Luis Tejeda
P
Visalia Rawhide
+0.4
WAR
Age 25
RHP
5'10" / 170 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.9%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%13.3%
IP67
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | DSL D-backs 1 | 17 | 0 | 25 | 121 | 21 | 9 | 0 | 11.8% | 9.3% | 0.0% | 4.26 | 3.28 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 25 | 0 | 37 | 178 | 28 | 20 | 4 | 10.7% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 5.59 | 5.46 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 35 | 0 | 67 | 313 | 69 | 42 | 9 | 16.3% | 15.8% | 3.7% | 6.07 | 5.77 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 65 | 27 | 9 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 65 | 27 | 9 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.39 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 65 | 27 | 8 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 64 | 26 | 8 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 62 | 26 | 8 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.46 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 60 | 25 | 8 | 22.9% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 57 | 25 | 8 | 22.6% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 54 | 24 | 8 | 22.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 51 | 24 | 8 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 48 | 23 | 8 | 21.7% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 4.82 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 44 | 22 | 7 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 4.94 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 40 | 21 | 7 | 20.9% | 10.9% | 3.7% | 5.06 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 77 | 0 | 129 | 612 | 84 | 85 | 17 | 13.8% | 13.9% | 2.7% | 5.58 | 5.19 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 119 | 0 | 200 | 949 | 130 | 132 | 26 | 13.8% | 13.9% | 2.7% | 5.58 | 5.19 | +0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Tejeda (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.40 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 198 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 95 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 93 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 92 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 89 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .313 | 3.35 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.33 | 2.78 | 312 | 89 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 89 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .284 | 3.18 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 103 | -0.81 | 3.13 | 179 | 88 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 88 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 88 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 3.0% | .331 | 4.32 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 122 | +0.00 | 3.48 | 290 | 88 |
| Dusty Isaacs R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.97 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .255 | 4.63 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.66 | 3.16 | 253 | 88 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 88 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.41 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.65 | 255 | 88 |
| Alex Phillips R 2025 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.34 | 3.26 | 139 | 87 |
| Darin Gillies R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.82 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 4.2% | .294 | 4.84 | 23.2% | 12.8% | 106 | +0.02 | 4.22 | 295 | 87 |
| Jake Barrett R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.64 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .250 | 3.83 | 24.1% | 12.5% | 118 | +0.19 | 1.48 | 230 | 87 |
| Cody Tucker R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.99 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.1% | .272 | 5.30 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.31 | 4.99 | 105 | 87 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.25 | 22.7% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .232 | 4.70 | 20.0% | 8.7% | 139 | +0.45 | 3.60 | 246 | 87 |
| Trent Harris R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.46 | 26.9% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .258 | 3.75 | 23.1% | 14.7% | 57 | +0.29 | 3.46 | 134 | 86 |
| Héctor Neris R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.97 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .298 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -0.97 | 1.99 | 682 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | — | — | — |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $8M | $4M | -$4M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.