Alexis Hernandez

LF Vancouver Canadians

Age 24 R/R 6'1" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	A+TOR	106	.293/.369/.467	3	4	98	—	.263/.320/.432
2025	22	ATOR	204	.244/.360/.401	5	10	53	—	.183/.276/.283
2026	23	AATOR	102	.341/.406/.451	1	4	122	—	.330/.376/.426
2026	23	A+TOR	329	.284/.386/.513	14	11	95	—	.231/.315/.409
2027PROJ0% MLB	24	MLBTOR	2	.212/.285/.348	0	0	78	-0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	25	MLBTOR	111	.214/.288/.354	3	3	81	-0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBTOR	179	.216/.289/.356	5	4	82	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

K%92

wRC+85

wOBA84

Z-Con%72

Whiff%69

BB%34

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 91%

CompsNick Podkul (age 25) · Lolo Sanchez (age 24) · Maxwell Costes (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .285 / .348

PA2

HR0

K%25

BB%8

BABIP261

ISO132

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	—	137	117	30	7	1	3	17	14	2	6	2	256	360	410	771	154	267	10	12	346	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	92	78	17	4	0	1	10	17	3	5	3	218	330	308	637	90	262	18	11	296	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	Salem Red Sox	—	174	151	38	8	0	3	20	38	2	11	1	252	347	364	711	113	315	22	11	324	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	18	10	5	1	0	0	8	0	0	2	0	500	722	600	1.322	100	500	0	44	583	197	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	177	151	33	5	0	4	21	42	5	17	1	219	333	331	664	113	276	24	12	310	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	106	92	27	5	1	3	10	18	1	4	1	293	369	467	836	174	324	17	9	361	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	204	172	42	12	0	5	26	47	5	10	3	244	360	401	761	157	308	23	13	344	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	INTL	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	27	23	7	1	0	1	2	6	1	0	0	304	385	478	863	174	353	22	7	371	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	102	91	31	7	0	1	9	16	1	4	2	341	406	451	856	110	405	16	9	381	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	329	275	78	17	2	14	36	66	10	11	3	284	386	513	899	229	322	20	11	387	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	—	137	122	19	4	1	1	12	17	2	6	2	156	243	230	472	74	168	12	9	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	92	82	12	2	0	1	6	24	3	5	3	146	231	207	438	61	187	26	7	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	174	158	33	7	0	2	13	53	2	11	1	209	277	291	569	82	297	30	7	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	18	13	5	1	0	0	5	0	0	2	0	385	556	462	1.017	77	397	0	28	459	197	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	177	157	28	4	0	3	15	55	5	17	1	178	271	261	532	83	253	31	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	106	95	25	5	1	3	7	25	1	4	1	263	320	432	752	168	294	24	7	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	204	180	33	9	0	3	18	66	5	10	3	183	276	283	559	100	264	32	9	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	102	94	31	6	0	1	6	19	1	4	2	330	376	426	802	96	406	19	6	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	329	286	66	14	2	11	25	89	10	11	3	231	315	409	724	178	274	27	8	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	—	137	122	19	4	1	1	12	17	2	6	2	156	243	230	472	74	171	12	9	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Blue	—	137	117	30	7	1	3	17	14	2	6	2	256	360	410	771	154	267	10	12	346	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	92	82	12	2	0	1	6	24	3	5	3	146	231	207	438	61	190	26	7	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	—	92	78	17	4	0	1	10	17	3	5	3	218	330	308	637	90	262	18	11	296	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	192	171	39	8	0	2	18	53	2	13	1	228	309	310	619	82	316	28	9	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	192	161	43	9	0	3	28	