Carson Jones — OGILVIE

Carson JonesOF Everett AquaSox

Age 26 L/L 6'2" / 190 lbs A+ K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.179 / .248 / .281

PA1

HR0

K%34

BB%7

BABIP260

ISO98

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	22	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	39	28	4	0	0	1	9	10	2	3	0	143	385	250	635	107	176	26	23	322	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A	Modesto Nuts	—	454	398	100	20	5	13	41	142	6	37	5	251	329	425	753	173	349	31	9	330	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	245	213	34	9	0	6	26	87	5	17	0	160	266	286	553	127	231	36	11	257	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	39	32	3	0	0	1	5	15	2	3	0	94	256	188	444	94	140	38	13	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	454	414	76	13	3	10	27	194	6	37	5	184	244	302	546	118	295	43	6	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	245	221	23	6	0	4	18	123	5	17	0	104	189	186	374	81	197	50	7	172	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	39	32	3	0	0	1	5	15	2	3	0	94	256	188	444	94	125	38	13	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	—	39	28	4	0	0	1	9	10	2	3	0	143	385	250	635	107	176	26	23	322	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	454	414	76	13	3	10	27	194	6	37	5	184	244	302	546	118	306	43	6	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	—	454	398	100	20	5	13	41	142	6	37	5	251	329	425	753	173	349	31	9	330	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	245	221	23	6	0	4	18	123	5	17	0	104	189	186	374	81	200	50	7	172	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	—	245	213	34	9	0	6	26	87	5	17	0	160	266	286	553	127	231	36	11	257	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	39	32	3	0	0	1	5	15	2	3	0	94	256	188	444	94	140	38	13	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	454	418	76	13	3	10	27	194	6	37	5	182	244	299	543	117	295	43	6	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	245	220	23	6	0	4	18	123	5	17	0	105	189	186	375	82	197	50	7	172	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	23	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	454	418	76	13	3	10	27	194	6	37	5	182	244	299	543	117	295	43	6	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	245	220	23	6	0	4	18	123	5	17	0	105	189	186	375	82	197	50	7	172	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SEA	0%	295	268	48	10	1	5	21	100	4	8	1	181	250	285	535	104	262	34	7	244	51	-17	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	26	MLB CTX	SEA	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	179	248	281	529	101	260	0	0	241	51	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SEA	26%	131	119	22	4	1	2	9	44	2	3	1	183	252	288	541	105	263	34	7	246	53	-7	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	SEA	26%	34	32	6	1	0	1	2	11	0	1	0	182	251	284	535	103	261	32	6	244	53	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	34	32	6	1	0	1	2	11	0	1	0	188	235	312	548	125	250	32	6	244	37	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	612	114	19	0	19	38	210	0	19	0	186	234	310	544	124	248	32	6	244	37	-37	+4	+0	-4	+14	-2.3
Career	—	MLE		—	981	888	142	27	4	19	67	414	16	63	6	160	232	264	495	104	265	42	7	223	37	-14	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	95	18	3	13	44	274	11	42	4	162	233	269	502	107	267	42	7	223	37	-37	+2	+0	-4	+14	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carson Jones (OGILVIE)	26	20	40	60	45	180/248/282	103	262	2	3	34%	7%	51	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Parker Chavers 2024 · A	26	40	44→40	53→55	39	201/255/313	113	286	12	18	33%	6%	60	-1.6	199/269/282	83	281	6	21	29%	8%	57	-1.8	194/274/263	69	265	4	26	26%	10%	52	-1.2
✕Jackson Cluff 2024 · AA	27	36→30	41→45	51→60	43	178/259/280	102	271	8	15	35%	8%	55	-2.0	185/267/304	119	276	12	25	35%	9%	63	-1.3	167/253/282	115	245	12	32	35%	9%	51	-1.2
✕Bubba Alleyne 2024 · A	25	35→29	41→40	54→55	38	177/232/272	95	256	8	20	33%	6%	41	-3.0	192/250/282	90	284	8	18	33%	6%	51	-2.3	189/252/277	88	283	8	21	34%	7%	47	-1.4
✕Seth Fortenberry 2010 · AA	26	36→41	43→45	51→50	42	182/255/296	114	271	11	10	35%	8%	57	-1.8	190/253/290	100	306	7	9	37%	7%	53	-2.1	154/208/242	88	288	0	4	44%	6%	22	-0.8
✕Donta' Williams 2024 · AA	25	39→34	40	52→55	46	188/278/281	93	282	7	22	33%	9%	62	-1.4	189/266/267	78	286	5	16	33%	8%	54	-2.0	165/243/216	51	252	1	15	32%	8%	31	-1.1
✕Jordan Brewer 2024 · AA	26	39	42→45	52→55	42	194/265/298	104	279	10	18	33%	7%	61	-1.5	206/270/319	113	269	10	14	26%	6%	67	-1.1	192/257/305	113	242	10	14	24%	6%	57	-1.0
✕Jonny Butler 2024 · AA	25	41→33	44→50	61→55	41	203/266/328	125	283	11	21	32%	7%	68	-1.0	188/263/297	109	256	9	14	28%	8%	59	-1.6	164/247/265	101	220	7	12	27%	9%	44	-1.4
✕Connor Hoover 2023 · AA	27	33→29	46→45	50	44	177/252/305	128	250	14	12	34%	9%	57	-1.8	191/267/316	125	270	14	12	33%	8%	65	-1.2	158/246/282	125	211	17	12	33%	9%	49	-1.2
✕Cam Gibson 2019 · AA	25	40→41	43→45	54→55	43	199/264/310	111	274	10	17	30%	7%	62	-1.4	205/268/307	102	282	8	19	28%	7%	63	-1.3	191/255/287	97	258	7	25	27%	7%	51	-1.7
✕Parker Bates 2023 · A	25	38	44→50	50	42	195/261/317	122	265	12	12	30%	7%	63	-1.3	193/254/274	81	266	6	12	28%	7%	50	-2.3	169/229/213	44	232	3	12	27%	6%	25	-2.2
✕Kevin Merrell 2022 · AAA	26	40→39	39→40	55	40	196/247/282	86	273	7	17	30%	6%	49	-2.4	224/278/352	128	274	16	11	24%	6%	78	-0.3	226/273/357	131	245	21	6	18%	6%	76	-0.1
✕Luke Brown 2024 · A	25	38	42→40	51→50	39	189/254/291	102	278	10	15	34%	6%	55	-2.0	185/251/296	111	283	12	14	37%	7%	55	-2.0	123/197/221	98	179	15	16	40%	8%	15	-1.9
✕Julian Escobedo 2023 · AA	25	39→38	41→40	48→50	41	192/258/288	96	263	8	14	29%	6%	55	-1.9	207/273/319	112	287	10	14	30%	7%	68	-1.0	180/253/308	127	261	11	20	33%	6%	55	-0.4
✕Mark Contreras 2021 · AA	26	36→39	43→50	47→55	38	183/247/296	112	267	11	13	34%	6%	53	-2.1	201/262/336	135	294	15	19	35%	6%	68	-1.0	197/259/326	130	285	15	24	35%	6%	62	-1.1
✕Max Burt 2023 · AAA	26	39→35	45	54→55	37	200/250/318	119	279	13	18	33%	5%	59	-1.6	187/244/290	103	273	11	22	34%	6%	51	-2.3	169/229/255	86	251	9	26	34%	5%	35	-1.6
✕Patrick McColl 2022 · A	25	37	44→45	52→50	43	184/269/297	113	288	12	15	38%	9%	63	-1.4	190/261/277	87	306	7	8	37%	8%	54	-2.0	161/231/222	61	267	4	2	38%	8%	28	-1.6
✕Ryan Aguilar 2022 · AA	27	36→40	42→45	51→50	41	175/259/268	94	291	11	13	41%	9%	53	-2.1	205/294/329	124	325	13	13	37%	10%	79	-0.2	214/314/364	150	322	16	13	35%	11%	91	+0.4
✕Colin Simpson 2022 · A	26	39	43→45	51→40	38	194/247/307	113	293	11	6	36%	6%	55	-2.0	203/259/330	127	287	13	6	32%	7%	65	-1.2	193/252/323	131	264	14	4	31%	7%	59	-0.9
✕Jacob Pearson 2023 · AA	25	38→39	40	50	44	189/254/282	93	253	8	19	28%	7%	53	-2.1	197/260/302	105	290	9	15	33%	7%	59	-1.6	131/193/248	117	214	11	13	43%	7%	18	-0.8
✕Bryan Arias 2023 · AA	26	38	43→45	51→50	41	189/264/294	105	291	11	14	37%	8%	59	-1.6	201/274/303	102	294	9	14	32%	8%	65	-1.2	190/290/284	94	249	9	24	25%	10%	64	-0.3