Chandler Marsh — OGILVIE

Chandler Marsh P Frederick Keys

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 245 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%22.2%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%9.7%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	1	1	1	5	1	2	0	100%	0.7	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.48	—
2024	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	1	1	1	5	1	2	0	100%	0.7	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.48	—
2024	21	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	1	1	1	5	1	2	0	100%	0.7	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	9.10	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	52	206	63	20	1	0%	1.2	21.9%	12.7%	9.2%	0.6%	2.42	3.18	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	52	206	63	20	1	0%	1.2	21.9%	12.7%	9.2%	0.6%	2.42	3.18	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	52	206	63	20	1	0%	1.2	30.6%	9.7%	20.9%	0.5%	2.42	2.08	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	40	0	49	201	71	23	10	0%	1.2	27.2%	13.2%	14.0%	6.2%	4.44	5.88	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	40	0	49	201	71	23	10	0%	1.2	27.2%	13.2%	14.0%	6.2%	4.44	5.88	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	BAL	40	0	49	201	71	23	10	0%	1.2	35.3%	11.4%	23.9%	5.0%	4.44	4.30	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BAL	51	0	54	227	52	26	6	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	2.7%	4.53	4.46	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	52	0	54	230	53	24	6	0%	1.0	23.3%	10.5%	12.7%	2.7%	4.41	4.33	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	52	0	54	230	54	24	6	0%	1.0	23.5%	10.4%	13.1%	2.7%	4.35	4.31	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	BAL	51	0	54	226	53	24	6	0%	1.1	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	2.8%	4.35	4.35	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	BAL	22	0	23	97	22	11	3	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	2.7%	4.53	4.46	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	34	0	36	152	35	16	4	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.5%	12.7%	2.7%	4.41	4.33	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	41	0	43	182	43	19	5	0%	1.0	23.5%	10.4%	13.1%	2.7%	4.35	4.31	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	BAL	44	0	46	194	46	20	5	0%	1.0	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	2.8%	4.35	4.35	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		141	0	148	625	146	66	17	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.6%	12.7%	2.7%	4.39	3.97	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	197	89	23	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.6%	12.7%	2.7%	4.39	3.97	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		83	1	101	412	101	55	14	1%	1.2	24.5%	13.3%	11.2%	3.3%	3.38	4.54	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		164	2	200	813	199	108	27	1%	1.2	24.5%	13.3%	11.2%	3.3%	3.38	4.54	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chandler Marsh (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	22.2%	12.5%	2.7%	—	4.37	23.2%	12.5%	162	-0.30	—	—	—
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	93
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	92
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	92
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	91
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	91
Brett Standlee R 2022 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	19.7%	11.1%	2.4%	.322	4.45	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.32	4.13	128	91
Aaron Kurcz R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	22.4%	13.6%	1.9%	.331	4.05	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.07	3.31	213	90
Abel De Los Santos R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	23	SU	3.67	21.6%	12.1%	1.6%	.273	3.81	22.0%	13.3%	37	+0.14	3.67	152	90
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	90
Shane Broyles R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	21.9%	11.5%	2.2%	.338	3.75	25.7%	14.5%	159	-0.16	3.34	218	90
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.3%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	90
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	90
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.53	21.5%	9.8%	142	+0.91	3.62	309	89
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	89
Donovan Benoit R 2022 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	25.3%	12.4%	1.9%	.284	4.43	17.6%	4.3%	138	+0.85	3.58	183	89
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	88
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	88
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	88
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	88
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	88

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	54	23.1%	11.1%	1.05	4.46
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93