Nate Nankil
OF Lansing Lugnuts| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+/AOAK | 475 | .303/.407/.458 | 11 | 3 | 91 | — | .248/.335/.364 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA/A+OAK | 535 | .278/.362/.365 | 3 | 10 | 57 | — | .219/.285/.283 |
| 2026 | 23 | AA/A+/AOAK | 405 | .241/.339/.347 | 7 | 5 | 60 | — | .210/.287/.289 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBOAK | 1 | .229/.296/.314 | 0 | 0 | 70 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ22% MLB | 25 | MLBOAK | 55 | .232/.300/.330 | 1 | 1 | 75 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ35% MLB | 26 | MLBOAK | 103 | .234/.303/.340 | 2 | 1 | 78 | -0.1 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 58 | 53 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 189 | 259 | 245 | 504 | 57 | 227 | 16 | 9 | 236 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 116 | 104 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 356 | 417 | 452 | 869 | 96 | 456 | 22 | 7 | 389 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 359 | 298 | 85 | 20 | 1 | 10 | 44 | 64 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 285 | 403 | 460 | 863 | 174 | 332 | 18 | 12 | 386 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 166 | 152 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 32 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 243 | 307 | 303 | 610 | 59 | 308 | 19 | 7 | 281 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 369 | 316 | 93 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 38 | 53 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 294 | 387 | 396 | 783 | 101 | 340 | 14 | 10 | 353 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 102 | 91 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 275 | 347 | 407 | 753 | 132 | 306 | 17 | 8 | 337 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 198 | 167 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 37 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 210 | 327 | 305 | 632 | 96 | 252 | 19 | 13 | 294 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 105 | 91 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 264 | 356 | 363 | 718 | 99 | 311 | 16 | 10 | 327 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 58 | 55 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 145 | 190 | 182 | 371 | 36 | 183 | 22 | 5 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 116 | 106 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 283 | 339 | 358 | 698 | 75 | 383 | 28 | 5 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 359 | 312 | 74 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 86 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 237 | 333 | 365 | 699 | 128 | 293 | 24 | 8 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 166 | 156 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 205 | 253 | 250 | 503 | 45 | 269 | 24 | 4 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 369 | 329 | 74 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 69 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 225 | 299 | 298 | 597 | 73 | 265 | 19 | 7 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 102 | 93 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 258 | 317 | 355 | 672 | 97 | 293 | 21 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 198 | 175 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 47 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 177 | 265 | 246 | 511 | 69 | 226 | 24 | 9 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 105 | 94 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 223 | 298 | 309 | 607 | 85 | 278 | 22 | 7 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 58 | 55 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 145 | 190 | 182 | 371 | 36 | 190 | 22 | 5 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK RAW | ACL Athletics | — | 58 | 53 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 189 | 259 | 245 | 504 | 57 | 227 | 16 | 9 | 236 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 475 | 418 | 103 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 118 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 246 | 333 | 361 | 694 | 115 | 322 | 25 | 8 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 475 | 402 | 122 | 27 | 1 | 11 | 52 | 89 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 303 | 407 | 458 | 864 | 154 | 364 | 19 | 11 | 387 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 535 | 485 | 106 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 109 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 219 | 285 | 282 | 567 | 64 | 272 | 20 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 535 | 468 | 130 | 26 | 3 | 3 | 49 | 85 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 278 | 362 | 365 | 728 | 88 | 330 | 16 | 9 | 331 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 405 | 362 | 77 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 91 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 213 | 289 | 301 | 590 | 88 | 266 | 22 | 8 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 405 | 349 | 84 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 44 | 71 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 241 | 339 | 347 | 686 | 106 | 282 | 18 | 11 | 313 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 58 | 55 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 145 | 190 | 182 | 371 | 36 | 183 | 22 | 5 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 475 | 418 | 103 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 118 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 246 | 333 | 361 | 694 | 115 | 315 | 25 | 8 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 535 | 485 | 106 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 109 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 219 | 285 | 282 | 567 | 64 | 266 | 20 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 405 | 363 | 77 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 91 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 212 | 289 | 300 | 590 | 88 | 256 | 22 | 8 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 475 | 418 | 103 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 118 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 246 | 333 | 361 | 694 | 115 | 315 | 25 | 8 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 535 | 485 | 106 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 109 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 219 | 285 | 282 | 567 | 64 | 266 | 20 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 405 | 363 | 77 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 91 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 212 | 289 | 300 | 590 | 88 | 256 | 22 | 8 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | OAK | 0% | 380 | 344 | 76 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 82 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 222 | 290 | 304 | 594 | 81 | 277 | 22 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -14 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +8 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | OAK | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 296 | 314 | 610 | 86 | 286 | 0 | 0 | 278 | 70 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | OAK | 22% | 250 | 226 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 54 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 226 | 295 | 320 | 614 | 94 | 278 | 22 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +5 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | OAK | 35% | 297 | 269 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 64 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 228 | 297 | 330 | 627 | 102 | 279 | 22 | 7 | 284 | 78 | -8 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | OAK | 40% | 316 | 285 | 64 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 68 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 