Juan Abreu prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Juan Abreu P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 115

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%21.9%

BB%15.1%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	11	0	17	64	31	10	0	0%	1.5	32.9%	19.5%	13.4%	0.0%	1.06	2.79	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	11	0	17	64	31	10	0	0%	1.5	48.4%	15.6%	32.8%	0.0%	1.06	1.22	—
2022	22	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	15	0	22	107	33	16	4	0%	1.5	21.0%	18.7%	2.3%	5.7%	4.91	6.85	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	15	0	22	107	33	16	4	0%	1.5	30.8%	15.0%	15.9%	3.7%	4.91	4.65	—
2023	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	34	0	45	202	45	40	4	0%	1.3	16.5%	23.4%	-6.9%	2.8%	5.24	6.21	—
2023	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	34	0	45	202	45	40	4	0%	1.3	16.5%	23.4%	-6.9%	2.8%	5.24	6.21	—
2023	23	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	34	0	45	202	45	40	4	0%	1.3	22.3%	19.8%	2.5%	2.0%	5.24	4.94	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.9%	15.1%	6.9%	3.0%	5.18	5.18	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	WSH	25	0	26	111	24	16	3	0%	1.0	22.1%	14.6%	7.5%	3.0%	5.12	5.13	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	WSH	10	0	10	42	9	6	1	0%	1.0	22.1%	14.6%	7.5%	3.0%	5.12	5.13	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	40	9	6	1	0%	1.1	22.1%	14.6%	7.5%	3.0%	5.12	4.75	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	189	126	21	0%	1.1	22.1%	14.6%	7.5%	3.0%	5.12	4.75	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		60	0	84	373	77	80	12	0%	1.4	20.6%	21.4%	-0.8%	3.2%	4.30	5.81	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		143	0	200	892	184	191	28	0%	1.4	20.6%	21.4%	-0.8%	3.2%	4.30	5.81	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Abreu (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	21.9%	15.1%	3.0%	—	5.13	22.1%	7.5%	26	-0.05	—	—	—
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	87
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	86
Esmerling Vasquez R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	26	SU	4.37	22.9%	14.6%	2.5%	.278	4.23	12.5%	1.5%	62	-0.14	3.70	204	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	86
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	86
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	85
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	85
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	85
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	84
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	84
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	84
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	84
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	84
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	84
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	84
Mitchell Stumpo R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	26	SU	4.55	24.0%	16.8%	2.4%	.225	5.67	21.5%	6.6%	78	+1.12	3.97	158	83
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	83
Manny Acosta R 2007 · 4.05 FIP	26	SU	4.05	23.7%	14.0%	2.1%	.196	4.23	19.0%	9.1%	130	+0.18	3.08	350	83
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	83
Jackson Goddard R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	26	SU	4.53	21.1%	14.3%	2.5%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	149	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	22.0%	14.8%	1.17	5.15
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35