Enderso Lira — OGILVIE

Enderso LiraC Greenville Drive

Age 22 R/R 6'1" / 185 lbs A+ HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 93 proj PA

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .260 / .308

PA7

HR0

K%30

BB%6

ISO106

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL BOS Red	—	162	122	30	7	2	0	32	18	5	1	1	246	421	336	757	90	280	11	20	353	125	+5	-0	—	—	+4	0.8
2022	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	71	62	8	1	0	0	7	20	2	0	0	129	239	145	385	16	190	28	10	197	19	-7	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2023	19	A	Salem Red Sox	—	238	223	53	8	0	1	11	50	0	0	2	238	274	287	560	49	295	21	5	251	56	-12	-1	—	—	+5	-0.8
2024	20	A+	Greenville Drive	—	136	127	18	1	0	1	8	40	0	0	0	142	193	173	366	31	195	29	6	172	3	-16	+0	—	—	+3	-1.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Red	—	162	134	26	5	2	0	20	26	5	1	1	194	321	261	582	67	221	16	12	262	63	-7	-0	—	—	+4	-0.4
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	71	65	6	1	0	0	4	29	2	0	0	92	169	108	277	15	150	41	6	125	-29	-11	+0	—	—	+2	-1.0
2023	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	238	227	44	6	0	1	7	72	0	0	2	194	218	233	451	40	270	30	3	201	22	-22	-1	—	—	+5	-1.8
2024	20	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	136	129	14	1	0	1	6	56	0	0	0	109	148	140	288	31	175	41	4	126	-29	-21	+0	—	—	+3	-1.8
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Red	—	162	134	26	5	2	0	20	26	5	1	1	194	321	261	582	67	234	16	12	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Red	—	162	122	30	7	2	0	32	18	5	1	1	246	421	336	757	90	280	11	20	353	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	71	65	6	1	0	0	4	29	2	0	0	92	169	108	277	15	167	41	6	125	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	—	71	62	8	1	0	0	7	20	2	0	0	129	239	145	385	16	190	28	10	197	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	238	227	44	6	0	1	7	72	0	0	2	194	218	233	451	40	272	30	3	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	—	238	223	53	8	0	1	11	50	0	0	2	238	274	287	560	49	295	21	5	251	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	136	129	14	1	0	1	6	56	0	0	0	109	148	140	288	31	178	41	4	126	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	—	136	127	18	1	0	1	8	40	0	0	0	142	193	173	366	31	195	29	6	172	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Red	—	162	136	26	5	2	0	20	26	5	1	1	191	321	257	578	66	221	16	12	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	71	65	6	1	0	0	4	29	2	0	0	92	169	108	277	15	150	41	6	125	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	238	229	44	6	0	1	7	72	0	0	2	192	218	231	449	39	270	30	3	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	136	129	14	1	0	1	6	56	0	0	0	109	148	140	288	31	175	41	4	126	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	238	229	44	6	0	1	7	72	0	0	2	192	218	231	449	39	270	30	3	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	136	129	14	1	0	1	6	56	0	0	0	109	148	140	288	31	175	41	4	126	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	22	MLB MLE	BOS	0%	7	7	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	143	143	143	286		280	29	0	258	61	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BOS	35%	150	138	29	5	1	3	10	44	1	2	1	210	268	326	595	116	282	29	7	270	69	-5	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	BOS	46%	270	247	53	10	1	6	19	77	2	4	1	215	276	336	612	121	284	29	7	279	75	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	BOS	52%	347	317	70	13	2	9	24	97	3	6	2	221	282	