Winston Santos

P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

AARP40-MANROOKIEMiLBFA 2034

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	22	22	110	3.67	2.82	30.1%	7.4%	—	K 23.6% · BB 8.4% · FIP 3.67
2025	23	MIX2 levels	6	6	17	6.75	1.31	33.3%	9.0%	—	K 28.3% · BB 8.7% · FIP 1.82
2026	24	MIX3 levels	26	19	85	6.86	4.66	26.5%	10.2%	0.2	K 22.3% · BB 10.2% · FIP 5.17
2027PROJ	25	MLBTEX	22	22	130	4.66	4.66	23.3%	9.6%	0.4
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBTEX	12	12	69	4.74	4.73	23.4%	9.4%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBTEX	16	16	93	4.73	4.74	23.2%	9.4%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$2M2033Ext$1M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff52Control53Command50FB velo57

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 7, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 78%

CompsJake Lee (age 24) · Dylan DeLucia (age 23) · Matt Wise (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%23.3%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%13.6%

Proj IP130

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD4050

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	11	6	33	134	36	9	1	55%	3.0	18.3%	8.4%	9.9%	1.0%	3.27	3.19	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	11	6	33	134	36	9	1	55%	3.0	26.9%	6.7%	20.1%	0.7%	3.27	2.13	—
2022	20	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	22	21	108	448	108	30	8	95%	4.9	17.8%	7.9%	9.9%	2.5%	3.49	3.99	—
2022	20	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	22	21	108	448	108	30	8	95%	4.9	24.1%	6.7%	17.4%	1.8%	3.49	2.90	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	25	23	99	442	88	26	19	92%	3.9	15.3%	6.8%	8.6%	5.7%	6.29	5.77	—
2023	21	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	25	23	99	442	88	26	19	92%	3.9	19.9%	5.9%	14.0%	4.3%	6.29	4.61	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	110	459	138	34	11	100%	5.0	23.6%	8.4%	15.3%	2.7%	3.67	3.67	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	110	459	138	34	11	100%	5.0	23.6%	8.4%	15.3%	2.7%	3.67	3.67	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	110	459	138	34	11	100%	5.0	30.1%	7.4%	22.7%	2.4%	3.67	2.82	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	17	78	26	7	0	100%	2.9	28.3%	8.7%	19.6%	0.0%	6.75	1.82	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	17	78	26	7	0	100%	2.9	28.3%	8.7%	19.6%	0.0%	6.75	1.82	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	17	78	26	7	0	100%	2.9	33.3%	9.0%	24.4%	0.0%	6.75	1.31	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	19	85	393	104	40	17	73%	3.3	22.3%	10.2%	12.1%	4.8%	6.86	5.17	-0.3
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	19	85	393	104	40	17	73%	3.3	22.3%	10.2%	12.1%	4.8%	6.86	5.17	-0.3
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	19	85	393	104	40	17	73%	3.3	26.5%	10.2%	16.3%	4.3%	6.86	4.66	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	2	9	1	1	1	0%	2.0	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	11.1%	9.00	10.10	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TEX	22	22	130	549	128	53	19	100%	5.9	23.3%	9.6%	13.6%	3.5%	4.66	4.66	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	24	24	142	601	140	57	21	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.4%	13.9%	3.4%	4.60	4.59	+0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	TEX	23	23	140	592	138	55	21	100%	6.1	23.2%	9.4%	13.9%	3.5%	4.59	4.60	+0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	TEX	23	23	136	574	132	54	20	100%	5.9	23.1%	9.4%	13.6%	3.5%	4.63	4.67	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	TEX	22	22	130	548	125	53	20	100%	5.9	22.8%	9.6%	13.2%	3.7%	4.72	4.79	+0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	TEX	20	20	122	516	116	51	20	100%	6.1	22.4%	9.9%	12.5%	3.9%	4.87	4.97	-0.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	TEX	19	19	114	481	106	49	20	100%	6.0	22.0%	10.3%	11.8%	4.1%	5.05	5.17	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	69	291	68	27	11	100%	5.8	23.4%	9.4%	13.9%	3.7%	4.74	4.73	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	93	393	91	37	15	100%	5.8	23.2%	9.4%	13.9%	3.7%	4.73	4.74	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	TEX	18	18	105	443	102	42	17	100%	5.8	23.1%	9.4%	13.6%	3.8%	4.78	4.82	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	TEX	18	18	108	456	104	44	18	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.6%	13.2%	4.0%	4.87	4.94	+0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	TEX	18	18	106	448	100	44	19	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.9%	12.5%	4.2%	5.03	5.13	-0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	TEX	17	17	102	431	95	44	19	100%	6.0	22.0%	10.3%	11.8%	4.4%	5.22	5.34	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		98	97	583	2464	560	239	99	99%	6.0	22.7%	9.7%	13.0%	4.0%	4.92	4.61	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	845	192	82	34	99%	6.0	22.7%	9.7%	13.0%	4.0%	4.92	4.61	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		112	97	453	1954	390	162	69	87%	4.0	20.0%	8.3%	11.7%	3.6%	4.89	4.41	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	43	200	863	172	72	31	87%	4.0	20.0%	8.3%	11.7%	3.6%	4.89	4.41	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Winston Santos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	23.3%	9.6%	3.5%	—	4.62	23.2%	13.8%	418	-0.04	—	—	—
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	80
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	78
Matt Wise R 2001 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	23.7%	8.1%	5.2%	.271	3.50	13.5%	7.2%	53	-1.48	3.33	302	75
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	75
Burch Smith R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	23	SP-	5.18	27.5%	12.0%	5.3%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	418	74
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	73
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	73
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.41	21.2%	12.3%	382	+0.03	3.64	556	73
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	72
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	71
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	70
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	70
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	70
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	70
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	70
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	69
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	69
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	69
Shane McCarthy R 2021 · 5.47 FIP	25	SP	5.47	18.9%	11.9%	4.5%	.240	8.32	14.3%	3.9%	18	+2.85	2.07	117	69
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	131	22.9%	9.6%	1.42	4.73
Jack Bentley ('13-'27, 5 WAR*)	3.6	143	21.1%*	9.8%*	1.35*	4.67*
Bill Voiselle ('42-'50, 12 WAR*)	6.9	172	23.3%*	9.2%*	1.41*	4.32*
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Dan Straily ('19)	4.0	115	19.8%	9.1%	1.60	4.56
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61