Keith Jones II — OGILVIE

Keith Jones IIOF Frisco RoughRiders

Age 24 L/L 6'1" / 220 lbs AA HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION414 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP288

ISO116

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

DEFENSE40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	22	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	23	23	4	0	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	174	174	174	348		286	39	0	157	-7	-3	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2025	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	201	176	43	9	3	3	23	51	1	8	2	244	335	381	716	136	325	25	11	322	104	+1	+1	—	—	+4	0.6
2025	23	A+	Hub City Spartanburgers	—	294	237	64	13	0	10	51	79	4	15	5	270	408	451	859	181	362	27	17	385	147	+16	+1	—	—	+6	2.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	22	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	23	23	3	0	0	0	0	13	0	0	0	130	130	130	261		276	57	0	111	-39	-4	+0	—	—	+0	-0.3
2025	23	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	201	184	38	8	3	2	15	64	1	8	2	207	270	315	585	109	296	32	7	257	60	-10	+1	—	—	+4	-0.4
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	—	294	256	57	12	0	7	32	103	4	15	5	223	318	352	670	129	333	35	11	294	85	-5	+1	—	—	+6	0.2
2024	22	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	23	23	3	0	0	0	0	13	0	0	0	130	130	130	261		300	57	0	111	-39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	—	23	23	4	0	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	174	174	174	348		286	39	0	157	-39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	495	441	95	20	3	9	46	167	5	23	7	215	297	336	632	120	322	34	9	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	495	413	107	22	3	13	74	130	5	23	7	259	378	421	799	162	346	26	15	359	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	23	23	3	0	0	0	0	13	0	0	0	130	130	130	261		276	57	0	111	-39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	495	441	95	20	3	9	46	167	5	23	7	215	297	336	632	120	318	34	9	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	23	23	3	0	0	0	0	13	0	0	0	130	130	130	261		276	57	0	111	-39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	495	441	95	20	3	9	46	167	5	23	7	215	297	336	632	120	318	34	9	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	TEX	—	414	364	73	16	2	8	39	135	4	16	5	201	285	321	606	121	289	33	9	265	65	-17	+1	+0	-2	+9	-1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA RAW	TEX	—	414	347	79	18	2	10	56	111	4	16	5	228	342	378	719	150	300	27	14	322	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	24	AA MLE	TEX	2%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		286	33	11	273	71	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	24	AA MLE	TEX	—	423	372	74	16	2	8	40	138	4	16	5	199	284	317	601	118	287	33	9	265	66	-17	+1	-0	-3	+9	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TEX	31%	370	330	69	14	2	9	34	114	3	9	3	209	289	345	634	136	286	31	9	285	79	-9	+1	-1	-2	+8	-0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	45%	407	362	78	16	2	11	38	123	4	8	3	215	297	362	659	146	287	30	9	293	84	-8	+0	-1	-2	+9	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	TEX	49%	420	374	80	16	2	11	39	126	4	8	2	214	295	356	651	142	287	30	9	295	86	-7	+1	-1	-3	+9	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	TEX	52%	425	378	80	16	2	11	40	127	4	7	2	212	294	352	646	140	286	30	9	294	85	-7	+1	-2	-3	+9	-0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	TEX	52%	420	373	79	16	2	11	40	126	4	6	2	212	295	354	649	142	285	30	10	292	84	-8	+0	-3	-3	+9	-0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	TEX	52%	414	368	78	16	2	11	39	126	4	6	2	212	294	356	650	144	284	30	9	290	82	-9	+0	-3	-2	+9	-0.5
2027	25	MLB CTX	TEX	31%	115	102	22	4	1	3	11	36	1	3	1	216	298	363	661	147	288	31	10	283	79	-3	+0	-0	-1	+2	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	45%	181	160	35	7	1	5	17	55	2	4	1	219	302	369	670	150	289	30	9	292	84	-3	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	TEX	49%	207	184	40	8	1	6	19	62	2	4	1	217	298	370	667	152	289	30	9	293	86	-4	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	TEX	52%	219	194	42	8	1	6	21	65	2	4	1	216	300	361	660	144	289	30	10	293	85	-4	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	TEX	52%	217	192	41	8	1	6	21	65	2	3	1	214	298	359	657	146	288	30	10	291	84	-4	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	TEX	52%	213	189	41	8	1	6	20	65	2	3	1	217	299	365	664	148	286	31	9	288	82	-5	+0	-2	-1	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1152	1021	221	43	6	32	109	348	11	21	6	216	299	364	663	148	292	30	9	291	81	-22	+2	-6	-7	+25	-0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	124	24	3	18	62	196	6	12	3	215	298	361	659	146	290	30	10	291	81	-13	+1	-3	-4	+14	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	2983	2657	563	114	15	73	277	925	28	67	21	212	293	349	642	137	293	31	9	288	81	-49	+3	-12	-15	+53	-1.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	123	25	3	16	60	202	6	15	5	212	293	349	642	136	294	31	9	288	81	-13	+1	-3	-4	+14	-0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.7	1,158	31	20	214	292	356	-7	-12	0.4	0.4
