Kelly Austin — OGILVIE

Kelly Austin P Somerset Patriots

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 121

ERA5.50

FIP5.50

K%16.6%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%1.4%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	1	0	0	3	0	2	0	0%	—	0.0%	66.7%	-66.7%	0.0%	—	11.54	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	1	0	0	3	0	2	0	0%	—	0.0%	66.7%	-66.7%	0.0%	—	11.54	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	1	0	0	3	0	2	0	0%	—	0.0%	66.7%	-66.7%	0.0%	—	—	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	51	202	65	9	6	0%	1.4	23.9%	5.6%	18.3%	4.4%	1.95	4.22	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	51	202	65	9	6	0%	1.4	23.9%	5.6%	18.3%	4.4%	1.95	4.22	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	51	202	65	9	6	0%	1.4	32.2%	4.5%	27.7%	3.0%	1.95	2.61	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	43	0	43	193	37	28	2	0%	1.0	15.5%	16.0%	-0.4%	1.2%	2.95	4.47	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	43	0	43	193	37	28	2	0%	1.0	15.5%	16.0%	-0.4%	1.2%	2.95	4.47	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	43	0	43	193	37	28	2	0%	1.0	19.2%	14.5%	4.7%	1.0%	2.95	3.94	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	43	1	57	233	62	20	8	2%	1.3	21.6%	9.4%	12.1%	4.1%	3.61	4.74	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	43	1	57	233	62	20	8	2%	1.3	21.6%	9.4%	12.1%	4.1%	3.61	4.74	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	NYY	43	1	57	233	62	20	8	2%	1.3	26.6%	8.6%	18.0%	3.4%	3.61	3.82	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	NYY	5	0	5	23	4	3	1	0%	1.1	16.6%	15.2%	1.4%	2.7%	5.50	5.50	-0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	63	256	66	23	9	—	—	25.7%	9.2%	16.5%	3.4%	3.77	4.80	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	NYY	57	0	60	251	44	37	7	0%	1.0	17.6%	14.6%	3.1%	2.8%	5.37	5.35	-0.5
2028	27	MLB MLE	NYY	56	0	59	247	45	35	7	0%	1.0	18.1%	14.2%	3.8%	2.8%	5.31	5.31	-0.5
2027	26	MLB CTX	NYY	25	0	26	110	19	16	3	0%	1.0	17.6%	14.6%	3.1%	2.8%	5.37	5.35	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	NYY	35	0	37	156	28	22	4	0%	1.1	18.1%	14.2%	3.8%	2.8%	5.31	5.31	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	268	48	38	8	0%	1.1	17.9%	14.4%	3.5%	2.8%	5.34	4.95	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	152	120	25	0%	1.1	17.9%	14.4%	3.5%	2.8%	5.34	4.95	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		122	1	151	628	129	64	21	1%	1.2	20.5%	10.2%	10.3%	3.3%	2.87	4.49	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		162	1	200	834	171	85	28	1%	1.2	20.5%	10.2%	10.3%	3.3%	2.87	4.49	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kelly Austin (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.50	16.6%	15.2%	2.7%	—	5.33	17.8%	3.4%	118	-0.17	—	—	—
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	88
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	88
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	87
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	87
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	87
José A. Váldez R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	25	SU	4.55	15.3%	15.3%	1.5%	.279	4.32	22.3%	9.9%	167	-0.23	4.02	328	86
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	86
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	86
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	86
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	85
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	85
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	85
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	85
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	85
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	85
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	84
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	84
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	84
Michael Mertz R 2018 · 5.18 FIP	24	SU	5.18	16.1%	13.9%	3.0%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	133	83
Danny Reynolds R 2016 · 4.72 FIP	25	SU	4.72	16.6%	16.8%	1.6%	.263	3.71	16.0%	4.3%	88	-1.01	3.29	165	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	17.4%	14.7%	1.08	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77