José Davila
P
Peoria Chiefs
+0.4
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 177 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.3 · 2029
ERA4.84
FIP4.84
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.1%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%8.1%
IP99
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2029
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 15 | 9 | 54 | 239 | 54 | 34 | 1 | 17.0% | 15.3% | 0.7% | 4.86 | 4.00 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 15 | 13 | 64 | 273 | 54 | 28 | 3 | 13.9% | 12.3% | 1.5% | 3.22 | 4.33 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 20 | 10 | 74 | 333 | 71 | 31 | 2 | 15.8% | 11.0% | 0.8% | 5.69 | 3.58 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 22 | 21 | 109 | 461 | 113 | 46 | 0 | 18.1% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 3.54 | 3.06 | +2.8 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 24 | 22 | 98 | 453 | 88 | 50 | 11 | 15.0% | 12.7% | 3.7% | 6.06 | 5.46 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 99 | 418 | 80 | 46 | 12 | 19.1% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.84 | 4.84 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 118 | 496 | 100 | 50 | 14 | 20.2% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 4.62 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | STL | 24 | 24 | 131 | 553 | 115 | 53 | 16 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.55 | 4.49 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | STL | 25 | 25 | 138 | 583 | 123 | 55 | 17 | 21.1% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.45 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | STL | 26 | 26 | 141 | 595 | 126 | 56 | 17 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.46 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | STL | 26 | 26 | 141 | 595 | 126 | 56 | 17 | 21.1% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.49 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | STL | 25 | 25 | 138 | 581 | 122 | 55 | 17 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.53 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | STL | 24 | 24 | 134 | 564 | 117 | 54 | 17 | 20.8% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.59 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | STL | 23 | 23 | 129 | 544 | 112 | 53 | 17 | 20.5% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 124 | 522 | 106 | 52 | 17 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.75 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 118 | 499 | 100 | 50 | 16 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.79 | 4.85 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | STL | 20 | 20 | 112 | 474 | 93 | 49 | 16 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 4.96 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | STL | 19 | 19 | 106 | 446 | 86 | 47 | 15 | 19.2% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 5.01 | 5.08 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 99 | 417 | 78 | 45 | 15 | 18.8% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 5.13 | 5.22 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 96 | 75 | 400 | 1759 | 282 | 219 | 25 | 16.1% | 12.4% | 1.4% | 4.68 | 4.10 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 38 | 200 | 880 | 141 | 110 | 13 | 16.1% | 12.4% | 1.4% | 4.68 | 4.10 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| José Davila (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.84 | 19.1% | 11.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.52 | 20.8% | 11.1% | 386 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 94 |
| Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .323 | 3.96 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 65 | -0.49 | 2.91 | 175 | 93 |
| Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 92 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.72 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .269 | 4.89 | 17.4% | 3.3% | 197 | +0.17 | 4.28 | 448 | 92 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 92 |
| Angel Ventura R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 17.9% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .285 | 4.64 | 14.8% | 4.8% | 153 | +0.30 | 3.44 | 393 | 92 |
| Jamison Hill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 18.4% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.97 | 16.1% | 3.0% | 202 | +0.17 | 4.68 | 326 | 92 |
| Derek True R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.91 | 18.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .333 | 4.96 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 60 | +0.05 | 4.91 | 157 | 92 |
| Jake Christianson R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.72 | 16.4% | 6.1% | 105 | +0.73 | 3.99 | 188 | 91 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 13.1% | 293 | -0.59 | 1.92 | 778 | 91 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.17 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.02 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 296 | -0.15 | 3.77 | 420 | 91 |
| Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.02 | 10.6% | 4.0% | 101 | -0.21 | 4.02 | 199 | 91 |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .263 | 4.85 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.23 | 3.77 | 350 | 91 |
| Daniel Blair R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.39 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.30 | 4.09 | 171 | 90 |
| Joey Mancini R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .354 | 4.39 | 15.8% | 5.6% | 221 | +0.21 | 3.65 | 316 | 90 |
| Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .329 | 3.95 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 118 | -0.35 | 2.58 | 199 | 90 |
| Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.78 | 20.3% | 12.6% | 3.3% | .266 | 5.31 | 14.0% | 1.0% | 106 | +0.53 | 3.85 | 291 | 90 |
| Logan Martin R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.9% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .278 | 4.06 | 15.9% | 4.9% | 91 | +0.11 | 3.95 | 193 | 90 |
| Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.29 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.1% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 199 | 90 |
| Logan Evans R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.8% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .257 | 4.13 | 18.1% | 10.1% | 125 | -0.08 | 4.13 | 232 | 90 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$11M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.1 | $11M | +$9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.9 | $5M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.8 | $4M | +$0.7M |
| Totals | $11M | $55M | +$44M | ||