Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 5 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 8.0% | 16.0% | 0.0% | 5.06 | 2.09 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 5 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 8.0% | 16.0% | 0.0% | 5.06 | 1.98 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 64 | 272 | 62 | 29 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 17.0% | 12.5% | 4.5% | 0.5% | 1.54 | 3.51 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 64 | 272 | 62 | 29 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 0.4% | 1.54 | 2.73 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 0 | 45 | 208 | 51 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.6% | 15.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.77 | 4.44 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 0 | 45 | 208 | 51 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.5% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 1.4% | 3.77 | 3.36 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 17 | 11 | 71 | 322 | 79 | 31 | 5 | 65% | 4.2 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 7.8% | 1.9% | 4.94 | 3.97 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | COL | 4 | 4 | 27 | 114 | 24 | 12 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 21.0% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 4.55 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.0% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 4.55 | 4.55 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | COL | — | — | 98 | 436 | 103 | 43 | 8 | — | — | 23.6% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 1.8% | 4.84 | 4.13 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.0% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 4.55 | 4.17 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 26 | 0 | 27 | 115 | 25 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 12 | 50 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.04 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 186 | 84 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 104 | 11 | 186 | 827 | 148 | 103 | 11 | 11% | 1.8 | 17.8% | 12.5% | 5.4% | 1.3% | 3.48 | 3.88 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 112 | 12 | 200 | 889 | 159 | 111 | 11 | 11% | 1.8 | 17.8% | 12.5% | 5.4% | 1.3% | 3.48 | 3.88 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryson Hammer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 21.0% | 11.0% | 2.6% | — | 4.41 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 27 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 86 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.01 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.55 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.54 | 1.71 | 206 | 82 |
| Jared Tobey L 2025 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.11 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 2.3% | .320 | 5.97 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 73 | +1.86 | 4.11 | 158 | 81 |
| Matt Walker L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.74 | 17.7% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .338 | 4.62 | 12.7% | 2.7% | 41 | -0.12 | 4.27 | 156 | 81 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.54 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 3.2% | .268 | 3.58 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.96 | 1.84 | 238 | 80 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.53 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.5% | .283 | 4.48 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.05 | 4.48 | 110 | 80 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.09 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .260 | 4.51 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.42 | 3.88 | 256 | 80 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.93 | 15.6% | 9.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.15 | 16.3% | 0.5% | 152 | +0.22 | 3.88 | 244 | 80 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 161 | 80 |
| Colton Johnson L 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 79 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.54 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .275 | 4.75 | 19.5% | 3.9% | 45 | +1.21 | 3.54 | 146 | 79 |
| Cy Nielson L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.57 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 2.9% | .361 | 4.55 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 40 | -0.02 | 3.01 | 201 | 79 |
| Fred Schlichtholz L 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.41 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .368 | 4.36 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 80 | -0.05 | 3.76 | 175 | 79 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.66 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 201 | 79 |
| Kelly Secrest L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.46 | 18.6% | 13.7% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.30 | 20.8% | 10.4% | 38 | -1.16 | 3.11 | 151 | 79 |
| Braulio Lara L 2028 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .367 | 5.20 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.10 | 4.10 | 118 | 79 |
| Randy Labaut L 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.06 | 23.2% | 14.0% | 3.9% | .240 | 4.73 | 19.5% | 5.0% | 190 | -0.33 | 1.91 | 302 | 79 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.85 | 16.9% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .291 | 4.08 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 49 | +0.23 | 3.85 | 104 | 78 |
| Kade Bragg L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.40 | 23.3% | 13.0% | 3.0% | .255 | 4.15 | 23.7% | 2.3% | 45 | -0.25 | 4.15 | 112 | 78 |
| Jose Molina L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.73 | 18.6% | 11.8% | 1.3% | .313 | 4.23 | 14.4% | 5.5% | 83 | +0.50 | 3.73 | 144 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 21.3% | 10.6% | 1.03 | 4.50 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |