Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | 16 | 3 | 45 | 178 | 41 | 12 | 2 | 19% | 2.8 | 15.7% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 2.2% | 1.59 | 4.03 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | 16 | 3 | 45 | 178 | 41 | 12 | 2 | 19% | 2.8 | 23.0% | 6.7% | 16.3% | 1.1% | 1.59 | 2.66 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 5 | 44 | 178 | 49 | 12 | 2 | 36% | 3.2 | 17.7% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 0.0% | 2.44 | 2.72 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 5 | 44 | 178 | 49 | 12 | 2 | 36% | 3.2 | 27.5% | 6.7% | 20.8% | 1.1% | 2.44 | 2.29 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 21 | 19 | 90 | 385 | 78 | 39 | 10 | 90% | 4.3 | 15.0% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.60 | 5.20 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 21 | 19 | 90 | 385 | 78 | 39 | 10 | 90% | 4.3 | 20.3% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 3.60 | 4.11 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 27 | 14 | 82 | 389 | 85 | 32 | 11 | 52% | 3.0 | 16.8% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 7.02 | 5.15 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 27 | 14 | 82 | 389 | 85 | 32 | 11 | 52% | 3.0 | 21.9% | 8.2% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 7.02 | 3.94 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 19 | 123 | 523 | 116 | 34 | 20 | 70% | 4.6 | 17.5% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 4.3% | 4.83 | 4.92 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 19 | 123 | 523 | 116 | 34 | 20 | 70% | 4.6 | 22.2% | 6.5% | 15.7% | 3.8% | 4.83 | 4.16 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 17 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 28 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 18.2% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 4.1% | 1.71 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | PHI | 72 | 0 | 75 | 318 | 51 | 25 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 5.07 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | PHI | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 5.07 | 5.07 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 102 | 428 | 79 | 37 | 13 | — | — | 18.5% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.20 | 5.06 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 16.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 5.07 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 72 | 0 | 76 | 321 | 56 | 26 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 4.95 | 4.92 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 72 | 0 | 76 | 321 | 58 | 26 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 71 | 0 | 75 | 317 | 58 | 26 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 24 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 4.95 | 4.92 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 39 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 45 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 137 | 0 | 144 | 608 | 110 | 49 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 4.50 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 153 | 68 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 122 | 60 | 411 | 1763 | 294 | 162 | 60 | 49% | 3.4 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 4.18 | 4.73 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 29 | 200 | 858 | 143 | 79 | 29 | 49% | 3.4 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 4.18 | 4.73 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Estibenzon Jimenez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.07 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 3.5% | — | 4.88 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 227 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 89 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 86 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .277 | 3.65 | 19.4% | 11.4% | 83 | -0.37 | 3.43 | 167 | 86 |
| Matt Peacock R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.22 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .300 | 4.20 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.96 | 354 | 86 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 85 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.44 | 4.37 | 160 | 85 |
| Thomas Ponticelli R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.73 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 3.4% | .264 | 5.29 | 15.3% | 2.9% | 163 | +0.56 | 2.59 | 367 | 85 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 83 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.29 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 5.23 | 16.8% | 4.6% | 91 | +0.94 | 4.03 | 161 | 83 |
| Cesar Gomez R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 4.2% | .316 | 5.06 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 160 | +0.16 | 3.97 | 345 | 82 |
| Matt Marsh R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.21 | 15.5% | 10.7% | 1.9% | .275 | 3.87 | 20.5% | 11.4% | 70 | -0.34 | 3.13 | 143 | 82 |
| Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.20 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .284 | 4.38 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.18 | 4.20 | 171 | 81 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.79 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .296 | 4.83 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 87 | +0.04 | 3.93 | 268 | 80 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 80 |
| Chase Centala R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 124 | 80 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2028 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 79 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.46 | 14.7% | 10.6% | 4.1% | .330 | 4.19 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 139 | -1.27 | 3.27 | 339 | 79 |
| Michael Ross R 2026 · 5.83 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.83 | 12.5% | 8.9% | 4.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 146 | 79 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2029 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 79 |
| Justin Dillon R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 11.8% | 8.8% | 3.7% | .265 | 4.34 | 15.6% | 9.1% | 124 | -0.89 | 3.63 | 239 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 76 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 1.34 | 4.94 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |