José Davila — OGILVIE

José Davila P Peoria Chiefs

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 177 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%15.6%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%3.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CMD3550

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$2M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	9	54	239	54	34	1	60%	3.6	17.0%	15.3%	1.7%	0.7%	4.86	4.00	—
2021	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	9	54	239	54	34	1	60%	3.6	22.6%	14.2%	8.4%	0.4%	4.86	3.23	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	13	64	273	54	28	3	87%	4.3	13.9%	12.3%	1.6%	1.5%	3.22	4.33	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	13	64	273	54	28	3	87%	4.3	19.8%	10.3%	9.5%	1.1%	3.22	3.33	—
2023	20	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	20	10	74	333	71	31	2	50%	3.7	15.8%	11.0%	4.8%	0.8%	5.69	3.58	—
2023	20	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	20	10	74	333	71	31	2	50%	3.7	15.8%	11.0%	4.8%	0.8%	5.69	3.58	—
2023	20	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	20	10	74	333	71	31	2	50%	3.7	21.3%	9.3%	12.0%	0.6%	5.69	2.79	—
2024	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	22	21	109	461	113	46	0	95%	5.0	18.1%	11.8%	6.4%	0.0%	3.54	3.06	—
2024	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	22	21	109	461	113	46	0	95%	5.0	18.1%	11.8%	6.4%	0.0%	3.54	3.06	—
2024	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	22	21	109	461	113	46	0	95%	5.0	24.5%	10.0%	14.5%	0.0%	3.54	2.30	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	22	98	453	88	50	11	92%	4.1	15.0%	12.7%	2.3%	3.5%	6.06	5.39	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	22	98	453	88	50	11	92%	4.1	15.0%	12.7%	2.3%	3.5%	6.06	5.39	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	24	22	98	453	88	50	11	92%	4.1	19.4%	11.0%	8.4%	2.4%	6.06	4.29	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	31	0	40	180	53	22	4	0%	1.3	24.5%	13.4%	11.1%	2.3%	4.99	3.97	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	31	0	40	180	53	22	4	0%	1.3	24.5%	13.4%	11.1%	2.3%	4.99	3.97	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	STL	3	0	3	19	3	3	1	0%	1.1	15.8%	15.8%	0.0%	5.3%	8.10	6.66	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	STL	15	0	19	90	27	12	1	0%	1.3	30.0%	13.3%	16.7%	1.1%	6.98	2.87	—
2026	23	AA RAW	STL	13	0	17	71	23	7	2	0%	1.3	32.4%	9.9%	22.5%	2.8%	2.12	3.16	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	STL	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	15.6%	12.1%	3.5%	2.8%	5.25	5.25	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	46	205	57	25	5	—	—	27.8%	12.2%	15.6%	2.3%	5.02	4.13	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	STL	126	0	132	559	99	61	16	0%	1.1	17.6%	10.9%	6.8%	2.8%	5.01	4.92	-0.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	128	0	134	567	107	57	16	0%	1.0	18.9%	10.1%	8.8%	2.8%	4.81	4.72	-0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	128	0	134	567	111	56	16	0%	1.0	19.6%	10.0%	9.6%	2.8%	4.70	4.64	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	126	0	132	558	110	56	16	0%	1.0	19.7%	10.0%	9.7%	2.9%	4.68	4.67	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	122	0	128	541	106	55	16	0%	1.1	19.5%	10.1%	9.4%	3.0%	4.72	4.75	-0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	117	0	122	517	100	54	16	0%	1.0	19.3%	10.4%	8.9%	3.1%	4.82	4.88	-0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	STL	110	0	115	486	92	52	16	0%	1.0	18.9%	10.7%	8.3%	3.3%	4.96	5.06	-0.7
2027	24	MLB CTX	STL	54	0	57	241	42	26	6	0%	1.1	17.6%	10.9%	6.8%	2.6%	4.90	4.81	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	85	0	89	376	71	38	10	0%	1.0	18.9%	10.1%	8.8%	2.6%	4.70	4.61	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	101	0	106	448	88	45	12	0%	1.0	19.6%	10.0%	9.6%	2.6%	4.59	4.53	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	108	0	113	477	94	48	13	0%	1.0	19.7%	10.0%	9.7%	2.7%	4.57	4.56	-0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	109	0	114	481	94	49	13	0%	1.0	19.5%	10.1%	9.4%	2.8%	4.61	4.64	-0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	106	0	111	469	90	49	14	0%	1.0	19.3%	10.4%	8.9%	2.9%	4.70	4.76	-0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	STL	101	0	106	448	85	48	14	0%	1.0	18.9%	10.7%	8.3%	3.1%	4.83	4.93	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		664	0	697	2942	565	302	82	0%	1.0	19.2%	10.3%	8.9%	2.8%	4.68	4.30	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	162	87	24	0%	1.1	19.2%	10.3%	8.9%	2.8%	4.68	4.30	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		127	75	439	1939	327	243	29	59%	3.5	16.8%	12.5%	4.3%	1.5%	4.71	4.07	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	34	200	883	149	110	13	59%	3.5	16.8%	12.5%	4.3%	1.5%	4.71	4.07	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
José Davila (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	15.6%	12.1%	2.8%	—	4.76	18.7%	8.4%	401	-0.49	—	—	—
Kyle Haynes R 2015 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	14.3%	10.3%	1.6%	.302	4.58	15.7%	5.8%	124	+0.50	4.08	240	86
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	85
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	81
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	81
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	81
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	81
Felipe Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.18 FIP	23	SW	4.18	13.9%	7.8%	2.3%	.288	5.04	16.5%	6.6%	181	+0.86	3.27	339	81
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	80
Félix Paulino R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	13.4%	10.0%	2.8%	.313	5.43	18.0%	7.9%	77	+0.66	3.33	394	80
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	79
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	79
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	79
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	78
Jason Hursh R 2015 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	12.0%	9.1%	1.5%	.363	3.32	16.2%	5.3%	193	-0.76	3.28	338	78
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	78
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	77
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	77
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	77
Connor Johnstone R 2018 · 4.40 FIP	23	SW	4.40	15.7%	7.6%	3.0%	.272	4.51	12.9%	7.9%	166	+0.11	3.78	319	77
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	129	18.6%	10.5%	1.14	4.87
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45