Andrew Vail
Andrew Vail
P
Lake Elsinore Storm
Age 25
LHP
6'1" / 185 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION7 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.3%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.9%
IP8
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2027
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 12 | 0 | 13 | 71 | 17 | 14 | 1 | 17.7% | 23.3% | 1.5% | 11.08 | 5.36 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | SD | 8 | — | 8 | 33 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SD | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 23.5% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 0 | 13 | 71 | 13 | 17 | 1 | 17.7% | 23.3% | 1.5% | 11.08 | 5.36 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 185 | 0 | 200 | 1092 | 200 | 262 | 15 | 17.7% | 23.3% | 1.5% | 11.08 | 5.36 | +0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andrew Vail (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.32 | 23.5% | 14.1% | 20 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.45 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 5.19 | 18.0% | 5.6% | 73 | +0.74 | 4.28 | 121 | 85 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 83 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.17 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.33 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.16 | 2.35 | 120 | 82 |
| Darien Núñez L 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.18 | 26.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .377 | 2.59 | 34.2% | 23.5% | 78 | -0.59 | 2.50 | 122 | 80 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2027 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.30 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .252 | 4.86 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.56 | 3.30 | 147 | 80 |
| Gabriel Sequeira L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.30 | 21.0% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .276 | 5.09 | 23.0% | 2.4% | 14 | +1.79 | 2.65 | 160 | 80 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.41 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .260 | 3.76 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.35 | 3.41 | 160 | 79 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.46 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 3.4% | .341 | 8.96 | 20.1% | 1.1% | 25 | +4.50 | 4.11 | 158 | 79 |
| Jake Kalish L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.96 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .231 | 3.85 | 17.0% | 11.9% | 352 | -0.11 | 2.68 | 740 | 79 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2028 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 4.1% | .296 | 2.67 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -2.02 | 2.51 | 160 | 78 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.24 | 24.8% | 14.2% | 2.6% | .382 | 4.08 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 156 | -0.16 | 2.44 | 171 | 78 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.16 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 1.3% | .331 | 3.75 | 18.1% | 10.1% | 167 | +0.59 | 3.08 | 310 | 78 |
| Peyton Alford L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.67 | 28.0% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .303 | 4.36 | 24.7% | 14.1% | 132 | +0.69 | 0.67 | 248 | 77 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 77 |
| Travis Bergen L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.71 | 21.5% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .259 | 4.39 | 22.9% | 4.6% | 47 | -0.32 | 2.52 | 143 | 77 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.10 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .317 | 3.30 | 18.8% | 11.9% | 135 | -0.80 | 2.94 | 245 | 77 |
| Miguel Aguilar L 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.38 | 22.9% | 12.2% | 1.2% | .273 | 3.61 | 22.5% | 14.4% | 87 | +0.23 | 2.21 | 261 | 77 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 77 |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 77 |
| Tyler Webb L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.07 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 3.5% | .324 | 3.36 | 24.3% | 17.3% | 185 | -0.71 | 3.10 | 337 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.