360	642	139	285	28	7	284	78	-9	+0	+0	+6	+8	0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	397	363	80	15	2	10	28	110	3	6	2	220	282	355	637	135	285	28	7	286	80	-10	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	422	384	84	15	2	11	31	118	4	7	2	219	284	354	638	135	285	28	7	286	80	-10	+1	+0	+8	+9	0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	434	395	87	16	2	11	32	122	4	7	2	220	285	354	640	134	284	28	7	285	79	-11	+1	-1	+8	+9	0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	435	396	87	16	2	11	32	123	4	6	2	220	285	354	638	134	283	28	7	283	78	-11	+0	-1	+8	+9	0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	431	392	85	15	2	11	32	123	4	6	2	217	283	349	632	133	282	29	7	280	76	-12	+0	-2	+8	+9	0.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	BOS	59%	409	373	79	14	2	10	30	118	3	5	1	212	276	340	616	129	279	29	7	276	73	-13	+1	-3	+7	+9	0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	BOS	61%	382	348	73	13	2	9	28	111	3	4	1	210	274	336	611	126	276	29	7	271	69	-14	+0	-4	+7	+8	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	BOS	35%	52	49	10	2	0	1	3	15	0	1	0	204	250	306	556	102	288	29	6	267	69	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	BOS	46%	125	114	26	5	1	3	9	35	1	2	1	228	290	368	659	140	289	28	7	275	75	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	BOS	52%	179	162	36	7	1	4	13	50	2	3	1	222	288	352	640	130	290	28	7	279	78	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	215	196	43	8	1	5	15	60	2	3	1	219	282	347	629	128	290	28	7	282	80	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	229	208	47	9	1	6	17	64	2	4	1	226	291	365	656	139	290	28	7	282	80	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	236	215	48	9	1	6	17	66	2	4	1	223	286	358	644	135	289	28	7	281	79	-6	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	231	210	47	9	1	6	17	65	2	3	1	224	288	362	650	138	288	28	7	279	78	-6	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	245	223	49	9	1	6	18	70	2	3	1	220	284	350	634	130	287	29	7	276	76	-7	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.2
2035	31	MLB CTX	BOS	59%	243	221	48	9	1	6	18	70	2	3	1	217	282	348	631	131	285	29	7	272	73	-8	+0	-2	+4	+5	0.0
2036	32	MLB CTX	BOS	61%	234	213	45	8	1	5	17	68	2	2	1	211	276	329	605	117	281	29	7	267	69	-9	+0	-2	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1989	1811	399	75	9	48	144	563	17	28	9	220	284	351	635	131	290	28	7	277	68	-56	+2	-6	+36	+43	1.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	131	25	3	16	47	184	6	9	3	221	286	355	640	133	291	28	7	277	68	-18	+1	-2	+12	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4291	3915	818	145	20	93	303	1228	38	54	19	209	272	327	600	119	277	29	7	268	68	-104	+4	-10	+66	+80	3.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	124	22	3	14	46	186	6	8	3	209	273	327	600	118	277	29	7	268	68	-18	+1	-2	+12	+14	0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#4Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	3.0	1,989	49	28	217	278	348	+36	+20	3.6	3.4
/162	664	16	9	+11.9	+6.7	1.2	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Enderso Lira (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	203/260/308	105	280	2	1	30%	6%	61	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yu Chang 2017 · A	21	40→44	45→50	49→45	38	203/253/331	128	284	12	8	32%	6%	63	-1.3	200/259/336	136	279	14	8	32%	6%	67	-1.1	212/267/370	158	271	20	6	29%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Steven Baron 2013 · A	22	39	41→45	50	37	193/231/293	99	262	8	10	29%	4%	45	-2.7	197/236/286	89	278	6	9	30%	5%	45	-2.7	237/293/310	73	315	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Glenn Santiago 2023 · A	22	41	41→40	46→45	39	201/255/297	96	286	8	8	32%	6%	55	-1.9	198/263/285	87	291	7	9	32%	7%	57	-1.8	182/254/257	75	267	7	8	32%	8%	46	-1.1
✕Tyler Kolodny 2010 · A	22	40→36	43→45	49→50	41	200/271/316	116	273	11	8	30%	6%	67	-1.1	208/282/338	130	278	13	10	29%	6%	76	-0.4	207/287/352	145	264	16	10	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Kevin Smith 2018 · A	22	39→45	44→55	53→50	34	197/234/315	118	286	11	8	35%	4%	51	-2.2	206/249/353	147	289	17	13	34%	5%	67	-1.1	202/253/359	157	273	20	15	33%	6%	68	-0.7
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/298/304	85	284	8	4	24%	7%	74	-0.5	216/302/271	55	271	5	1	21%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Jason Lopez 2021 · A	23	40	43→50	46→45	38	201/248/313	112	281	10	7	32%	5%	57	-1.8	196/259/294	98	295	9	10	34%	8%	57	-1.8	166/232/250	84	247	9	10	35%	8%	35	-0.9
✕Tucker Mitchell 2023 · A	22	38	43→45	51→45	35	181/259/287	106	307	11	11	42%	7%	57	-1.8	200/265/308	108	290	13	7	34%	6%	63	-1.4	190/248/282	93	268	12	5	33%	5%	49	-1.0
✕Luis Santana 2022 · AA	23	40	43→45	47→50	40	201/259/308	107	270	11	10	29%	6%	60	-1.6	217/276/340	123	279	13	9	26%	6%	74	-0.5	208/269/326	118	262	13	7	25%	5%	65	-0.7
✕Adam Abraham 2009 · A	22	39→46	44→50	49→40	43	197/259/310	113	258	12	5	28%	7%	61	-1.5	217/273/330	113	277	10	4	24%	6%	70	-0.8	220/280/334	115	276	11	2	23%	7%	72	-0.3
✕Zach Green 2016 · A	22	42	40→55	49→40	39	208/248/301	93	281	8	6	28%	5%	53	-2.1	203/258/334	131	317	14	3	39%	5%	66	-1.1	194/261/373	179	295	22	1	40%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Rodolfo Castro 2021 · A	22	37→41	48→55	46→50	35	195/236/334	139	275	15	6	35%	5%	57	-1.8	212/267/368	156	279	19	8	31%	6%	78	-0.3	206/269/359	153	269	19	7	30%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Marcus Greene Jr. 2017 · A	22	34	46→50	44→40	39	181/247/307	126	264	15	5	36%	7%	56	-1.9	209/267/324	115	285	12	4	30%	7%	67	-1.1	208/268/318	109	276	12	2	28%	7%	64	-0.6
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	38→48	39→45	48→50	45	182/274/268	86	264	6	10	31%	8%	58	-1.7	206/278/301	95	283	7	11	28%	7%	66	-1.1	217/289/313	96	287	8	16	26%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Shane Zeile 2015 · A	22	41	41→50	46→40	39	205/254/304	99	281	9	5	30%	5%	57	-1.8	199/249/291	92	274	6	4	28%	5%	51	-2.2	188/237/292	105	252	6	2	27%	5%	46	-0.8
✕Corey Joyce 2021 · A	22	44	40	50	39	211/267/307	95	311	8	8	33%	6%	63	-1.4	201/290/309	108	293	11	12	33%	9%	74	-0.6	213/316/315	101	301	9	14	29%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Gerson Montilla 2012 · AA	22	40→47	42→50	48→45	38	198/244/308	109	261	9	8	28%	4%	54	-2.0	224/264/345	121	270	13	6	22%	5%	70	-0.9	226/266/344	118	270	13	5	21%	5%	68	-0.9
●Alonzo Harris 2011 · A	22	39→49	42→50	51→60	36	198/235/300	101	269	9	13	30%	4%	48	-2.5	224/267/314	90	290	7	19	24%	5%	63	-1.3	235/291/381	146	283	16	35	22%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Jiandido Tromp 2016 · A	22	36→46	42→50	49→45	33	183/223/290	107	271	10	8	36%	4%	42	-2.9	213/254/353	140	283	14	9	29%	5%	68	-1.0	214/259/354	140	279	14	8	28%	5%	68	-0.8
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2022 · A	22	42→52	41→45	48→50	38	208/254/308	100	283	9	9	29%	5%	57	-1.8	235/289/328	93	322	9	12	28%	6%	76	-0.4	235/295/316	82	324	8	12	28%	7%	72	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps