Francis Hernandez

P Salem Red Sox

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	ROKBOS	14	3	27	2.30	3.39	16.7%	9.6%	—	K 11.3% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.36
2024	22	ASalem Red Sox	32	1	65	7.20	4.70	19.1%	12.8%	—	K 14.2% · BB 15.0% · FIP 5.86
2027PROJ	25	MLBBOS	44	0	46	4.93	4.93	20.8%	12.2%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBBOS	18	0	19	4.85	4.84	21.2%	11.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBBOS	27	0	28	4.83	4.84	21.4%	11.7%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsBrad Deppermann (age 25) · Emmanuel Chapman (age 25) · Jarret Whorff (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%20.8%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%8.6%

Proj IP46

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Red	13	13	49	196	47	11	3	100%	3.8	16.3%	7.0%	9.3%	1.2%	2.92	3.27	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Red	13	13	49	196	47	11	3	100%	3.8	24.0%	5.6%	18.4%	1.5%	2.92	2.65	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	12	1	38	166	40	15	4	8%	3.2	16.4%	11.3%	5.1%	3.6%	4.46	5.11	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	12	1	38	166	40	15	4	8%	3.2	24.1%	9.0%	15.1%	2.4%	4.46	3.54	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	14	3	27	114	19	11	1	21%	2.0	11.3%	12.1%	-0.7%	1.3%	2.30	4.36	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	14	3	27	114	19	11	1	21%	2.0	16.7%	9.6%	7.0%	0.9%	2.30	3.39	—
2024	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	32	1	65	298	57	38	8	3%	2.0	14.2%	15.0%	-0.9%	3.7%	7.20	5.86	—
2024	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	32	1	65	298	57	38	8	3%	2.0	14.2%	15.0%	-0.9%	3.7%	7.20	5.86	—
2024	22	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	32	1	65	298	57	38	8	3%	2.0	19.1%	12.8%	6.4%	2.7%	7.20	4.70	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BOS	44	0	46	194	40	24	6	0%	1.0	20.8%	12.2%	8.6%	3.0%	4.93	4.93	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BOS	43	0	46	192	41	23	6	0%	1.1	21.2%	11.8%	9.4%	3.0%	4.85	4.84	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	BOS	43	0	45	189	40	22	6	0%	1.0	21.4%	11.7%	9.6%	3.1%	4.83	4.84	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	BOS	18	0	19	80	17	10	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	11.8%	9.4%	3.0%	4.85	4.84	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	BOS	27	0	28	118	25	14	4	0%	1.0	21.4%	11.7%	9.6%	3.1%	4.83	4.84	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	0	48	201	43	24	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.8%	9.5%	3.0%	4.84	4.46	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	181	101	25	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.8%	9.5%	3.0%	4.84	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		71	18	180	774	114	91	21	25%	2.5	14.8%	11.8%	3.0%	2.7%	4.70	4.82	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	20	200	860	127	101	23	25%	2.5	14.8%	11.8%	3.0%	2.7%	4.70	4.82	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Francis Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	20.8%	12.2%	3.0%	—	4.84	21.3%	9.5%	90	-0.09	—	—	—
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	87
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	84
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	84
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	83
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	83
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	83
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	82
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	82
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	82
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	81
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	81
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	81
Ross Ohlendorf R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	25	SW	4.73	16.3%	9.3%	3.3%	.357	4.63	15.4%	7.7%	324	-0.10	3.30	617	80
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	80
Sean Douglass R 2004 · 4.94 FIP	25	SW	4.94	20.1%	13.4%	3.4%	.274	4.82	14.7%	6.4%	87	-0.12	4.81	200	80
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	80
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	79
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	79
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	79
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	21.1%	11.9%	1.17	4.87
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68