Chandler Marsh
P
Frederick Keys
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 245 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
K%22.2%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%10.2%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 0.7 | 20.0% | 40.0% | -20.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 6.48 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 0.7 | 20.0% | 40.0% | -20.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 9.10 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 52 | 206 | 63 | 20 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.9% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 0.5% | 2.42 | 3.13 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 52 | 206 | 63 | 20 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.6% | 9.7% | 20.9% | 0.5% | 2.42 | 2.08 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Frederick Keys | 27 | 0 | 33 | 137 | 42 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.6% | 15.1% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 3.86 | 6.53 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BAL | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 49 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.2% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.59 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 85 | 358 | 91 | 44 | 13 | — | — | 25.4% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 4.31 | 5.33 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.2% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.21 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 52 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 53 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 2.7% | 4.35 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 54 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 51 | 0 | 54 | 226 | 53 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 10.2% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 35 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 2.7% | 4.35 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 43 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 46 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 10.2% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 141 | 0 | 148 | 626 | 146 | 64 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 4.34 | 3.92 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 86 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 4.34 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 70 | 1 | 85 | 348 | 79 | 49 | 10 | 1% | 1.2 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 2.95 | 4.52 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 164 | 2 | 200 | 816 | 184 | 115 | 23 | 1% | 1.2 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 2.95 | 4.52 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chandler Marsh (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 22.2% | 12.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.32 | 23.2% | 12.8% | 162 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Max Alba R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 92 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 91 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 91 |
| Abel De Los Santos R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.75 | 21.6% | 12.1% | 1.7% | .273 | 4.00 | 22.0% | 13.3% | 37 | +0.25 | 3.75 | 152 | 91 |
| Alex Palsha R 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 91 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.33 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.36 | 2.87 | 223 | 91 |
| Hunter Dula R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 1.9% | .340 | 4.49 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 91 | +0.64 | 3.85 | 132 | 91 |
| Brett Standlee R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 2.1% | .322 | 4.33 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 75 | +0.33 | 4.00 | 128 | 91 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.4% | .331 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.06 | 3.44 | 213 | 90 |
| Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.59 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 159 | -0.31 | 3.10 | 218 | 90 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.8% | 13.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 4.97 | 21.1% | 5.4% | 115 | +0.89 | 4.08 | 168 | 90 |
| Luke Bell R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 66 | +1.96 | 3.89 | 110 | 90 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 90 |
| Stephen Jones R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.45 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .304 | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.10 | 3.45 | 289 | 89 |
| Kelvin Ramirez R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.50 | 20.4% | 11.5% | 3.0% | .307 | 4.97 | 21.3% | 2.2% | 89 | +0.47 | 3.36 | 219 | 89 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 4.09 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 134 | +0.14 | 3.24 | 172 | 89 |
| Cre Finfrock R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.45 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 3.3% | .278 | 6.27 | 16.7% | -8.5% | 36 | +1.82 | 4.27 | 103 | 89 |
| Donovan Benoit R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 25.3% | 12.4% | 1.8% | .284 | 4.38 | 17.6% | 4.3% | 138 | +0.85 | 3.53 | 183 | 89 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.63 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.31 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 72 | -0.32 | 2.25 | 121 | 89 |
| Bailey Dees R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.23 | 21.3% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .248 | 4.32 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 278 | +0.09 | 3.40 | 330 | 89 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 54 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 1.05 | 4.40 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |