José Davila

P Peoria Chiefs

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 177 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2436ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ASTL	22	21	109	3.54	2.30	24.5%	10.0%	—	K 18.1% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.06
2025	22	A+STL	24	22	98	6.06	4.29	19.4%	11.0%	—	K 15.0% · BB 12.7% · FIP 5.39
2026	23	MIX3 levels	31	0	40	4.99	3.40	29.4%	12.2%	—	K 24.5% · BB 13.4% · FIP 3.97
2027PROJ	24	MLBSTL	1	0	1	5.05	5.05	19.1%	12.5%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSTL	42	0	44	4.76	4.70	20.1%	11.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBSTL	59	0	62	4.66	4.62	20.5%	10.9%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$1.0M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJose Rafael De Paula (age 24) · Hunter Adkins (age 25) · Willis Roberts (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.05

FIP5.05

K%19.1%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%6.6%

Proj IP129

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$6M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	9	54	239	54	34	1	60%	3.6	17.0%	15.3%	1.7%	0.7%	4.86	4.00	—
2021	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	9	54	239	54	34	1	60%	3.6	22.6%	14.2%	8.4%	0.4%	4.86	3.23	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	13	64	273	54	28	3	87%	4.3	13.9%	12.3%	1.6%	1.5%	3.22	4.33	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	13	64	273	54	28	3	87%	4.3	19.8%	10.3%	9.5%	1.1%	3.22	3.33	—
2023	20	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	20	10	74	333	71	31	2	50%	3.7	15.8%	11.0%	4.8%	0.8%	5.69	3.58	—
2023	20	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	20	10	74	333	71	31	2	50%	3.7	21.3%	9.3%	12.0%	0.6%	5.69	2.79	—
2024	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	22	21	109	461	113	46	0	95%	5.0	18.1%	11.8%	6.4%	0.0%	3.54	3.06	—
2024	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	22	21	109	461	113	46	0	95%	5.0	18.1%	11.8%	6.4%	0.0%	3.54	3.06	—
2024	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	22	21	109	461	113	46	0	95%	5.0	24.5%	10.0%	14.5%	0.0%	3.54	2.30	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	22	98	453	88	50	11	92%	4.1	15.0%	12.7%	2.3%	3.5%	6.06	5.39	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	22	98	453	88	50	11	92%	4.1	15.0%	12.7%	2.3%	3.5%	6.06	5.39	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	24	22	98	453	88	50	11	92%	4.1	19.4%	11.0%	8.4%	2.4%	6.06	4.29	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	0	40	180	53	22	4	0%	1.3	24.5%	13.4%	11.1%	2.3%	4.99	3.97	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	0	40	180	53	22	4	0%	1.3	24.5%	13.4%	11.1%	2.3%	4.99	3.97	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	0	40	180	53	22	4	0%	1.3	29.4%	12.2%	17.2%	2.2%	4.99	3.40	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	STL	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	19.1%	12.5%	6.6%	2.9%	5.05	5.05	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	98	0	103	434	87	49	13	0%	1.0	20.1%	11.2%	8.8%	2.9%	4.87	4.81	-0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	89	0	94	395	81	43	12	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.9%	9.6%	2.9%	4.77	4.73	-0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	84	0	89	374	77	41	11	0%	1.1	20.6%	10.8%	9.8%	3.0%	4.75	4.74	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	80	0	84	353	72	39	11	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.9%	9.6%	3.1%	4.79	4.82	-0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	74	0	78	327	66	36	11	0%	1.0	20.3%	11.1%	9.1%	3.2%	4.88	4.95	-0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	STL	67	0	70	297	59	34	10	0%	1.0	19.9%	11.4%	8.5%	3.4%	5.03	5.13	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	42	0	44	186	37	21	5	0%	1.0	20.1%	11.2%	8.8%	2.7%	4.76	4.70	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	59	0	62	262	54	29	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.9%	9.6%	2.7%	4.66	4.62	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	66	0	69	291	60	32	8	0%	1.0	20.6%	10.8%	9.8%	2.8%	4.64	4.63	-0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	67	0	70	296	61	32	8	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.9%	9.6%	2.9%	4.67	4.70	-0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	65	0	68	287	58	32	9	0%	1.0	20.3%	11.1%	9.1%	3.0%	4.76	4.83	-0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	STL	60	0	63	266	53	30	8	0%	1.1	19.9%	11.4%	8.5%	3.2%	4.90	5.00	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		358	0	376	1589	323	176	46	0%	1.1	20.3%	11.1%	9.3%	2.9%	4.73	4.36	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	94	24	0%	1.1	20.3%	11.1%	9.3%	2.9%	4.73	4.36	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		127	75	439	1939	327	243	29	59%	3.5	16.8%	12.5%	4.3%	1.5%	4.71	4.07	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	34	200	883	149	110	13	59%	3.5	16.8%	12.5%	4.3%	1.5%	4.71	4.07	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Peoria Chiefs · 19 IPFIP 2.87 → 3.85 (+0.99)K% 30.0% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.770	23.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.33%	—	×1.150	15.33%
HR / BF /BF	1.11%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.39%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.87 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 17 IPFIP 3.16 → 4.11 (+0.95)K% 32.4% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.39%	—	×0.810	26.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.86%	—	×1.100	10.85%
HR / BF /BF	2.82%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.38%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.16 → 4.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Peoria Chiefs · 98 IPFIP 4.19 → 5.39 (+1.20)K% 19.4% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.43%	—	×0.770	14.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.04%	—	×1.150	12.69%
HR / BF /BF	2.43%	÷0.857	×1.250	3.54%

