German Fajardo — OGILVIE

German Fajardo P Inland Empire 66ers

Age 25 RHP 5'11" / 180 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 45 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%19.8%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%6.0%

ROS IP46

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	4	0	3	12	5	2	0	0%	0.8	41.7%	16.7%	25.0%	0.0%	3.00	1.69	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	4	0	3	12	5	2	0	0%	0.8	41.7%	16.7%	25.0%	0.0%	3.00	1.69	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	4	0	3	12	5	2	0	0%	0.8	41.7%	16.7%	25.0%	0.0%	3.00	1.77	—
2024	23	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	35	0	65	317	73	41	3	0%	1.9	17.0%	15.3%	1.8%	1.4%	5.10	4.35	—
2024	23	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	35	0	65	317	73	41	3	0%	1.9	17.0%	15.3%	1.8%	1.4%	5.10	4.35	—
2024	23	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	35	0	65	317	73	41	3	0%	1.9	23.0%	12.9%	10.1%	0.9%	5.10	3.34	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	8	27	7	3	0	0%	1.5	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.32	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	8	27	7	3	0	0%	1.5	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.32	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	8	27	7	3	0	0%	1.5	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.45	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	13	0	20	94	27	15	3	0%	1.5	21.3%	18.8%	2.4%	4.1%	5.03	5.97	—
YTD	25	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	13	0	20	94	27	15	3	0%	1.5	21.3%	18.8%	2.4%	4.1%	5.03	5.97	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A RAW	SEA	13	0	20	94	27	15	3	0%	1.5	28.7%	16.0%	12.8%	3.2%	5.03	4.45	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SEA	56	0	59	248	51	33	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	13.4%	7.2%	2.9%	5.03	5.02	-0.3
2028	27	MLB MLE	SEA	55	0	58	244	51	32	7	0%	1.1	20.7%	13.1%	7.6%	2.9%	4.99	5.00	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	SEA	24	0	25	106	22	14	3	0%	1.0	20.5%	13.4%	7.2%	2.9%	5.03	5.02	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	SEA	34	0	36	152	32	20	4	0%	1.1	20.7%	13.1%	7.6%	2.9%	4.99	5.00	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	61	260	54	34	8	0%	1.0	20.7%	13.2%	7.5%	2.9%	5.01	4.63	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	111	26	0%	1.1	20.7%	13.2%	7.5%	2.9%	5.01	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		57	0	96	450	86	71	8	0%	1.7	19.1%	15.8%	3.3%	1.8%	4.61	4.49	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	0	200	941	180	149	17	0%	1.7	19.1%	15.8%	3.3%	1.8%	4.61	4.49	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
German Fajardo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	19.8%	13.9%	2.9%	—	5.01	20.6%	7.4%	117	-0.12	—	—	—
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	92
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	92
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	91
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	90
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	90
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	90
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	89
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	88
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	88
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	88
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	88
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	87
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	87
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	86
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	86
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	86
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	86
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	86
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	86
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	20.4%	13.4%	1.12	5.04
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78