Max Carlson

P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	33	0	69	2.73	1.72	28.9%	7.0%	—	K 22.7% · BB 7.5% · FIP 2.44
2025	23	A+BOS	11	2	35	4.08	2.31	32.5%	4.0%	—	K 25.0% · BB 4.6% · FIP 3.20
2026	24	MIX2 levels	36	2	82	4.37	3.00	28.3%	5.3%	—	K 23.4% · BB 6.1% · FIP 3.92
2027PROJ	25	MLBBOS	43	0	45	4.02	4.02	23.6%	6.3%	0.3
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBBOS	30	0	32	4.03	4.02	23.8%	6.5%	0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBBOS	44	0	46	4.07	4.08	23.7%	6.8%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 90%

CompsNick Merkel (age 25) · Casey Cobb (age 25) · Joshua Loeschorn (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110101vR 93

ERA4.02

FIP4.02

K%23.6%

BB%6.3%

K-BB%17.3%

Proj IP45

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-2.53	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-0.90	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	69	298	86	21	1	0%	2.1	22.7%	7.5%	15.2%	0.6%	2.73	2.44	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	69	298	86	21	1	0%	2.1	22.7%	7.5%	15.2%	0.6%	2.73	2.44	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	69	298	86	21	1	0%	2.1	28.9%	7.0%	21.8%	0.3%	2.73	1.72	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	11	2	35	151	49	6	4	18%	3.2	25.0%	4.6%	20.4%	3.0%	4.08	3.20	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	11	2	35	151	49	6	4	18%	3.2	25.0%	4.6%	20.4%	3.0%	4.08	3.20	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	11	2	35	151	49	6	4	18%	3.2	32.5%	4.0%	28.5%	2.6%	4.08	2.31	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	2	82	339	96	18	10	6%	2.3	23.4%	6.1%	17.3%	3.7%	4.37	3.92	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	2	82	339	96	18	10	6%	2.3	23.4%	6.1%	17.3%	3.7%	4.37	3.92	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	2	82	339	96	18	10	6%	2.3	28.3%	5.3%	23.0%	2.9%	4.37	3.00	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BOS	43	0	45	190	45	12	6	0%	1.0	23.6%	6.3%	17.3%	3.2%	4.02	4.02	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BOS	71	0	74	313	74	20	10	0%	1.0	23.8%	6.5%	17.2%	3.1%	4.03	4.02	+0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	BOS	70	0	73	308	73	21	10	0%	1.0	23.7%	6.8%	16.9%	3.2%	4.07	4.08	+0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	BOS	67	0	71	299	70	21	10	0%	1.1	23.6%	7.1%	16.5%	3.3%	4.14	4.18	+0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	BOS	64	0	68	285	67	21	10	0%	1.1	23.3%	7.4%	16.0%	3.4%	4.25	4.31	+0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	BOS	60	0	64	268	62	21	10	0%	1.1	23.0%	7.7%	15.3%	3.6%	4.40	4.49	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	BOS	30	0	32	135	32	9	4	0%	1.1	23.8%	6.5%	17.2%	3.1%	4.03	4.02	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	BOS	44	0	46	194	46	13	6	0%	1.0	23.7%	6.8%	16.9%	3.2%	4.07	4.08	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	BOS	50	0	53	224	53	16	7	0%	1.1	23.6%	7.1%	16.5%	3.3%	4.14	4.18	+0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	BOS	52	0	55	232	54	17	8	0%	1.1	23.3%	7.4%	16.0%	3.4%	4.25	4.31	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	BOS	52	0	55	232	53	18	8	0%	1.1	23.0%	7.7%	15.3%	3.6%	4.40	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		230	0	242	1022	239	73	34	0%	1.1	23.4%	7.1%	16.3%	3.3%	4.20	3.86	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	198	60	28	0%	1.1	23.4%	7.1%	16.3%	3.3%	4.20	3.86	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		81	4	188	791	187	50	19	5%	2.3	23.6%	6.3%	17.3%	2.4%	3.69	3.20	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	4	200	841	199	53	20	5%	2.3	23.6%	6.3%	17.3%	2.4%	3.69	3.20	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Carlson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.02	23.6%	6.3%	3.2%	—	4.09	23.7%	16.9%	218	+0.07	—	—	—
Nick Merkel R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	22.8%	7.1%	3.5%	.284	3.44	20.7%	10.3%	129	-0.55	3.15	205	88
Casey Cobb R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SU	3.48	21.8%	6.2%	2.6%	.261	5.59	17.2%	8.3%	118	+2.11	3.48	191	88
Joshua Loeschorn R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	23	SU	3.86	24.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.272	4.43	17.1%	8.4%	83	+0.57	3.08	151	85
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	84
Travis Hissong R 2016 · 3.01 FIP	25	SU	3.01	23.6%	4.9%	2.3%	.256	4.17	20.3%	6.8%	50	+1.16	3.01	122	84
Matt Jachec R 2024 · 3.29 FIP	23	SU	3.29	25.8%	6.8%	2.7%	.347	3.69	21.8%	12.8%	50	+0.40	3.29	122	83
Josh Martin R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	25	SU	3.16	24.1%	7.4%	2.1%	.257	2.96	20.7%	13.6%	124	-0.20	2.41	225	82
Danny Hrbek R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	21.3%	7.5%	3.1%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	100	82
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.35	22.4%	13.7%	185	+0.62	3.73	223	82
Joe Navilhon R 2018 · 3.36 FIP	25	SU	3.36	24.1%	5.5%	2.9%	.333	3.13	22.5%	15.1%	110	-0.23	2.25	273	82
Connor Schultz R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	25	SU	3.88	19.7%	5.3%	3.2%	.283	4.02	18.8%	10.4%	156	+0.14	3.53	203	81
Trent Harris R 2024 · 3.45 FIP	25	SU	3.45	26.9%	9.5%	2.6%	.258	3.36	24.7%	16.7%	121	-0.09	3.06	198	81
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	81
Kelly Austin R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	23	SU	4.22	23.9%	5.6%	4.4%	.273	4.62	19.0%	6.8%	100	+0.40	4.22	141	81
Danny Barnes R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	25	SU	3.18	22.9%	7.1%	2.0%	.355	3.38	24.9%	17.6%	182	+0.20	1.75	243	80
Justin Courtney R 2021 · 4.58 FIP	25	SU	4.58	19.0%	5.9%	4.3%	.364	6.21	17.3%	5.0%	68	+1.63	4.58	108	80
Victor Zambrano R 2001 · 3.42 FIP	25	SU	3.42	27.4%	8.5%	2.8%	.246	4.75	16.4%	3.1%	444	+1.33	3.42	706	80
Shay Schanaman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	21.0%	7.6%	3.7%	.292	6.05	16.4%	2.8%	90	+1.71	4.34	148	80
James Farris R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	25	SU	3.77	24.4%	6.6%	3.5%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	170	80
Reinier Roibal R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	26	SU	3.11	19.1%	4.5%	1.9%	.262	4.37	16.9%	9.8%	35	+1.26	3.11	133	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	66	23.5%	7.0%	1.27	4.15
Michael Tonkin ('25)	1.6	55	23.2%	8.1%	1.28	4.23
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
Junichi Tazawa ('18)	2.0	49	22.2%	6.5%	1.12	4.12
Barney Schultz ('55-'65, 2 WAR*)	1.7	58	24.6%*	8.3%*	1.28*	3.93*
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*
Pete Ladd ('79-'86, 0 WAR*)	1.4	72	24.6%*	7.8%*	1.53*	4.42*