Sergio Caruci prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Sergio Caruci P FCL Blue Jays

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 155 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 5 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%23.0%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%9.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	16	10	51	204	61	15	4	62%	3.2	20.3%	9.2%	11.1%	2.4%	2.84	3.88	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	16	10	51	204	61	15	4	62%	3.2	29.9%	7.4%	22.5%	2.0%	2.84	2.61	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	10	5	40	171	36	18	3	50%	4.0	14.3%	13.2%	1.2%	2.7%	4.76	5.05	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	10	5	40	171	36	18	3	50%	4.0	21.1%	10.5%	10.5%	1.8%	4.76	3.63	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	6	0	8	52	9	16	3	0%	1.4	11.8%	38.5%	-26.7%	8.0%	14.04	11.39	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	6	0	8	52	9	16	3	0%	1.4	11.8%	38.5%	-26.7%	8.0%	14.04	11.39	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	6	0	8	52	9	16	3	0%	1.4	17.3%	30.8%	-13.5%	5.8%	14.04	11.38	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.0%	13.7%	9.3%	3.0%	4.93	4.93	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	19	0	20	84	20	10	3	0%	1.1	23.6%	12.2%	11.4%	3.0%	4.75	4.67	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	9	0	9	38	9	5	1	0%	1.0	23.6%	12.2%	11.4%	3.0%	4.75	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	9	4	1	0%	1.1	23.6%	12.2%	11.4%	3.0%	4.75	4.29	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	211	94	23	0%	1.1	23.6%	12.2%	11.4%	3.0%	4.75	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		32	15	99	427	72	61	14	47%	3.1	16.9%	14.3%	2.5%	3.2%	4.56	5.26	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	30	200	866	146	124	28	47%	3.1	16.9%	14.3%	2.5%	3.2%	4.56	5.26	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sergio Caruci (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	23.0%	13.7%	3.0%	—	4.67	23.6%	11.4%	20	-0.26	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	83
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	80
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	79
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	78
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	78
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	78
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	77
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	77
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	76
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	76
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.80	25.1%	15.0%	175	-0.63	2.47	305	76
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	76
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.9%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	75
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	75
Kevin Abel R 2022 · 5.92 FIP	23	SW	5.92	25.2%	22.4%	3.9%	.441	4.63	18.6%	4.5%	308	-1.29	4.50	450	74
Nick Gallagher R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	23	SP-	4.56	22.0%	17.9%	1.9%	.274	5.02	21.0%	7.0%	73	+0.46	4.10	196	74
Matt Albers R 2006 · 3.87 FIP	23	SP-	3.87	16.7%	10.6%	1.5%	.340	4.45	14.2%	4.6%	227	+0.58	3.15	749	74
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	73
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	73
Victor Simeon R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	22	SW	5.53	20.3%	15.7%	3.9%	.333	3.87	25.6%	5.4%	81	-1.66	3.22	180	73