José Davila
P
Peoria Chiefs
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 177 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.7 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 129 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139130vR 121
ERA5.33
FIP5.33
K%15.6%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%3.6%
ROS IP129
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 9 | 54 | 239 | 54 | 34 | 1 | 60% | 3.6 | 17.0% | 15.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 4.86 | 4.00 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 9 | 54 | 239 | 54 | 34 | 1 | 60% | 3.6 | 22.6% | 14.2% | 8.4% | 0.4% | 4.86 | 3.23 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 13 | 64 | 273 | 54 | 28 | 3 | 87% | 4.3 | 13.9% | 12.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.22 | 4.40 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 13 | 64 | 273 | 54 | 28 | 3 | 87% | 4.3 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 1.1% | 3.22 | 3.33 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 20 | 10 | 74 | 333 | 71 | 31 | 2 | 50% | 3.7 | 15.8% | 11.0% | 4.8% | 0.8% | 5.69 | 3.58 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 20 | 10 | 74 | 333 | 71 | 31 | 2 | 50% | 3.7 | 21.3% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 0.6% | 5.69 | 2.79 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 22 | 21 | 109 | 461 | 113 | 46 | 0 | 95% | 5.0 | 18.1% | 11.8% | 6.4% | 0.0% | 3.54 | 3.06 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 22 | 21 | 109 | 461 | 113 | 46 | 0 | 95% | 5.0 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 14.5% | 0.0% | 3.54 | 2.30 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 24 | 22 | 98 | 453 | 88 | 50 | 11 | 92% | 4.1 | 15.0% | 12.7% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 6.06 | 5.78 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 24 | 22 | 98 | 453 | 88 | 50 | 11 | 92% | 4.1 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 6.06 | 4.29 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 16 | 0 | 20 | 97 | 27 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.7% | 13.3% | 10.4% | 1.6% | 8.24 | 3.66 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | STL | 123 | 0 | 129 | 546 | 85 | 65 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.33 | 5.33 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | STL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.33 | 5.33 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | STL | — | — | 149 | 643 | 112 | 77 | 18 | — | — | 17.4% | 12.0% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 5.71 | 5.11 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | STL | — | — | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 15.6% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.33 | 4.95 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | STL | 23 | 23 | 132 | 559 | 99 | 60 | 17 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.6% | 10.8% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 5.08 | 4.99 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | STL | 23 | 23 | 134 | 567 | 107 | 57 | 17 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.88 | 4.79 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 134 | 567 | 111 | 56 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.6% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.71 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 132 | 558 | 110 | 55 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.7% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.73 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 128 | 541 | 106 | 54 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.79 | 4.82 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | STL | 20 | 20 | 122 | 517 | 100 | 53 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.89 | 4.95 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | STL | 19 | 19 | 115 | 486 | 92 | 51 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.9% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 5.03 | 5.13 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 107 | 453 | 84 | 50 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.5% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 3.7% | 5.21 | 5.33 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 42 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.6% | 10.8% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 5.08 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | STL | 15 | 15 | 89 | 376 | 71 | 38 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.88 | 4.79 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 106 | 448 | 88 | 44 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.6% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.71 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | STL | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 94 | 47 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.73 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | STL | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 94 | 48 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.79 | 4.82 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 111 | 469 | 90 | 48 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.89 | 4.95 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 106 | 448 | 85 | 47 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.9% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 5.03 | 5.13 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 100 | 422 | 78 | 46 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.5% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 3.7% | 5.20 | 5.32 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 134 | 134 | 797 | 3366 | 643 | 346 | 107 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.1% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.90 | 4.54 | +8.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 161 | 87 | 27 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.1% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.90 | 4.54 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 112 | 75 | 419 | 1856 | 305 | 231 | 30 | 67% | 3.7 | 16.5% | 12.5% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 4.85 | 4.16 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 36 | 200 | 885 | 146 | 110 | 14 | 67% | 3.7 | 16.5% | 12.5% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 4.85 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| José Davila (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.33 | 15.6% | 12.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.83 | 18.7% | 8.5% | 401 | -0.50 | — | — | — |
| Chase Cohen R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.67 | 15.8% | 13.0% | 2.3% | .317 | 4.66 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 85 | -0.01 | 3.68 | 263 | 84 |
| Logan Evans R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.52 | 17.8% | 10.3% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.20 | 18.1% | 10.1% | 125 | -0.32 | 4.20 | 232 | 83 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 83 |
| Buddy Borden R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.31 | 13.8% | 12.4% | 3.3% | .257 | 4.48 | 14.3% | -1.0% | 115 | -0.83 | 4.04 | 242 | 83 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2028 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.44 | 4.37 | 160 | 82 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.55 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.24 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.31 | 3.72 | 283 | 81 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.25 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .251 | 4.81 | 18.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.56 | 3.93 | 268 | 81 |
| Jacob Meador R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.28 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .301 | 6.83 | 14.7% | -6.6% | 50 | +1.55 | 5.28 | 139 | 81 |
| Cade Winquest R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .299 | 3.91 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 158 | -0.45 | 3.34 | 236 | 81 |
| Derek True R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.76 | 18.5% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .333 | 4.67 | 17.6% | 5.9% | 73 | -0.09 | 4.50 | 170 | 80 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 80 |
| Trenton Toplikar R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 14.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .248 | 5.60 | 16.5% | 6.4% | 123 | +1.30 | 4.30 | 232 | 80 |
| Jacob Turner R 2028 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.34 | 15.9% | 7.8% | 2.9% | .338 | 4.74 | 15.0% | 5.3% | 209 | +0.40 | 4.34 | 340 | 80 |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.91 | 12.7% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .348 | 3.83 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 135 | -1.08 | 3.22 | 218 | 80 |
| Justin Dillon R 2027 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 11.8% | 8.8% | 3.7% | .265 | 4.34 | 15.6% | 9.1% | 124 | -0.89 | 3.63 | 239 | 80 |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.58 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .263 | 4.63 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.05 | 3.57 | 389 | 80 |
| Jacob Cravey R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.13 | 15.7% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .246 | 7.57 | 11.0% | -7.2% | 28 | +2.44 | 5.13 | 204 | 79 |
| Hunter Wood R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 18.5% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .307 | 3.74 | 25.5% | 18.2% | 140 | -0.66 | 2.90 | 483 | 79 |
| Matt Peacock R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.22 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .300 | 4.20 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.96 | 354 | 79 |
| Adrian Chaidez R 2026 · 5.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.66 | 20.1% | 15.0% | 4.3% | .281 | 4.68 | 19.4% | 3.1% | 45 | -0.98 | 4.68 | 144 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 126 | 18.6% | 10.5% | 1.22 | 4.96 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |
| Chad Kuhl ('24) | 8 | 84 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.31 | 4.98 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Aaron Sanchez ('22) | 7 | 93 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 0.98 | 4.32 |