .313 → .243 (−69)K% 18.2% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.18% | ÷0.964 | ×1.350 | — | — | 25.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.57% | ÷1.086 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 4.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.66% | ÷1.049 | ×0.910 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 25.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.14% | ÷1.066 | ×0.830 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 3.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.07% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 1.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.69% | ÷0.875 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 0.65% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 110, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 93, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .313 → .243; ISO .083 → .062; BABIP .354 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 130 PAwOBA .227 → .229 (+2)K% 16.9% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.92% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.62% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 3.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.77% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.11% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×1.045 | ×1.027 | 21.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.966 | ×0.840 | ×1.045 | ×1.027 | 3.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.11% | ÷0.987 | ×0.940 | ×1.045 | ×1.027 | 1.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.11% | ÷1.229 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.74% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 95, 2B 93, 3B 97, K 104, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.
Result: wOBA .227 → .229; ISO .071 → .067; BABIP .250 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL D-backs Red · 147 PAwOBA .385 → .284 (−101)K% 14.3% → 20.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.16% | ÷1.023 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 4.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.68% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.93% | ÷1.033 | ×0.820 | ×1.040 | ×0.975 | 22.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.01% | ÷0.987 | ×0.720 | ×1.040 | ×0.975 | 6.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.80% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×1.040 | ×0.975 | 1.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.80% | ÷0.918 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 1.49% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 107, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 101, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .385 → .284; ISO .152 → .111; BABIP .391 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Hillsboro Hops · 29 PAwOBA .201 → .157 (−44)K% 27.6% → 37.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.59% | ÷0.987 | ×1.350 | — | — | 37.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.45% | ÷1.038 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 2.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷0.980 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.012 | 14.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.947 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 8.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.952 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 97, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .201 → .157; ISO .071 → .055; BABIP .250 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).