228 | 297 | 331 | 628 | 103 | 279 | 22 | 7 | 285 | 79 | -8 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | OAK | 22% | 55 | 50 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 232 | 300 | 330 | 630 | 98 | 287 | 22 | 7 | 286 | 75 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | OAK | 35% | 103 | 93 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 234 | 303 | 340 | 642 | 105 | 287 | 21 | 7 | 291 | 78 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | OAK | 40% | 127 | 115 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 234 | 303 | 341 | 644 | 107 | 288 | 22 | 7 | 291 | 79 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 285 | 258 | 59 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 62 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 229 | 297 | 329 | 626 | 101 | 280 | 22 | 7 | 290 | 71 | -7 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 588 | 134 | 25 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 141 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 228 | 296 | 327 | 623 | 99 | 279 | 22 | 7 | 290 | 71 | -17 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2546 | 2290 | 514 | 92 | 8 | 33 | 178 | 562 | 57 | 32 | 11 | 224 | 297 | 315 | 611 | 90 | 281 | 22 | 7 | 273 | 71 | -30 | +1 | +0 | -6 | +23 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 130 | 23 | 2 | 8 | 45 | 143 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 222 | 295 | 309 | 604 | 87 | 279 | 22 | 7 | 273 | 71 | -18 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 198 PAwOBA .287 → .235 (−51)K% 18.7% → 23.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.69% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 23.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 9.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.52% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 1.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.015 | ×0.988 | 18.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.015 | ×0.988 | 3.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.015 | ×0.988 | 0.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.31% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.82% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .287 → .235; ISO .096 → .077; BABIP .252 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AStockton Ports · 105 PAwOBA .322 → .265 (−57)K% 16.2% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.19% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 6.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.86% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 2.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.023 | ×0.980 | 21.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.023 | ×0.980 | 6.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.023 | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 1.06% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .322 → .265; ISO .099 → .079; BABIP .311 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAMidland RockHounds · 102 PAwOBA .331 → .294 (−37)K% 16.7% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.96% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 1.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 25.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 3.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.28% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .331 → .294; ISO .132 → .109; BABIP .306 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 369 PAwOBA .348 → .266 (−82)K% 14.4% → 18.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.36% | ÷0.969 | ×1.270 | — | — | 18.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.03% | ÷1.048 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 6.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.71% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 2.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.24% | ÷1.078 | ×0.920 | ×0.962 | ×0.998 | 21.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.22% | ÷1.199 | ×0.810 | ×0.962 | ×0.998 | 4.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.76% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.962 | ×0.998 | 0.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.14% | ÷0.921 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.99% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 116, 2B 140, 3B 130, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .348 → .266; ISO .101 → .074; BABIP .340 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAMidland RockHounds · 166 PAwOBA .274 → .223 (−52)K% 19.3% → 23.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.28% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.63% | ÷1.078 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.81% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 1.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.17% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×0.973 | ×1.027 | 21.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.83% | ÷1.131 | ×0.840 | ×0.973 | ×1.027 | 4.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.973 | ×1.027 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.043 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 102, 2B 126, 3B 130, K 98, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .274 → .223; ISO .059 → .044; BABIP .308 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AStockton Ports · 359 PAwOBA .379 → .302 (−77)K% 17.8% → 23.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.83% | ÷1.015 | ×1.360 | — | — | 23.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.26% | ÷1.021 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.18% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 3.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.004 | ×0.920 | ×0.994 | — | 21.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.55% | ÷0.979 | ×0.830 | ×0.994 | — | 7.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.994 | — | 0.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.27% | ÷1.164 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.94% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 101, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 103, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .379 → .302; ISO .174 → .131; BABIP .332 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 116 PAwOBA .382 → .303 (−79)K% 21.6% → 28.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.55% | ÷0.974 | ×1.270 | — | — | 28.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.90% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 5.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.59% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 2.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.71% | ÷1.036 | ×0.920 | ×0.953 | ×1.012 | 31.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.86% | ÷0.992 | ×0.810 | ×0.953 | ×1.012 | 6.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.953 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.27% | ÷0.867 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.18% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 107, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .382 → .303; ISO .096 → .076; BABIP .456 → .383. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Athletics · 58 PAwOBA .230 → .165 (−65)K% 15.5% → 21.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.52% | ÷1.018 | ×1.440 | — | — | 21.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.62% | ÷1.030 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 5.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.91% | ÷0.974 | ×0.820 | ×1.029 | ×0.985 | 13.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.82% | ÷1.051 | ×0.720 | ×1.029 | ×0.985 | 4.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.149 | ×0.720 | ×1.029 | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .230 → .165; ISO .057 → .038; BABIP .227 → .183. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).