/162	664	18	11	-4.0	-6.9	0.2	pk7: 0
#6Hunter Dozierlast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,294 PA	3.5	2,294	73	19	238	305	421	-23	-45	0.0	0.0
/162	664	21	5	-6.5	-13.2	0.0	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Keith Jones II (OGILVIE)	24	30→40	50→55	40	50	199/281/316	117	286	6	10	32%	9%	71	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Drew Robinson 2016 · AAA	24	37→42	48→55	48→50	45	191/268/335	144	270	15	12	34%	9%	70	-0.8	207/281/371	164	300	18	12	35%	9%	83	+0.1	208/288/362	155	321	16	12	38%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Nick Maton 2021 · AA	24	43→42	41→50	45	44	209/271/304	95	284	8	9	28%	7%	63	-1.3	210/292/333	123	284	11	7	28%	9%	78	-0.3	208/300/350	141	261	16	4	25%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Tommy Giles 2008 · AA	24	42→41	48→55	43→40	38	216/259/359	143	284	15	9	30%	5%	72	-0.7	221/279/386	165	288	20	5	29%	7%	86	+0.3	213/276/381	168	271	21	3	29%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Mike Papi 2017 · AA	24	39→47	44→45	44→45	48	193/275/312	119	272	11	5	31%	10%	68	-1.0	215/291/324	109	288	10	5	27%	9%	76	-0.4	216/293/312	97	283	9	4	25%	9%	73	-0.3
✕Roman Pena 2011 · A	24	38→48	42→50	43→45	41	192/252/295	103	273	9	9	32%	7%	55	-2.0	229/290/352	123	312	10	9	28%	8%	81	-0.1	229/299/375	147	311	14	7	29%	9%	88	+0.3
✕Anthony Seigler 2023 · A	24	41→39	42→45	46→55	56	196/304/308	112	272	9	11	28%	13%	78	-0.3	197/295/308	111	251	10	20	24%	12%	75	-0.5	219/309/345	126	268	10	25	21%	11%	85	+0.2
✕Nicky Delmonico 2016 · AA	24	43→47	45→50	45	42	213/268/343	130	288	11	6	29%	7%	72	-0.7	231/293/378	147	291	15	5	25%	7%	88	+0.5	230/299/381	151	284	16	4	24%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Andrew Navigato 2022 · AA	24	41→40	44→55	46→50	44	203/280/318	115	282	11	13	30%	8%	71	-0.8	217/276/370	153	271	17	14	26%	6%	81	-0.1	214/273/383	169	262	19	17	26%	6%	81	-0.1
✕Brock Lundquist 2021 · AA	25	42→44	43→50	45	41	209/270/322	113	287	11	7	30%	6%	68	-1.0	208/276/322	114	349	12	8	41%	7%	70	-0.9	155/239/248	92	293	15	0	48%	8%	41	-0.7
✕Reid Fronk 2010 · A	24	42→48	43→45	44→50	46	206/292/318	112	279	10	10	28%	8%	76	-0.4	203/288/294	91	286	5	8	28%	9%	69	-0.9	196/287/282	85	279	3	7	28%	9%	64	-0.9
✕Gage Green 2017 · A	24	42	40→45	46→50	40	206/268/295	88	284	8	10	29%	6%	60	-1.6	204/262/292	88	281	7	8	28%	6%	57	-1.8	172/221/235	63	228	0	0	23%	4%	30	-0.7
✕Estevan Florial 2022 · MLB	24	38→48	47→50	47→60	41	193/262/330	137	290	15	15	37%	8%	67	-1.1	213/280/361	148	320	16	29	36%	8%	80	-0.1	207/277/357	150	310	16	35	36%	8%	77	-0.3
✕Taylor Trammell 2022 · MLB	24	40→46	48→55	47→55	45	206/283/347	141	282	17	12	32%	8%	79	-0.2	215/299/385	170	291	20	18	31%	10%	94	+0.9	203/297/373	170	273	21	23	32%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Gabe Matthews 2022 · AAA	24	41→42	43→50	50→40	42	199/279/313	114	301	11	7	35%	8%	70	-0.9	197/288/330	133	299	15	4	36%	9%	78	-0.3	184/284/315	132	277	16	2	36%	10%	71	-0.6
✕Jason Vosler 2018 · AA	24	40→44	46→55	41→40	43	206/271/330	125	256	13	3	25%	6%	70	-0.8	208/269/364	156	282	19	3	32%	7%	78	-0.3	213/279/377	164	265	21	3	28%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Conner Capel 2021 · AAA	24	43→45	43→45	47→55	41	213/262/320	106	283	10	11	28%	6%	63	-1.3	217/281/341	124	273	13	15	24%	8%	76	-0.4	213/285/332	119	269	12	19	24%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Chris Lubanski 2009 · AAA	24	41→50	47→55	46→45	41	211/262/354	143	283	14	6	30%	6%	72	-0.7	212/264/355	143	291	15	10	31%	7%	72	-0.7	211/268/362	151	279	16	10	30%	7%	74	-0.3
✕John Whittleman 2011 · AA	24	38→43	43→50	40→45	50	192/272/304	112	256	10	3	28%	10%	65	-1.2	191/274/343	152	264	17	3	32%	10%	74	-0.5	175/265/340	165	235	20	1	34%	11%	70	-0.6
✕Kyle Kubitza 2014 · A	24	43→53	44→45	43→50	45	205/286/329	124	315	10	9	35%	10%	76	-0.4	217/288/338	121	325	8	11	33%	8%	78	-0.3	210/280/326	115	310	7	13	32%	8%	71	-0.7
✕Kevin Rivers 2013 · A	24	41→44	45→50	45	43	204/276/330	125	290	12	6	32%	8%	72	-0.7	212/274/339	127	294	11	6	30%	8%	73	-0.6	209/270/338	129	284	11	4	29%	8%	69	-0.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps