Brady Hill

P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	ACOL	38	42	4.71	3.74	26.2%	10.7%	—	K 19.4% · BB 12.6% · FIP 4.96
2025	24	ACOL	41	46	6.11	3.25	30.1%	17.1%	—	K 22.3% · BB 20.2% · FIP 4.54
2026	25	MIX2 levels	36	41	4.20	3.86	27.9%	14.5%	—	K 22.1% · BB 16.5% · FIP 5.04
2027PROJ	26	MLBWSH	57	60	5.61	5.61	22.1%	18.9%	-0.7
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBWSH	20	21	5.51	5.52	22.2%	18.0%	-0.2
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBWSH	31	33	5.48	5.52	22.2%	17.5%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control20Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsZane Russell (age 24) · Dennis Sarfate (age 27) · Mitchell Stumpo (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 123

ERA5.61

FIP5.61

K%22.1%

BB%18.9%

K-BB%3.3%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	1	0	1	7	3	2	1	0%	1.0	42.9%	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	18.00	10.94	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	1	0	1	7	3	2	1	0%	1.0	42.9%	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	18.00	16.10	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	38	159	30	16	7	0%	1.1	10.0%	13.0%	-3.0%	6.5%	5.45	7.47	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	38	159	30	16	7	0%	1.1	18.9%	10.1%	8.8%	4.4%	5.45	5.18	—
2024	23	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	38	0	42	187	49	20	5	0%	1.1	19.4%	12.6%	6.8%	3.5%	4.71	4.96	—
2024	23	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	38	0	42	187	49	20	5	0%	1.1	19.4%	12.6%	6.8%	3.5%	4.71	4.96	—
2024	23	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	38	0	42	187	49	20	5	0%	1.1	26.2%	10.7%	15.5%	2.7%	4.71	3.74	—
2025	24	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	41	0	46	216	65	37	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	20.2%	2.1%	1.4%	6.11	4.54	—
2025	24	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	41	0	46	216	65	37	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	20.2%	2.1%	1.4%	6.11	4.54	—
2025	24	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	41	0	46	216	65	37	2	0%	1.1	30.1%	17.1%	13.0%	0.9%	6.11	3.25	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	41	172	48	25	4	0%	1.1	22.1%	16.5%	5.6%	3.1%	4.20	5.04	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	41	172	48	25	4	0%	1.1	22.1%	16.5%	5.6%	3.1%	4.20	5.04	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	41	172	48	25	4	0%	1.1	27.9%	14.5%	13.4%	2.3%	4.20	3.86	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	WSH	57	0	60	253	56	48	7	0%	1.1	22.1%	18.9%	3.3%	2.9%	5.61	5.61	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	WSH	56	0	59	247	55	44	7	0%	1.0	22.2%	18.0%	4.3%	3.0%	5.51	5.52	-0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	WSH	54	0	57	240	53	42	7	0%	1.1	22.2%	17.5%	4.7%	3.1%	5.48	5.52	-0.6
2028	27	MLB CTX	WSH	20	0	21	89	20	16	3	0%	1.1	22.2%	18.0%	4.3%	3.0%	5.51	5.52	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	WSH	31	0	33	139	31	24	4	0%	1.1	22.2%	17.5%	4.7%	3.1%	5.48	5.52	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	0	55	232	52	41	7	0%	1.1	22.2%	17.7%	4.6%	3.1%	5.49	5.14	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	189	149	25	0%	1.1	22.2%	17.7%	4.6%	3.1%	5.49	5.14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		151	0	167	741	141	118	26	0%	1.1	19.1%	16.0%	3.1%	3.5%	5.22	5.45	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		180	0	200	886	169	141	31	0%	1.1	19.1%	16.0%	3.1%	3.5%	5.22	5.45	-2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brady Hill (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.61	22.1%	18.9%	2.9%	—	5.52	22.2%	4.5%	115	-0.09	—	—	—
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	88
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	85
Mitchell Stumpo R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	26	SU	4.55	24.0%	16.8%	2.4%	.225	5.67	21.5%	6.6%	78	+1.12	3.97	158	84
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	83
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	83
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	83
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	82
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	81
Manuel Alvarez R 2022 · 5.02 FIP	26	SU	5.02	20.3%	17.1%	2.7%	.330	6.63	11.8%	-14.8%	12	+1.61	4.58	154	81
Ryan Sublette R 2024 · 5.72 FIP	25	SU	5.72	19.9%	17.5%	3.8%	.214	4.47	18.6%	5.0%	53	-1.25	3.74	203	81
LJ McDonough R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	22.6%	16.7%	2.3%	.385	4.85	20.0%	2.8%	90	+0.31	4.16	127	81
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	80
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	80
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	80
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	80
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	80
Dusty Isaacs R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	26	SU	5.26	19.3%	14.1%	3.7%	.287	3.16	26.8%	20.6%	26	-2.10	3.16	253	80
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	80
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	79
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	22.2%	18.1%	1.16	5.53
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*