Kelly Austin

P Somerset Patriots

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	36	0	51	1.95	2.61	32.2%	4.5%	—	K 23.9% · BB 5.6% · FIP 4.22
2025	24	AANYY	43	0	43	2.95	3.94	19.2%	14.5%	—	K 15.5% · BB 16.0% · FIP 4.47
2026	25	AANYY	43	1	57	3.61	3.80	26.6%	8.6%	—	K 21.6% · BB 9.4% · FIP 4.74
2027PROJ	26	MLBNYY	1	0	1	5.29	5.29	19.0%	13.5%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBNYY	18	0	19	5.22	5.23	19.4%	13.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBNYY	25	0	26	5.21	5.25	19.6%	13.0%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control30Command30

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsArmando Rivero (age 27) · Nolan Riggs (age 25) · Justin Courtney (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 117

ERA5.29

FIP5.29

K%19.0%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%5.5%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	1	0	0	3	0	2	0	0%	—	0.0%	66.7%	-66.7%	0.0%	—	11.54	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	1	0	0	3	0	2	0	0%	—	0.0%	66.7%	-66.7%	0.0%	—	—	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	51	202	65	9	6	0%	1.4	23.9%	5.6%	18.3%	4.4%	1.95	4.22	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	51	202	65	9	6	0%	1.4	23.9%	5.6%	18.3%	4.4%	1.95	4.22	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	51	202	65	9	6	0%	1.4	32.2%	4.5%	27.7%	3.0%	1.95	2.61	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	43	0	43	193	37	28	2	0%	1.0	15.5%	16.0%	-0.4%	1.2%	2.95	4.47	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	43	0	43	193	37	28	2	0%	1.0	15.5%	16.0%	-0.4%	1.2%	2.95	4.47	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	43	0	43	193	37	28	2	0%	1.0	19.2%	14.5%	4.7%	1.0%	2.95	3.94	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	43	1	57	233	62	20	8	2%	1.3	21.6%	9.4%	12.1%	4.1%	3.61	4.74	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	43	1	57	233	62	20	8	2%	1.3	21.6%	9.4%	12.1%	4.1%	3.61	4.74	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	43	1	57	233	62	20	8	2%	1.3	26.6%	8.6%	18.0%	3.4%	3.61	3.80	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	NYY	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	19.0%	13.5%	5.5%	3.1%	5.29	5.29	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	NYY	49	0	52	218	42	29	7	0%	1.1	19.4%	13.2%	6.2%	3.1%	5.22	5.23	-0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	NYY	42	0	44	185	36	24	6	0%	1.0	19.6%	13.0%	6.6%	3.2%	5.21	5.25	-0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	NYY	38	0	39	166	32	22	6	0%	1.0	19.5%	13.0%	6.5%	3.4%	5.26	5.33	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	NYY	18	0	19	80	16	11	3	0%	1.1	19.4%	13.2%	6.2%	3.1%	5.22	5.23	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	NYY	25	0	26	110	21	14	4	0%	1.0	19.6%	13.0%	6.6%	3.2%	5.21	5.25	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	NYY	27	0	28	118	23	15	4	0%	1.0	19.5%	13.0%	6.5%	3.4%	5.26	5.33	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		70	0	73	310	60	40	10	0%	1.0	19.5%	13.1%	6.5%	3.3%	5.23	4.89	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	164	109	27	0%	1.1	19.5%	13.1%	6.5%	3.3%	5.23	4.89	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		122	1	151	628	129	64	21	1%	1.2	20.5%	10.2%	10.3%	3.3%	2.87	4.49	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		162	1	200	834	171	85	28	1%	1.2	20.5%	10.2%	10.3%	3.3%	2.87	4.49	-1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASomerset Patriots · 57 IPFIP 3.82 → 4.74 (+0.91)K% 26.6% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.61%	—	×0.810	21.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.58%	—	×1.100	9.44%
HR / BF /BF	3.43%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.12%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.82 → 4.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASomerset Patriots · 43 IPFIP 3.89 → 4.47 (+0.59)K% 19.2% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.17%	—	×0.810	15.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.51%	—	×1.100	15.96%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷1.030	×1.200	1.21%

Result: FIP 3.89 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 41 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.22 (+1.12)K% 31.1% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.10%	—	×0.770	23.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.88%	—	×1.150	5.61%
HR / BF /BF	3.66%	÷1.032	×1.250	4.43%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 10 IPFIP 0.32 → 1.19 (+0.87)K% 36.8% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.84%	—	×0.740	27.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.63%	—	×1.180	3.11%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.118	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 0.32 → 1.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kelly Austin (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.29	19.0%	13.5%	3.1%	—	5.27	19.5%	6.4%	135	-0.02	—	—	—
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	88
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	88
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	87
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	87
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	86
Dusty Isaacs R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	26	SU	5.26	19.3%	14.1%	3.7%	.287	3.16	26.8%	20.6%	26	-2.10	3.16	253	86
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	85
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	85
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	85
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	85
Esmerling Vasquez R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	26	SU	4.37	22.9%	14.6%	2.5%	.278	4.23	12.5%	1.5%	62	-0.14	3.70	204	85
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	84
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	84
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	84
D.J. Carrasco R 2003 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	16.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.291	4.66	10.5%	1.4%	150	+0.39	3.23	490	84
Morgan McSweeney R 2023 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.1%	12.6%	3.7%	.256	3.56	16.9%	9.7%	85	-1.57	3.20	213	84
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	83
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	83
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	51	19.3%	13.2%	1.23	5.25
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*