38	2	13	1	267	382	379	761	112	331	20	15	348	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	177	157	28	4	0	3	15	55	5	17	1	178	271	261	532	83	253	31	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	177	151	33	5	0	4	21	42	5	17	1	219	333	331	664	113	276	24	12	310	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	337	299	62	15	1	6	26	99	7	14	4	207	286	324	611	117	283	29	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	3 teams	—	337	287	76	18	1	9	38	71	7	14	4	265	364	429	793	164	318	21	11	352	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	431	379	97	20	2	12	32	109	11	15	5	256	332	414	746	158	324	25	7	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	431	366	109	24	2	15	45	82	11	15	5	298	391	497	888	199	344	19	10	386	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	—	137	122	19	4	1	1	12	17	2	6	2	156	243	230	472	74	168	12	9	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	92	83	12	2	0	1	6	24	3	5	3	145	231	205	436	60	187	26	7	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	192	170	39	8	0	2	18	53	2	13	1	229	309	312	621	82	306	28	9	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	177	155	28	4	0	3	15	55	5	17	1	181	271	265	536	84	253	31	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	337	301	62	15	1	6	26	99	7	14	4	206	286	322	608	116	274	29	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	431	385	97	20	2	12	32	109	11	15	5	252	332	408	740	156	305	25	7	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	177	155	28	4	0	3	15	55	5	17	1	181	271	265	536	84	253	31	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	337	301	62	15	1	6	26	99	7	14	4	206	286	322	608	116	274	29	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	431	385	97	20	2	12	32	109	11	15	5	252	332	408	740	156	305	25	7	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	0%	380	342	73	15	1	10	28	95	7	9	3	211	284	347	632	136	260	25	7	284	78	-10	+1	+0	-4	+8	-0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	0%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	212	285	348	633	136	261	0	0	285	78	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	30%	366	329	70	14	1	10	28	91	6	9	3	214	287	353	640	139	262	25	8	288	81	-8	+1	+0	-4	+8	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	44%	404	363	78	16	1	11	31	100	7	9	3	215	289	355	644	140	263	25	8	289	82	-9	+1	+0	-4	+9	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	30%	111	100	21	4	0	3	8	28	2	3	1	214	288	354	641	139	263	25	7	288	81	-3	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	44%	179	160	35	7	1	5	14	44	3	4	1	216	289	356	645	140	264	25	8	290	82	-4	+0	+0	-2	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	290	260	56	11	1	8	22	72	5	7	2	215	289	358	647	142	264	25	8	289	75	-6	+1	+0	-3	+6	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	126	25	2	18	49	161	11	16	4	216	289	358	647	142	265	25	8	289	75	-14	+1	+0	-7	+14	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	2456	2189	465	95	7	54	192	628	49	96	24	212	291	336	627	124	270	26	8	278	75	-25	+2	+0	-12	+24	-1.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	123	25	2	14	51	166	13	25	6	212	290	335	625	123	270	26	8	278	75	-15	+1	+0	-7	+14	-0.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Carl Warwick'61-'66 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,616 PA	2.4	1,616	31	13	245*	309*	381*	-9	-1	1.4	1.4
/162	664	13	5	-3.6	-0.6	0.6	pk7: 1
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	291	8	7	215	286	356	-3	-1	-0.1	-0.0
/162	664	18	15	-7.1	-2.3	-0.2	pk7: 0
#5Ray Coleman'47-'52 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,902 PA	2.9	1,902	20	19	249*	297*	399*	-12	-1	-0.1	-0.1
/162	664	7	7	-4.4	-0.4	-0.0	pk7: -0
#6Rip Russell'39-'47 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,522 PA	2.3	1,522	29	4	236*	279*	389*	-16	-12	-2.7	-2.7
