Enderso Lira — OGILVIE

Enderso LiraC Greenville Drive

Age 22 R/R 6'1" / 185 lbs A+ H +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 93 proj PA

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .258 / .305

PA93

HR2

K%31

BB%6

ISO106

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL BOS Red	—	162	134	26	5	2	0	20	26	5	1	1	194	321	261	582	67	234	16	12	264	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK	DSL BOS Red	—	162	122	30	7	2	0	32	18	5	1	1	246	421	336	757	90	280	11	20	353	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	71	65	5	0	0	0	4	29	2	0	0	77	155	77	232		139	41	6	120	-50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	71	62	8	1	0	0	7	20	2	0	0	129	239	145	385	16	190	28	10	197	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Salem Red Sox	—	238	228	44	7	0	1	6	74	0	0	2	193	214	237	451	44	274	31	3	198	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Salem Red Sox	—	238	223	53	8	0	1	11	50	0	0	2	238	274	287	560	49	295	21	5	251	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Greenville Drive	—	136	129	14	1	0	1	6	58	0	0	0	109	148	140	288	31	183	43	4	124	-47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Greenville Drive	—	136	127	18	1	0	1	8	40	0	0	0	142	193	173	366	31	195	29	6	172	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	BOS	—	93	86	17	3	0	2	6	29	1	1	0	198	258	302	560	105	280	31	6	256	54	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	BOS	35%	150	138	29	5	1	3	10	45	1	2	1	210	268	326	595	116	283	30	7	269	64	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2028	24	MLB	BOS	46%	270	247	53	10	1	6	19	79	2	4	1	215	276	336	612	121	285	29	7	277	70	-9	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2029	25	MLB	BOS	52%	347	316	70	13	2	9	25	100	3	6	2	222	285	361	646	139	285	29	7	282	74	-10	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.6
2030	26	MLB	BOS	54%	397	363	79	14	2	10	28	113	3	6	2	218	279	350	629	132	285	28	7	285	76	-11	+0	+0	+7	+11	0.8
2031	27	MLB	BOS	54%	422	384	84	15	2	11	31	121	4	7	2	219	284	354	638	135	285	29	7	285	76	-11	+1	+0	+8	+12	0.9
2032	28	MLB	BOS	54%	434	395	86	16	2	11	32	125	4	7	2	218	283	352	635	134	285	29	7	284	75	-12	+1	-1	+8	+12	0.8
2027	23	MLB	BOS	35%	52	49	10	2	0	1	3	16	0	1	0	204	250	306	556	102	289	31	6	267	62	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	24	MLB	BOS	46%	125	114	26	5	1	3	9	36	1	2	1	228	290	368	659	140	291	29	7	275	69	-4	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2029	25	MLB	BOS	52%	179	162	36	7	1	4	13	51	2	3	1	222	288	352	640	130	291	28	7	280	72	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.3
2030	26	MLB	BOS	54%	215	196	44	8	1	6	15	61	2	3	1	224	286	367	654	143	292	28	7	282	74	-6	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.4
2031	27	MLB	BOS	54%	229	208	47	9	1	6	17	65	2	4	1	226	291	365	656	139	291	28	7	282	74	-7	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.4
2032	28	MLB	BOS	54%	236	215	47	9	1	6	17	68	2	4	1	219	282	353	636	135	291	29	7	281	74	-7	+0	-0	+4	+7	0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1036	944	210	40	5	26	74	297	9	17	5	222	285	358	643	136	294	29	7	280	72	-32	+1	-0	+19	+29	1.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	131	25	3	16	46	186	6	11	3	221	284	355	639	133	293	29	7	280	72	-20	+1	-0	+12	+18	1.1
Career	—			—	2720	2485	507	89	12	54	187	799	25	34	13	204	267	315	581	111	275	29	7	260	57	-131	+2	-1	+49	+77	-0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	594	121	21	3	13	45	191	6	8	3	204	267	315	581	111	274	29	7	260	57	-31	+0	-0	+12	+18	-0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL BOS Red	—	162	122	30	7	2	0	32	18	5	1	1	246	421	336	757	90	280	11	20	353	128	+5	-0	—	—	+5	1.0
2022	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	71	62	8	1	0	0	7	20	2	0	0	129	239	145	385	16	190	28	10	197	9	-7	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2023	19	A	Salem Red Sox	—	238	223	53	8	0	1	11	50	0	0	2	238	274	287	560	49	295	21	5	251	51	-13	-1	—	—	+7	-0.7
2024	20	A+	Greenville Drive	—	136	127	18	1	0	1	8	40	0	0	0	142	193	173	366	31	195	29	6	172	-10	-17	+0	—	—	+4	-1.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#6Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#6Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,036	26	16	218	278	352	+19	+12	1.9	1.9
	/162	664	17	11	218	278	352	+11.9	+7.7	1.2	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Enderso Lira (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	200/258/305	105	280	2	1	31%	6%	54	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Steven Baron 2013 · A	22	39	41→45	50	37	193/232/296	103	263	8	10	30%	4%	40	-2.4	194/233/281	87	280	5	9	31%	5%	36	-2.7	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Kevin Smith 2018 · A	22	39→43	44→55	53→50	34	197/234/315	118	286	11	8	35%	4%	45	-2.1	204/248/358	154	288	19	13	35%	5%	63	-0.8	197/249/369	171	265	21	17	34%	5%	65	-0.6
✕Tyler Kolodny 2010 · A	22	40→36	43→45	49→50	41	200/271/316	116	273	11	8	30%	6%	63	-0.9	212/286/347	135	281	14	10	29%	6%	78	+0.2	214/295/369	155	271	17	10	26%	6%	84	+0.2
✕Rodolfo Castro 2021 · A	22	37→40	47→55	46→50	35	194/234/331	137	275	15	6	35%	5%	50	-1.7	211/266/374	163	279	20	8	31%	6%	76	+0.0	205/272/358	153	266	19	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Jason Lopez 2021 · A	23	40	44→55	46→45	37	202/247/323	121	282	12	7	32%	5%	53	-1.5	194/256/297	103	298	10	10	36%	7%	50	-1.7	163/228/254	91	247	10	10	36%	8%	25	-0.9
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2022 · A	22	41→51	42→45	48→50	38	205/253/308	104	278	10	9	30%	5%	52	-1.6	235/290/335	100	323	11	12	29%	6%	75	-0.0	235/295/324	88	326	9	12	29%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Yu Chang 2017 · A	21	40→46	45→50	49→45	37	203/253/331	128	288	12	8	33%	5%	59	-1.1	203/261/346	143	284	16	8	33%	6%	66	-0.6	215/275/364	149	282	17	4	29%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Adrian Del Castillo 2023 · A	23	36→43	44→50	52→40	42	187/249/306	120	252	12	7	30%	7%	51	-1.7	207/278/346	139	286	15	3	31%	8%	73	-0.1	222/289/402	180	281	22	1	28%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Luis Santana 2022 · AA	23	39	42→45	47→50	39	198/255/299	101	269	10	10	30%	5%	51	-1.7	211/272/334	123	278	13	9	28%	6%	67	-0.5	201/263/321	120	259	14	7	27%	6%	57	-0.7
✕Zach Green 2016 · A	22	43→41	41→55	49→40	39	210/252/306	96	286	8	6	29%	5%	50	-1.7	204/259/337	133	322	14	3	39%	5%	63	-0.8	192/267/372	179	300	23	1	42%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Shane Zeile 2015 · A	22	41	41→50	46→40	39	205/254/304	99	281	9	5	30%	5%	51	-1.7	199/249/295	96	273	7	4	28%	5%	46	-2.0	187/237/299	112	249	8	2	27%	5%	41	-0.7
✕Tucker Mitchell 2023 · A	22	38	44→50	51→45	35	182/259/292	110	306	12	11	42%	6%	53	-1.5	199/263/309	110	291	13	7	34%	6%	58	-1.2	187/246/280	93	268	12	5	34%	5%	40	-1.0
✕Glenn Santiago 2023 · A	22	42	41→40	46→45	39	204/256/303	99	288	9	8	31%	6%	52	-1.6	199/262/282	83	293	7	9	32%	7%	50	-1.8	183/253/253	70	269	6	8	32%	7%	37	-1.1
✕Jiandido Tromp 2016 · A	22	36→45	44→55	49→45	33	184/225/298	114	272	11	8	36%	4%	37	-2.6	214/256/361	147	284	15	9	30%	5%	67	-0.5	215/259/359	144	281	15	8	29%	5%	65	-0.5
✕Kevin Padlo 2019 · A	23	35→40	45→55	45→50	43	180/260/303	123	268	12	7	36%	9%	55	-1.4	206/284/377	171	294	20	9	35%	9%	85	+0.7	195/265/371	176	262	22	12	34%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Blake Hunt 2021 · A	22	41	39→50	49→40	43	198/254/288	90	263	6	6	26%	6%	47	-1.9	192/251/307	115	278	12	4	34%	6%	52	-1.6	207/268/341	134	263	14	2	26%	6%	65	-0.3
✕Chris Roller 2019 · A	22	40	41→50	51→55	42	193/268/296	103	286	9	14	34%	8%	56	-1.3	205/269/314	109	292	8	12	30%	6%	60	-1.0	179/262/313	134	284	16	16	40%	8%	57	-0.7
✕Adam Abraham 2009 · A	22	39→47	44→50	49→40	43	197/259/310	113	258	12	5	28%	7%	56	-1.3	217/272/328	111	278	9	4	24%	6%	66	-0.6	216/278/345	129	272	14	2	25%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	39→49	38→45	48→50	44	184/272/269	85	267	5	10	31%	8%	52	-1.6	206/276/298	92	284	6	11	28%	6%	60	-1.0	223/293/322	99	294	9	16	26%	7%	70	-0.2