Drew Thorpe
P
Birmingham Barons
Age 25
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
AA
peak 0.7 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 96 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 116
ERA5.14
FIP5.37
K%16.2%
BB%12.4%
K-BB%3.9%
ROS IP96
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.0
Whiff%
p4023.9%
K%
p1013.2%
xwOBA vs
p290.336
CH+4.0 (36%)
CT (15%)
SL-2.7 (17%)
FB-3.4 (32%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 139 | 536 | 182 | 38 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.5% | 8.1% | 18.4% | 2.9% | 2.52 | 3.50 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 139 | 536 | 182 | 38 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 34.0% | 7.1% | 26.9% | 2.4% | 2.52 | 2.52 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 104 | 414 | 81 | 38 | 11 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.0% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 3.11 | 4.45 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 104 | 414 | 81 | 38 | 11 | 100% | 5.2 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 3.11 | 4.01 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 65 | 273 | 44 | 34 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.2% | 12.4% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 5.14 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 96 | 406 | 70 | 48 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.4% | 11.9% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 5.14 | 5.21 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 95 | 400 | 71 | 47 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.7% | 11.6% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 5.13 | 5.17 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 15 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 69 | 45 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 5.16 | 5.21 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 34 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.4% | 11.9% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 5.14 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 47 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 17.7% | 11.6% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 5.13 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 53 | 35 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 5.16 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 39 | 224 | 950 | 159 | 110 | 32 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.7% | 11.5% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 5.21 | 4.99 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 847 | 142 | 98 | 29 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.7% | 11.5% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 5.21 | 4.99 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 43 | 43 | 244 | 950 | 212 | 83 | 28 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.3% | 8.8% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 2.77 | 3.92 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 780 | 174 | 68 | 23 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.3% | 8.8% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 2.77 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drew Thorpe (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.37 | 16.2% | 12.4% | 3.1% | — | 5.20 | 17.6% | 5.9% | 283 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 80 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 79 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.23 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .297 | 3.33 | 18.1% | 12.8% | 343 | -0.90 | 2.82 | 536 | 79 |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.61 | 13.9% | 15.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 3.15 | 25.1% | 15.5% | 106 | -2.46 | 2.74 | 178 | 78 |
| Ross Stripling R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.26 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 2.9% | .281 | 3.58 | 23.1% | 18.2% | 313 | -0.68 | 3.05 | 930 | 77 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 76 |
| Drew Rucinski R 2027 · 5.57 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.57 | 15.0% | 9.1% | 4.7% | .336 | 3.72 | 16.8% | 10.9% | 278 | -1.85 | 2.73 | 409 | 74 |
| Tyler Pill R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.74 | 12.2% | 9.6% | 2.6% | .311 | 3.86 | 14.6% | 8.1% | 342 | -0.88 | 3.57 | 460 | 74 |
| Evan Yates R 2024 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.51 | 16.2% | 10.1% | 2.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 169 | 74 |
| Nick Belzer R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.55 | 12.8% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 112 | 74 |
| Davis Daniel R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.72 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 3.8% | .261 | 4.54 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 282 | -0.18 | 3.06 | 584 | 73 |
| Johendí Jiminian R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.42 | 14.0% | 11.4% | 3.8% | .282 | 4.43 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 94 | -0.99 | 3.93 | 419 | 72 |
| Ulises Joaquin R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.65 | 12.8% | 8.4% | 2.9% | .235 | 1.56 | 28.4% | 21.6% | 17 | -3.09 | 1.56 | 192 | 72 |
| Casey Sadler R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.38 | 12.6% | 7.9% | 4.3% | .250 | 3.64 | 15.6% | 9.9% | 144 | -1.74 | 2.22 | 385 | 72 |
| Jaron DeBerry R 2024 · 5.03 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.03 | 21.2% | 13.0% | 3.8% | .249 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 175 | 72 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 240 | 72 |
| Parker Smith R 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.01 | 13.3% | 8.9% | 3.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 132 | 72 |
| Anthony Ranaudo R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.25 | 15.4% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.17 | 15.5% | 9.4% | 141 | +0.92 | 4.25 | 275 | 72 |
| Elliot Morris R 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 12.8% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 102 | 71 |
| Colin Welmon R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.69 | 12.0% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 142 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 87 | 17.4% | 11.8% | 1.21 | 5.14 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Sal Romano ('21) | 3 | 86 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 1.29 | 5.10 |