/162	664	13	2	-6.9	-5.1	-1.2	pk7: -3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alexis Hernandez (OGILVIE)	24	35	40	50	50	209/282/344	135	260	8	8	25%	7%	78	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Podkul 2022 · AA	25	39	44→50	51→50	46	196/271/312	116	260	11	11	28%	8%	66	-1.1	211/300/351	140	290	16	6	31%	9%	86	+0.3	202/300/344	142	280	17	3	32%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Lolo Sanchez 2023 · AA	24	43→45	44→45	50→55	50	214/293/323	108	257	12	18	21%	9%	77	-0.3	206/277/287	81	252	7	10	20%	8%	62	-1.4	191/265/252	61	231	5	7	18%	8%	47	-1.0
✕Maxwell Costes 2024 · AA	25	42	47→50	50→45	46	213/296/347	134	270	16	8	26%	8%	84	+0.1	204/274/304	100	255	10	8	23%	7%	65	-1.2	162/236/211	50	196	5	3	20%	7%	29	-1.2
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2019 · AA	23	41→40	47→50	54→55	44	208/283/351	143	281	14	17	30%	8%	80	-0.2	198/279/320	122	275	12	17	30%	8%	71	-0.8	173/262/276	103	236	10	19	29%	9%	53	-1.1
✕Brennen Davis 2024 · AAA	24	37→43	43→50	46→45	41	187/271/296	108	268	12	11	33%	7%	63	-1.3	200/289/350	150	264	19	8	31%	8%	83	+0.1	188/287/362	173	236	23	4	30%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Mike McGee 2013 · A	24	45→43	45	48→45	45	225/280/349	124	272	12	8	22%	6%	77	-0.3	205/267/310	105	291	10	9	31%	7%	63	-1.3	102/183/147	45	177	7	7	44%	9%	-5	-1.2
✕Stefan Trosclair 2018 · A	24	43→42	47→50	50	44	214/288/348	134	285	14	9	29%	7%	81	-0.1	214/278/341	127	301	13	7	32%	6%	75	-0.5	201/264/327	126	284	14	4	33%	5%	65	-0.9
✕Jeremy Rathjen 2015 · A	25	42→40	47→45	51→50	44	214/281/349	135	275	15	14	27%	7%	78	-0.3	203/258/328	125	275	13	9	30%	6%	64	-1.3	159/208/266	107	210	12	5	31%	5%	28	-1.7
✕Cory Vaughn 2013 · A	24	39→42	46→45	49→50	44	198/280/328	130	273	14	12	32%	8%	74	-0.6	197/269/311	114	280	12	14	32%	7%	65	-1.2	185/256/288	103	264	11	14	33%	7%	52	-1.2
✕Tony Bullard 2024 · A	24	40	44→40	52→50	43	202/263/315	113	267	12	12	29%	7%	63	-1.3	214/271/319	105	285	9	12	27%	6%	68	-1.0	210/267/311	102	278	9	13	27%	6%	61	-0.5
✕Dallas Carroll 2018 · A	24	47→33	45	46→45	45	232/289/347	116	279	13	9	22%	6%	80	-0.1	186/247/266	80	257	7	7	29%	7%	46	-2.6	166/227/231	65	226	6	6	28%	7%	29	-3.8
✕Kyler Fedko 2024 · A	24	42	43→50	50→55	52	208/295/320	112	268	10	10	25%	10%	77	-0.3	203/283/334	131	259	15	18	26%	9%	76	-0.4	195/275/339	144	243	18	22	27%	9%	72	-0.5
✕River Town 2023 · A	24	40→38	44→40	55→50	47	201/283/322	121	254	11	15	25%	8%	74	-0.6	215/303/306	91	265	8	14	20%	9%	77	-0.3	215/311/283	68	261	5	15	18%	9%	73	-0.3
✕Chase Strumpf 2022 · AA	24	42→37	43→50	48→45	46	205/287/320	115	295	10	7	32%	9%	74	-0.5	197/296/347	150	315	17	5	39%	10%	84	+0.2	181/287/333	152	294	19	3	41%	11%	75	-0.3
✕Zack Short 2019 · AA	24	40→39	47→50	47→45	51	202/293/345	143	270	14	9	29%	11%	82	+0.0	198/291/335	137	280	14	7	32%	10%	79	-0.2	177/277/302	125	240	14	9	31%	11%	66	-0.8
✕Jeter Downs 2022 · AAA	24	36→41	46→50	53→55	41	190/255/315	125	268	15	19	34%	7%	61	-1.5	185/268/313	128	266	15	22	34%	8%	66	-1.1	176/270/315	139	246	15	26	33%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Ryan Cordell 2016 · AA	24	46→42	48→50	55→50	41	234/280/377	144	297	16	15	27%	5%	84	+0.1	217/263/360	143	281	16	14	28%	5%	74	-0.6	205/250/346	141	263	15	14	28%	5%	63	-0.7
✕Richie Shaffer 2015 · AA	24	39→40	48→55	52→40	43	201/263/348	147	262	15	6	29%	7%	72	-0.7	203/273/365	162	281	19	5	33%	8%	79	-0.2	192/268/351	159	273	20	4	36%	8%	72	-0.6
✕Brandon Meredith 2014 · A	24	43→39	49→50	46→45	47	218/299/372	154	287	16	8	29%	9%	90	+0.6	209/283/347	138	275	16	7	28%	8%	78	-0.3	191/266/325	134	242	17	5	28%	8%	64	-0.5
✕Andrew Navigato 2022 · AA	24	41	44→55	46→50	45	204/280/319	115	283	11	13	30%	8%	72	-0.7	220/279/374	154	275	17	14	26%	6%	84	+0.1	218/278/389	170	267	20	17	26%	6%	83	+0.1

Alexis Hernandez

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps