Joe Elbis

P Hillsboro Hops

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 150 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #1004MiLBFA 2034

ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	19	AARI	3	3	10	9.00	1.50	28.0%	8.0%	—	K 20.7% · BB 9.4% · FIP 2.55
2023	20	MIX2 levels	24	24	115	3.75	3.87	19.2%	10.1%	—	K 14.6% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.78
2024	21	MIX2 levels	24	24	135	3.39	3.35	19.9%	8.3%	—	K 15.6% · BB 9.4% · FIP 4.06
2027PROJ	24	MLBARI	28	28	155	4.59	4.59	18.7%	8.6%	0.6
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBARI	12	12	68	4.39	4.34	19.7%	8.1%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBARI	17	17	104	4.32	4.29	20.3%	8.0%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$4M2033Arb-3$4M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command60FB velo45

CompsMicah Owings (age 24) · Trystan Vrieling (age 23) · Tyler Herb (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%18.7%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%10.1%

Proj IP155

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 155 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4550

CMD5060

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	10	54	218	59	7	4	83%	4.5	18.8%	3.9%	14.8%	2.6%	3.52	3.44	—
2021	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	10	54	218	59	7	4	83%	4.5	27.1%	3.2%	23.9%	1.8%	3.52	2.26	—
2022	19	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	3	3	10	50	14	4	0	100%	3.3	20.7%	9.4%	11.3%	0.0%	9.00	2.55	—
2022	19	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	3	3	10	50	14	4	0	100%	3.3	28.0%	8.0%	20.0%	0.0%	9.00	1.50	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	115	504	97	51	10	100%	4.8	14.6%	11.7%	2.9%	2.6%	3.75	4.78	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	115	504	97	51	10	100%	4.8	19.2%	10.1%	9.1%	2.0%	3.75	3.87	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	135	563	112	47	9	100%	5.6	15.6%	9.4%	6.1%	2.0%	3.39	4.06	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	135	563	112	47	9	100%	5.6	15.6%	9.4%	6.1%	2.0%	3.39	4.06	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	135	563	112	47	9	100%	5.6	19.9%	8.3%	11.5%	1.6%	3.39	3.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ARI	28	28	155	654	122	56	19	100%	5.5	18.7%	8.6%	10.1%	2.9%	4.59	4.59	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	27	27	157	664	131	54	19	100%	5.8	19.7%	8.1%	11.7%	2.9%	4.48	4.43	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	26	26	157	664	135	53	19	100%	6.0	20.3%	8.0%	12.3%	2.9%	4.41	4.38	+1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	26	26	155	654	133	53	19	100%	6.0	20.4%	8.1%	12.3%	3.0%	4.41	4.41	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	25	25	150	634	129	52	19	100%	6.0	20.3%	8.2%	12.1%	3.1%	4.46	4.49	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	24	24	143	605	121	51	19	100%	6.0	20.1%	8.4%	11.6%	3.2%	4.56	4.62	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	135	569	112	50	19	100%	6.1	19.7%	8.7%	11.0%	3.4%	4.70	4.80	+0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	126	531	102	48	19	100%	6.0	19.3%	9.1%	10.2%	3.6%	4.88	5.00	-0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	116	491	93	47	19	100%	6.1	18.9%	9.5%	9.4%	3.9%	5.09	5.23	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	68	287	57	23	8	100%	5.7	19.7%	8.1%	11.7%	2.7%	4.39	4.34	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	104	439	89	35	12	100%	6.1	20.3%	8.0%	12.3%	2.8%	4.32	4.29	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	120	507	103	41	14	100%	6.0	20.4%	8.1%	12.3%	2.8%	4.32	4.32	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	21	21	126	532	108	44	15	100%	6.0	20.3%	8.2%	12.1%	2.9%	4.37	4.40	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	21	21	126	532	107	45	16	100%	6.0	20.1%	8.4%	11.6%	3.0%	4.46	4.52	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	121	511	101	45	17	100%	6.0	19.7%	8.7%	11.0%	3.2%	4.60	4.70	+0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	ARI	19	19	115	486	94	44	17	100%	6.1	19.3%	9.1%	10.2%	3.4%	4.77	4.89	-0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	108	456	86	43	17	100%	6.0	18.9%	9.5%	9.4%	3.7%	4.97	5.11	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		148	148	887	3747	744	319	116	100%	6.0	19.9%	8.5%	11.3%	3.1%	4.53	4.20	+7.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	168	72	26	100%	6.0	19.9%	8.5%	11.3%	3.1%	4.53	4.20	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		63	61	314	1335	213	125	30	97%	5.0	15.9%	9.4%	6.5%	2.2%	3.72	4.17	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	39	200	849	135	80	19	97%	5.0	15.9%	9.4%	6.5%	2.2%	3.72	4.17	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Elbis (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	18.7%	8.6%	2.9%	—	4.41	20.1%	12.1%	469	-0.18	—	—	—
Micah Owings R 2007 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.4%	3.1%	.264	4.75	16.4%	5.4%	258	+0.40	4.23	473	90
Trystan Vrieling R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	17.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.84	17.9%	5.3%	198	+0.82	4.02	345	90
Tyler Herb R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	17.2%	10.1%	2.5%	.298	4.67	15.7%	7.0%	378	+0.38	3.79	867	87
Brady Feigl R 2019 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP	3.93	15.9%	7.0%	2.3%	.333	5.26	19.4%	9.8%	122	+1.33	3.93	257	86
Brian Howard R 2019 · 3.76 FIP	24	SP	3.76	17.6%	8.1%	2.0%	.356	5.50	17.6%	8.5%	180	+1.74	3.67	490	86
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP	4.41	17.7%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.25	21.0%	10.6%	135	+0.84	1.49	373	86
Chad Kuhl R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	24	SP	4.03	20.9%	9.6%	2.7%	.311	4.88	21.9%	11.3%	131	+0.85	3.92	983	86
Blayne Weller R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	16.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.326	5.65	17.6%	8.4%	103	+1.50	4.15	254	86
Austin Voth R 2016 · 3.72 FIP	24	SP	3.72	17.7%	8.6%	1.9%	.275	4.29	18.5%	10.7%	364	+0.57	3.41	1,057	85
Kade Morris R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	16.1%	8.4%	3.5%	.282	4.36	15.6%	8.3%	264	-0.36	3.89	395	85
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	84
Jack Mahoney R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	17.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.307	4.16	15.0%	4.8%	206	+0.25	3.80	326	84
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	84
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP	4.06	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	3.91	23.9%	15.7%	451	-0.15	3.72	709	84
Reggie McClain R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	15.0%	6.2%	3.3%	.315	4.26	16.2%	9.0%	227	-0.18	2.99	452	84
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	84
Max Rajcic R 2024 · 4.11 FIP	22	SP	4.11	18.7%	8.5%	2.7%	.307	4.65	17.6%	8.2%	159	+0.54	3.15	413	84
Jose Reyes R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	24	SP	4.25	14.6%	6.5%	2.8%	.289	5.11	11.0%	2.8%	100	+0.86	4.25	225	83
Trent Baker R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	24	SP	3.88	16.3%	6.0%	2.5%	.279	4.27	19.7%	10.4%	253	+0.39	3.86	496	83
Ian Mejia R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	5.06	16.0%	6.6%	194	+0.84	3.94	439	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.5	144	19.7%	8.5%	1.23	4.60
Max Surkont ('49-'57, 5 WAR*)	6.0	149	20.0%*	8.4%*	1.27*	4.76*
Kyle Gibson ('25)	9.4	156	18.8%	8.2%	1.12	4.60
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Tim Leary ('81-'94, 9 WAR*)	7.5	136	18.1%*	8.1%*	1.18*	4.72*
Joe Coleman ('42-'55, 6 WAR*)	5.7	142	18.0%*	9.1%*	1.25*	4.62*
Orlando Hernandez ('07)	6.6	146	19.5%	8.6%	1.21	4.13