Result: FIP 4.19 → 5.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 APalm Beach Cardinals · 109 IPFIP 2.29 → 3.06 (+0.77)K% 24.5% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.51%	—	×0.740	18.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.98%	—	×1.180	11.77%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.036	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 2.29 → 3.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 APalm Beach Cardinals · 74 IPFIP 2.81 → 3.58 (+0.78)K% 21.3% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.32%	—	×0.740	15.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.31%	—	×1.180	10.98%
HR / BF /BF	0.60%	÷1.010	×1.300	0.77%

Result: FIP 2.81 → 3.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 APalm Beach Cardinals · 35 IPFIP 4.35 → 5.27 (+0.91)K% 12.9% → 9.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.90%	—	×0.740	9.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.90%	—	×1.180	15.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.29%	÷0.880	×1.300	1.91%

Result: FIP 4.35 → 5.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Cardinals · 29 IPFIP 1.99 → 3.10 (+1.11)K% 28.8% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.81%	—	×0.680	19.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.78%	—	×1.250	8.47%
HR / BF /BF	0.85%	÷1.127	×1.400	1.05%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 125).

Result: FIP 1.99 → 3.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Cardinals · 45 IPFIP 2.82 → 4.00 (+1.18)K% 25.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.680	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.24%	—	×1.250	15.31%
HR / BF /BF	0.51%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.71%

Result: FIP 2.82 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
José Davila (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.76	20.4%	9.4%	285	-0.29	—	—	—
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	86
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	86
Willis Roberts R 2001 · 4.29 FIP	26	SW	4.29	16.0%	9.1%	2.5%	.296	4.18	14.9%	5.7%	126	-0.11	3.73	258	82
Kyle Haynes R 2015 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	14.3%	10.3%	1.6%	.302	4.58	15.7%	5.8%	124	+0.50	4.08	240	82
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	4.95	18.3%	5.2%	131	-0.32	4.34	382	81
D.J. Houlton R 2005 · 4.85 FIP	25	SP-	4.85	15.6%	8.5%	3.6%	.297	4.74	18.6%	12.4%	28	-0.11	4.74	157	81
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	81
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	80
Bubba Derby R 2018 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	16.3%	9.7%	1.7%	.322	5.46	18.1%	8.2%	163	+1.57	3.68	550	80
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	80
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	79
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	79
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	79
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	78
Thomas Ponticelli R 2021 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	17.2%	9.7%	3.0%	.264	5.25	15.1%	3.8%	163	+0.75	2.59	367	78
Houston Roth R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP-	4.44	19.3%	11.2%	2.8%	.306	5.01	21.1%	8.6%	168	+0.57	3.79	406	78
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	78
José Ureña R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	24	SP-	4.27	16.3%	7.8%	2.8%	.279	4.40	16.9%	10.0%	428	+0.13	3.86	1,251	77
Josh DeGraaf R 2017 · 3.90 FIP	24	SW	3.90	15.5%	7.7%	2.1%	.295	4.52	17.2%	10.1%	121	+0.62	3.90	320	77
Zach Miner R 2006 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	14.8%	7.8%	2.8%	.300	4.24	13.8%	4.6%	264	-0.11	3.55	386	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	92	20.1%	11.4%	1.17	4.88
Charlie Puleo ('81-'89, 1 WAR*)	3.2	90	18.5%*	11.5%*	1.22*	4.73*
Gerry Arrigo ('61-'70, 1 WAR*)	3.1	103	20.0%*	11.6%*	1.17*	4.98*
Mickey Mahler ('77-'86, 0 WAR*)	2.0	81	20.4%*	10.3%*	1.20*	4.87*
Todd Wellemeyer ('10)	3.1	77	16.9%	11.2%	1.26	4.83
Jeff Juden ('99)	2.7	107	18.8%	10.5%	1.23	4.81
Steven Brault ('22)	1.8	59	18.8%	11.3%	0.97	4.73