Kelly Austin
P
Somerset Patriots
Age 25
RHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144135vR 125
ERA5.56
FIP5.56
K%16.6%
BB%15.7%
K-BB%0.9%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Astros | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0% | — | 0.0% | 66.7% | -66.7% | 0.0% | — | 11.54 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Astros | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0% | — | 0.0% | 66.7% | -66.7% | 0.0% | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 51 | 202 | 65 | 9 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.9% | 5.6% | 18.3% | 4.3% | 1.95 | 4.15 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 51 | 202 | 65 | 9 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 32.2% | 4.5% | 27.7% | 3.0% | 1.95 | 2.61 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 43 | 0 | 43 | 193 | 37 | 28 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.5% | 16.0% | -0.4% | 1.2% | 2.95 | 4.45 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 43 | 0 | 43 | 193 | 37 | 28 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 14.5% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 2.95 | 3.94 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 28 | 0 | 35 | 146 | 39 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 13.3% | 4.1% | 4.08 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | NYY | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 42 | 39 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.6% | 15.7% | 0.9% | 2.7% | 5.56 | 5.56 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | NYY | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.6% | 15.7% | 0.9% | 2.7% | 5.56 | 5.56 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 95 | 397 | 81 | 50 | 12 | — | — | 20.3% | 12.7% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 5.01 | 5.19 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 16.6% | 15.7% | 0.9% | 2.7% | 5.56 | 5.18 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 44 | 38 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 15.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 5.41 | 5.40 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 45 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 14.6% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 5.35 | 5.36 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 15.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 5.41 | 5.40 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 28 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 14.6% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 5.35 | 5.36 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 61 | 0 | 64 | 272 | 49 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 14.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 5.38 | 5.00 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 152 | 124 | 25 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 14.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 5.38 | 5.00 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 107 | 0 | 129 | 541 | 110 | 54 | 17 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 2.87 | 4.37 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 166 | 0 | 200 | 841 | 171 | 84 | 26 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 2.87 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kelly Austin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.56 | 16.6% | 15.7% | 2.7% | — | 5.38 | 17.8% | 3.0% | 118 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Zane Morehouse R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.86 | 19.3% | 15.8% | 2.5% | .321 | 6.20 | 18.6% | -0.4% | 17 | +1.34 | 2.62 | 116 | 90 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.06 | 18.0% | 16.1% | 2.6% | .229 | 4.27 | 25.2% | 11.2% | 142 | -0.79 | 3.89 | 272 | 89 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 88 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.64 | 15.3% | 15.3% | 1.6% | .279 | 4.38 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 167 | -0.26 | 4.02 | 328 | 87 |
| Haden Erbe R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 18.4% | 16.5% | 3.1% | .320 | 5.49 | 17.8% | 0.5% | 40 | +0.14 | 5.17 | 116 | 87 |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.64 | 18.1% | 16.4% | 1.8% | .278 | 4.44 | 18.8% | 5.8% | 90 | -0.20 | 4.16 | 164 | 86 |
| Holt Jones R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.46 | 19.0% | 15.0% | 1.9% | .326 | 4.33 | 22.0% | 5.9% | 87 | -0.13 | 4.13 | 217 | 86 |
| Billy Seidl R 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.87 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.8% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 86 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.59 | 18.2% | 16.2% | 1.8% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.18 | 103 | 85 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 17.6% | 15.9% | 2.6% | .324 | 7.06 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 23 | +1.98 | 4.90 | 103 | 85 |
| Julian Arballo R 2028 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 85 |
| Rob Huber R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.67 | 15.7% | 14.7% | 1.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 117 | 85 |
| Aroni Nina R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 16.8% | 20.5% | 1.3% | .312 | 3.06 | 18.8% | 8.7% | 64 | -1.94 | 2.68 | 115 | 85 |
| CJ Weins R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.65 | 15.5% | 14.9% | 3.6% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 113 | 84 |
| Josh Harlow R 2025 · 5.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.71 | 17.1% | 21.3% | 2.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.52 | 107 | 84 |
| Armando Rivero R 2028 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 84 |
| Danny Reynolds R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.74 | 16.6% | 16.8% | 1.7% | .263 | 3.67 | 16.0% | 4.3% | 88 | -1.07 | 3.29 | 165 | 84 |
| Yordy Cabrera R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.43 | 15.8% | 17.2% | 2.7% | .321 | 4.31 | 13.7% | 2.7% | 140 | -1.12 | 3.48 | 159 | 84 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.45 | 13.6% | 15.3% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 124 | 84 |
| Morgan McSweeney R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.37 | 19.6% | 14.7% | 3.8% | .256 | 3.94 | 15.0% | 5.6% | 61 | -1.43 | 3.94 | 189 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 17.4% | 15.1% | 1.07 | 5.44 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |