Drew Thorpe — OGILVIE

Drew Thorpe P Charlotte Knights

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.7 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 96 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.11

FIP5.33

K%16.2%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%4.2%

ROS IP96

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD2525

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.0

Whiff%

p4023.9%

p1013.2%

xwOBA vs

p290.336

CH+4.0 (36%)

CT (15%)

SL-2.7 (17%)

FB-3.4 (32%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	139	536	182	38	13	100%	6.1	26.5%	8.1%	18.4%	3.0%	2.52	3.52	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	139	536	182	38	13	100%	6.1	26.5%	8.1%	18.4%	3.0%	2.52	3.52	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	139	536	182	38	13	100%	6.1	34.0%	7.1%	26.9%	2.4%	2.52	2.52	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	104	414	81	38	11	100%	5.2	17.0%	9.6%	7.4%	2.8%	3.11	4.43	+0.6
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	104	414	81	38	11	100%	5.2	17.0%	9.6%	7.4%	2.8%	3.11	4.43	+0.6
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	104	414	81	38	11	100%	5.2	19.6%	9.2%	10.4%	2.7%	3.11	4.01	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	9	44	190	25	21	8	100%	4.9	13.2%	11.1%	2.1%	4.2%	5.48	5.74	-0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	9	9	37	141	35	9	2	100%	4.1	19.0%	3.8%	15.3%	1.1%	2.70	2.60	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	9	9	37	141	35	9	2	100%	4.1	19.0%	3.8%	15.3%	1.1%	2.70	2.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	ROK RAW	CWS	1	1	2	7	3	0	0	100%	2.0	42.9%	0.0%	42.9%	0.0%	0.00	-0.52	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	CWS	1	1	2	10	2	2	1	100%	2.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	10.0%	13.50	9.43	—
2026	25	AA RAW	CWS	2	2	8	28	8	3	0	100%	4.0	28.6%	10.7%	17.9%	0.0%	1.12	2.04	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	CWS	5	5	25	96	22	4	1	100%	4.9	22.9%	4.2%	18.8%	1.0%	2.55	2.26	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	96	406	70	47	13	100%	6.0	17.4%	11.5%	5.8%	3.1%	5.10	5.17	-0.3
2028	27	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	95	400	71	45	12	100%	5.9	17.7%	11.3%	6.4%	3.1%	5.09	5.14	-0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	CWS	15	15	92	388	69	44	12	100%	6.1	17.8%	11.3%	6.5%	3.2%	5.12	5.18	-0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	CWS	15	15	88	371	64	42	12	100%	5.9	17.3%	11.4%	5.9%	3.4%	5.22	5.31	-0.4
2031	30	MLB MLE	CWS	14	14	82	348	58	41	12	100%	5.9	16.6%	11.7%	4.9%	3.6%	5.40	5.52	-0.6
2027	26	MLB CTX	CWS	11	11	65	274	48	32	8	100%	5.9	17.4%	11.5%	5.8%	3.1%	5.10	5.17	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	CWS	12	12	74	312	55	35	10	100%	6.2	17.7%	11.3%	6.4%	3.1%	5.09	5.14	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	78	329	59	37	11	100%	6.0	17.8%	11.3%	6.5%	3.2%	5.12	5.18	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	77	325	56	37	11	100%	5.9	17.3%	11.4%	5.9%	3.4%	5.22	5.31	-0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	CWS	12	12	74	312	52	37	11	100%	6.2	16.6%	11.7%	4.9%	3.6%	5.40	5.52	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		70	70	412	1743	295	199	59	100%	5.9	16.9%	11.4%	5.5%	3.4%	5.22	4.97	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	846	143	97	29	100%	5.9	16.9%	11.4%	5.5%	3.4%	5.22	4.97	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		52	52	280	1091	239	88	29	100%	5.4	21.9%	8.1%	13.8%	2.7%	2.76	3.75	-2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	37	200	778	171	63	21	100%	5.4	21.9%	8.1%	13.8%	2.7%	2.76	3.75	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew Thorpe (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	16.2%	12.0%	3.1%	—	5.16	17.6%	6.2%	283	-0.17	—	—	—
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	83
Hector Velázquez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	26	SP	4.31	15.0%	8.7%	2.5%	.297	3.35	18.1%	12.8%	343	-0.96	2.75	536	81
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	81
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	80
Tyler Pill R 2015 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP	4.87	12.2%	9.6%	2.9%	.311	3.95	14.6%	8.1%	342	-0.92	3.65	460	80
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	80
Drew Rucinski R 2015 · 5.52 FIP	26	SP	5.52	15.0%	9.1%	4.6%	.336	3.58	16.8%	10.9%	278	-1.94	2.69	409	79
Davis Daniel R 2022 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP	4.67	17.1%	7.9%	3.7%	.261	4.32	18.4%	11.0%	282	-0.35	3.04	593	78
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	78
Anthony Ranaudo R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	15.4%	9.6%	2.5%	.304	5.10	15.5%	9.4%	141	+0.68	4.42	275	78
Ross Stripling R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP	4.32	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.281	3.42	23.1%	18.2%	313	-0.90	3.05	930	78
Jack Noble R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	16.5%	13.1%	1.9%	.258	6.03	20.3%	8.2%	58	+1.61	4.42	125	77
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.6%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.49	15.4%	8.2%	268	-0.31	4.07	563	77
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	76
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	76
Allen Webster R 2015 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP	5.05	14.0%	9.1%	3.6%	.356	5.78	14.9%	6.8%	58	+0.73	4.56	177	76
Johendí Jiminian R 2018 · 5.25 FIP	25	SP	5.25	14.0%	11.4%	3.5%	.282	4.41	13.9%	4.4%	94	-0.84	4.01	419	76
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	76
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	17.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.30	20.4%	9.9%	135	+0.86	1.49	373	76
Kyle Haynes R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	25	SP	4.58	15.7%	9.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	240	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	90	17.2%	11.6%	1.25	5.17
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Chi Chi González ('22)	1.3	64	13.3%	9.0%	1.41	5.44