Keith Jones II — OGILVIE

Keith Jones IIOF Frisco RoughRiders

Age 24 L/L 6'1" / 220 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION279 act + 186 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .288 / .352

PA186

HR5

SB6

K%33

BB%9

BABIP290

ISO145

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

DEFENSE40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	22	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	23	23	3	0	0	0	0	12	0	0	0	130	130	130	261		273	52	0	117	-52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	23	23	4	0	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	174	174	174	348		286	39	0	157	-21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	2 teams	—	495	443	96	21	3	9	44	171	5	23	7	217	295	339	633	122	328	35	9	278	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	2 teams	—	495	413	107	22	3	13	74	130	5	23	7	259	378	421	799	162	346	26	15	359	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	AA	TEX	—	279	244	49	9	2	9	26	95	3	12	2	201	286	365	650	164	278	34	9	281	73	-8	+2	+0	-2	+8	-0.1
YTD	24	AA	TEX	—	279	232	53	10	2	10	38	74	3	12	2	228	344	418	762	190	283	27	14	336	115	+5	+2	+0	-2	+8	1.3
ROS	24	AA	TEX	2%	186	165	34	7	1	5	17	61	2	6	1	206	288	352	640	145	282	33	9	279	71	-6	+1	-1	-1	+5	-0.2
ROS	24	MLB	TEX	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						283	25	0	273	67	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	24	AA	TEX	—	283	248	49	9	2	9	26	96	3	12	2	198	282	359	640	161	272	34	9	281	73	-9	+2	-0	-2	+8	-0.1
TOT	24	AA	TEX	—	465	409	83	16	3	14	43	156	5	18	3	203	287	359	646	156	283	34	9	280	72	-14	+2	-1	-3	+13	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	TEX	31%	370	330	68	13	2	10	34	117	3	9	2	206	286	348	635	142	283	32	9	289	79	-9	+1	-1	-2	+10	-0.1
2028	26	MLB	TEX	45%	407	363	77	15	2	12	37	126	4	8	2	212	292	364	656	152	284	31	9	295	84	-7	+1	-1	-2	+12	0.1
2029	27	MLB	TEX	49%	420	374	79	15	2	13	39	129	4	8	2	211	293	366	659	155	285	31	9	297	85	-7	+1	-1	-3	+12	0.2
2027	25	MLB	TEX	31%	115	102	21	4	1	3	11	36	1	3	1	206	289	353	642	147	285	31	10	284	75	-3	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.1
2028	26	MLB	TEX	45%	181	160	35	7	1	6	17	56	2	4	1	219	302	388	689	169	286	31	9	290	80	-4	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.0
2029	27	MLB	TEX	49%	207	184	39	8	1	6	19	63	2	4	1	212	293	364	657	152	286	30	9	292	81	-4	+0	-1	-1	+6	0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	507	450	95	19	3	15	47	156	5	11	3	211	293	367	659	156	284	31	9	289	80	-12	+1	-2	-3	+14	-0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	121	24	4	19	60	200	6	14	4	210	291	364	655	154	282	31	9	289	80	-15	+1	-2	-4	+18	-0.1
Career	—			—	1901	1698	357	71	10	49	171	616	18	54	14	210	289	350	640	140	296	32	9	286	77	-49	+5	-4	-11	+54	-0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	122	24	3	17	58	211	6	18	5	210	288	349	638	139	295	32	9	286	77	-17	+2	-2	-4	+18	-0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	22	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	23	23	4	0	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	174	174	174	348		286	39	0	157	-21	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	201	176	43	9	3	3	23	51	1	8	2	244	335	381	716	136	325	25	11	322	105	+1	+1	—	—	+6	0.8
2025	23	A+	Hub City Spartanburgers	—	294	237	64	13	0	10	51	79	4	15	5	270	408	451	859	181	362	27	17	385	153	+17	+1	—	—	+8	2.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	509	15	10	213	290	367	-3	-4	0.3	0.3
	/162	664	20	13	213	290	367	-4.0	-5.2	0.4	pk7: 0
#6Hunter Dozierlast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,294 PA	6	2,294	73	19	238	305	421	-23	-45	0.0	0.0
	/162	664	21	5	238	305	421	-6.5	-13.2	0.0	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Keith Jones II (OGILVIE)	24	30→40	50→55	40	50	203/287/359	156	283	14	18	34%	9%	72	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Mike Papi 2017 · AA	24	38→47	44→45	44→45	47	192/275/315	123	272	12	5	32%	10%	64	-0.8	219/294/333	114	295	11	5	28%	9%	76	+0.1	221/296/324	103	291	10	4	26%	9%	73	-0.1
✕Drew Robinson 2016 · AAA	24	36→40	50→55	48→50	45	190/268/346	156	268	17	12	35%	9%	69	-0.4	213/285/388	175	304	20	12	35%	9%	87	+0.8	213/286/393	179	309	20	12	36%	9%	85	+0.5
✕Tommy Giles 2008 · AA	24	42→41	48→55	43→40	38	216/259/360	144	286	16	9	30%	5%	69	-0.4	221/279/391	170	289	21	5	30%	7%	85	+0.7	213/276/387	174	272	22	3	30%	7%	81	+0.3
✕Nick Maton 2021 · AA	24	42	41→50	45	44	206/270/300	94	283	8	9	29%	8%	57	-1.2	211/291/339	128	285	12	7	28%	9%	77	+0.1	215/306/369	154	265	18	4	25%	10%	89	+0.6
✕Orlando Martinez 2022 · AA	24	42→45	46→50	44→50	37	213/256/341	128	292	14	7	32%	5%	62	-0.9	221/268/342	121	290	11	8	27%	6%	67	-0.5	231/297/326	95	291	7	9	21%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Estevan Florial 2022 · MLB	24	39→49	48→55	47→60	41	197/265/341	144	297	16	15	38%	8%	66	-0.6	216/281/379	163	322	18	29	36%	8%	83	+0.6	210/277/376	166	312	19	35	37%	8%	78	+0.2
✕Roman Pena 2011 · A	24	38→48	42→50	43→45	42	192/253/294	103	273	9	9	32%	7%	49	-1.8	233/295/359	126	315	10	9	27%	8%	82	+0.5	233/302/382	149	314	14	7	29%	9%	88	+0.6
●Andrew Navigato 2022 · AA	24	41→38	45→60	46→50	44	204/280/325	122	284	12	13	31%	8%	69	-0.4	220/279/399	179	271	22	14	27%	6%	88	+0.9	220/277/428	209	258	27	17	27%	5%	92	+0.8
✕Nicky Delmonico 2016 · AA	24	44→47	45→55	45	41	216/270/353	137	299	11	6	31%	7%	71	-0.3	235/296/394	159	296	17	5	25%	7%	93	+1.3	232/301/393	160	284	18	4	24%	8%	91	+0.9
✕Brock Lundquist 2021 · AA	25	41→43	44→45	46→45	41	207/269/325	118	287	12	7	31%	7%	64	-0.8	206/275/323	117	358	13	8	42%	8%	66	-0.6	146/233/242	95	291	15	0	51%	8%	30	-0.7
✕Reid Fronk 2010 · A	24	42→48	43→45	44→50	46	206/292/318	112	279	10	10	28%	8%	72	-0.2	205/290/294	89	289	5	8	28%	9%	66	-0.6	200/290/283	83	283	3	7	27%	9%	61	-0.7
✕Conner Capel 2021 · AAA	24	43→46	43→50	47→55	41	215/263/327	112	286	11	11	29%	6%	61	-1.0	217/279/345	128	273	14	15	25%	8%	73	-0.1	213/283/334	121	267	13	19	25%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Will Robertson 2023 · AA	25	38→42	47→55	39→45	38	193/259/328	135	287	15	4	36%	7%	61	-1.0	201/261/363	162	288	19	6	36%	7%	71	-0.3	197/260/362	165	276	20	5	35%	7%	68	-0.4
✕Justin Nelson 2007 · A	24	39→41	51→55	44→45	42	205/273/373	168	284	18	7	34%	8%	79	+0.3	220/291/401	181	316	22	5	35%	8%	93	+1.3	221/298/419	198	312	25	2	36%	9%	99	+1.0
✕Chris Lubanski 2009 · AAA	24	41→49	48→55	46→45	41	211/261/358	147	283	15	6	31%	6%	69	-0.4	209/261/349	140	290	15	10	32%	7%	66	-0.6	206/263/349	143	276	16	10	30%	7%	66	-0.3
✕John Whittleman 2011 · AA	24	38→43	43→50	40→45	48	190/268/304	114	257	11	3	29%	10%	58	-1.2	189/274/346	157	267	18	3	34%	10%	72	-0.2	173/267/346	173	236	21	1	35%	11%	68	-0.3
●Brad Nelson 2008 · AAA	25	43→48	47→50	43→50	45	218/277/349	131	279	15	10	27%	7%	73	-0.1	215/277/357	142	254	17	8	22%	8%	76	+0.0	217/287/376	159	258	20	2	24%	9%	84	+0.5
✕Gage Green 2017 · A	24	43	40→45	46→50	40	208/269/298	90	288	9	10	30%	6%	56	-1.3	205/262/294	89	283	7	8	29%	6%	53	-1.5	175/222/236	62	232	0	0	23%	4%	22	-0.7
✕Eric Wood 2017 · AA	24	41→48	44→55	42→45	43	206/265/320	114	271	11	6	28%	7%	60	-1.0	219/277/381	162	283	19	7	29%	7%	82	+0.5	218/275/390	173	279	21	6	29%	6%	81	+0.2
✕Anthony Seigler 2023 · A	24	40→39	42→50	46→55	56	195/303/310	115	269	9	11	28%	13%	76	+0.0	199/299/319	120	254	11	20	24%	12%	76	+0.0	226/317/363	137	277	12	28	21%	11%	91	+0.6