Drew Thorpe
P
Birmingham Barons
+0.0
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 25
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
AA
peak 0.9 · 2028
ERA4.99
FIP4.67
xFIP5.81
SIERA5.85
K%20.1%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%10.6%
IP113
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2028
STUF4545
CTRL3535
CMD2525
K†4045
FB Velo
p1091.0
Whiff%
p4023.9%
K%
p1013.2%
xwOBA vs
p290.336
CH+4.0 (36%)
CT (15%)
SL-2.7 (17%)
FB-3.4 (32%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 23 | 23 | 139 | 536 | 182 | 38 | 13 | 26.5% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 2.52 | 3.52 | +2.8 |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 20 | 20 | 104 | 414 | 81 | 38 | 11 | 17.0% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 3.11 | 4.41 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 24 | 17 | 4 | 16.9% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 5.45 | 5.25 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 91 | 58 | 16 | 17.9% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 5.21 | 5.11 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 123 | 520 | 95 | 58 | 16 | 18.2% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 5.09 | 5.05 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 96 | 58 | 16 | 18.3% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 5.04 | 5.04 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 121 | 509 | 91 | 56 | 16 | 18.0% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 5.06 | 5.09 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 117 | 494 | 86 | 55 | 16 | 17.4% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 5.13 | 5.18 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 113 | 477 | 80 | 54 | 16 | 16.8% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 5.23 | 5.29 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 108 | 458 | 74 | 52 | 15 | 16.2% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 5.33 | 5.40 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 104 | 437 | 68 | 51 | 15 | 15.5% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 5.45 | 5.53 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 62 | 49 | 15 | 14.8% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 5.58 | 5.67 | -0.4 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 17 | 17 | 93 | 391 | 55 | 47 | 14 | 14.1% | 12.1% | 3.7% | 5.73 | 5.82 | -0.6 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 49 | 45 | 14 | 13.3% | 12.3% | 3.8% | 5.88 | 5.99 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 43 | 43 | 244 | 950 | 212 | 83 | 27 | 22.3% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 2.77 | 3.91 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 780 | 174 | 68 | 22 | 22.3% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 2.77 | 3.91 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drew Thorpe (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.25 | 16.9% | 11.9% | 3.1% | — | 5.07 | 18.1% | 6.9% | 367 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.48 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.53 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -0.95 | 1.94 | 131 | 82 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.27 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .309 | 4.63 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.36 | 4.27 | 328 | 81 |
| Carlos Alvarado R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.87 | 16.3% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .342 | 4.09 | 24.3% | 14.8% | 78 | -0.78 | 2.67 | 102 | 81 |
| Tyler Burch R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.96 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.55 | 119 | 81 |
| Carlos Ramirez R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.25 | 18.9% | 14.5% | 1.7% | .291 | 3.11 | 23.5% | 14.5% | 103 | -1.14 | 2.63 | 177 | 81 |
| Paul Clemens R 2028 · 5.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.33 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.0% | .310 | 4.55 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.78 | 4.49 | 247 | 81 |
| David Holman R 2028 · 5.48 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.48 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.8% | .324 | 5.48 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.00 | 5.37 | 129 | 80 |
| Josh Hejka R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.67 | 16.7% | 10.8% | 2.9% | .363 | 3.93 | 15.8% | 8.7% | 77 | -0.74 | 2.91 | 166 | 79 |
| El'Hajj Muhammad R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.59 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .285 | 5.04 | 7.1% | -2.5% | 11 | +0.45 | 4.59 | 113 | 79 |
| Matt Eckelman R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.44 | 17.8% | 12.3% | 2.3% | .299 | 5.14 | 14.6% | 5.6% | 128 | +0.70 | 4.06 | 386 | 79 |
| Will Latcham R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.42 | 18.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 134 | 79 |
| Luis De La O R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.37 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .370 | 3.72 | 15.3% | 10.8% | 81 | -0.65 | 3.22 | 145 | 78 |
| Jake Bray R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.34 | 15.4% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .294 | 5.62 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 61 | +0.28 | 2.60 | 198 | 78 |
| Zach Barnes R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.02 | 15.3% | 11.1% | 3.3% | .350 | 5.75 | 13.3% | -10.1% | 14 | +0.73 | 4.96 | 145 | 78 |
| Nick Richmond R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.14 | 17.6% | 10.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.58 | 15.9% | 2.4% | 60 | +0.44 | 3.11 | 133 | 78 |
| Isrrael De La Cruz R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.36 | 16.7% | 12.5% | 2.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 100 | 78 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.51 | 15.1% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 145 | 78 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.69 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 4.63 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.06 | 4.58 | 151 | 78 |
| Manny Barreda R 2027 · 5.08 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.08 | 21.2% | 14.7% | 3.5% | .286 | 3.67 | 19.6% | 9.5% | 186 | -1.41 | 3.25 | 376 | 78 |
| Billy Seidl R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.3% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.