Luke Brown — OGILVIE

Luke BrownOF Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 27 L/R 5'10" / 195 lbs A+ HR -15%K -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 110 proj PA

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.186 / .263 / .300

PA9

HR0

K%31

BB%8

ISO115

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 43

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER43

scouting grade only

EYE51

scouting grade only

SPEED53

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	22	ROK	FCL Pirates Gold	—	53	45	7	0	1	0	5	11	0	1	0	156	240	200	440	44	189	21	9	199	21	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2022	23	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	101	91	15	5	1	1	5	29	1	3	0	165	214	275	489	110	222	29	5	214	31	-8	+1	—	—	+2	-0.6
2022	23	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	117	94	22	2	0	1	18	28	4	5	1	234	379	287	667	53	318	24	15	319	102	+0	+1	—	—	+3	0.4
2023	24	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	239	204	55	13	2	8	25	63	6	13	5	270	366	471	837	201	348	26	10	366	134	+10	+1	—	—	+5	1.6
2024	25	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	240	206	36	3	1	8	30	75	3	10	1	175	289	316	604	141	228	31	12	279	75	-7	+2	—	—	+5	-0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates Gold	—	53	47	6	0	1	0	3	16	0	1	0	128	180	170	350	43	157	30	6	156	-8	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2022	23	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	101	94	13	4	1	1	3	39	1	3	0	138	173	234	408	96	191	39	3	160	-6	-13	+1	—	—	+2	-1.0
2022	23	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	117	99	19	2	0	1	13	40	4	5	1	192	310	242	553	51	290	34	11	252	57	-6	+1	—	—	+3	-0.3
2023	24	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	239	213	41	8	2	5	16	84	6	13	5	192	268	319	587	127	278	35	7	259	61	-11	+1	—	—	+5	-0.5
2024	25	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	240	216	27	2	1	5	20	98	3	10	1	125	209	213	422	88	193	41	8	198	20	-23	+2	—	—	+5	-1.6
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates Gold	—	53	47	6	0	1	0	3	16	0	1	0	128	180	170	350	43	176	30	6	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates Gold	—	53	45	7	0	1	0	5	11	0	1	0	156	240	200	440	44	189	21	9	199	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	218	193	30	5	1	1	16	79	5	8	1	155	238	207	446	52	250	36	7	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	218	185	37	7	1	2	23	57	5	8	1	200	304	281	585	81	271	26	11	270	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	239	213	41	8	2	5	16	84	6	13	5	192	268	319	587	127	286	35	7	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	239	204	55	13	2	8	25	63	6	13	5	270	366	471	837	201	348	26	10	366	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	240	216	27	2	1	5	20	98	3	10	1	125	209	213	422	88	195	41	8	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	240	206	36	3	1	8	30	75	3	10	1	175	289	316	604	141	228	31	12	279	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates Gold	—	53	50	6	0	1	0	3	16	0	1	0	120	180	160	340	40	157	30	6	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	218	195	30	5	1	1	16	79	5	8	1	154	238	205	443	51	244	36	7	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	239	215	41	8	2	5	16	84	6	13	5	191	268	316	584	126	278	35	7	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	240	215	27	2	1	5	20	98	3	10	1	126	209	214	423	88	193	41	8	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	239	215	41	8	2	5	16	84	6	13	5	191	268	316	584	126	278	35	7	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	240	215	27	2	1	5	20	98	3	10	1	126	209	214	423	88	193	41	8	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	27	MLB MLE	PIT	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		259	33	11	258	61	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	PIT	26%	129	116	23	4	1	3	11	39	1	3	1	198	273	328	601	129	262	30	9	264	65	-5	+0	-1	-1	+3	-0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	PIT	26%	34	31	6	1	0	1	3	10	0	1	0	194	265	323	587	129	260	29	9	251	65	-1	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	34	31	6	1	0	1	3	10	0	1	0	194	265	323	587	129	250	29	9	251	38	-1	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	114	19	0	19	57	191	0	19	0	192	263	320	583	128	248	29	9	251	38	-27	+4	-4	-4	+14	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	888	793	128	19	6	14	67	319	15	35	8	161	240	253	493	92	243	36	8	225	38	-6	+0	-1	-1	+3	-0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	93	14	4	10	49	234	11	26	6	160	239	250	489	90	242	36	8	225	38	-28	+1	-3	-4	+14	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Brown (OGILVIE)	27	20	43	53	51	186/263/300	114	259	2	2	31%	8%	61	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Connor Hoover 2023 · AA	27	34→30	46→50	50	44	180/256/309	130	256	14	12	34%	9%	60	-1.6	194/270/319	125	275	14	12	33%	8%	68	-1.0	163/251/289	126	221	17	12	33%	9%	52	-1.1
✕Ryan Aguilar 2022 · AA	27	36→41	42→45	51→50	41	177/263/272	95	295	11	13	41%	9%	55	-2.0	208/301/333	125	331	13	13	37%	10%	82	+0.0	220/323/371	151	334	16	13	35%	12%	95	+0.6
✕Mark Contreras 2021 · AA	26	36→38	43→50	47→55	38	183/247/294	111	267	11	13	34%	6%	53	-2.1	200/261/334	134	292	15	19	35%	6%	68	-1.0	196/258/325	129	284	15	24	35%	6%	61	-1.1
✕Brian O'Grady 2018 · AA	26	36→38	43→55	54→50	47	182/267/294	112	258	10	14	32%	10%	61	-1.5	212/274/375	163	286	18	14	31%	7%	82	-0.0	208/271/384	177	275	20	15	31%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Jake Means 2023 · AA	27	35→32	46→45	51→45	43	183/260/311	127	264	14	9	35%	8%	62	-1.4	186/255/300	114	261	13	10	32%	8%	57	-1.8	133/209/225	92	172	14	8	32%	7%	22	-1.9
✕McCarthy Tatum 2023 · AA	27	36→25	44→50	49→50	35	186/241/304	118	277	12	9	36%	5%	53	-2.1	214/275/326	112	297	10	10	30%	5%	70	-0.8	213/284/304	91	290	6	9	26%	4%	67	-0.3
✕Patrick Dorrian 2023 · AAA	27	37→38	48→50	47→45	42	191/262/331	140	285	16	6	37%	8%	68	-1.0	192/256/321	129	288	15	7	37%	7%	63	-1.4	176/241/298	122	260	15	5	37%	7%	49	-1.4
✕Seth Fortenberry 2010 · AA	26	37→43	44→45	51→50	42	185/259/301	116	276	11	10	35%	8%	59	-1.7	192/256/293	101	310	7	9	37%	7%	55	-1.9	161/217/252	92	301	0	4	44%	7%	27	-0.7
✕Jackson Cluff 2023 · AA	26	36→30	40→45	48→60	36	177/241/266	89	277	7	11	37%	6%	45	-2.7	186/269/301	115	281	11	21	35%	9%	63	-1.4	179/271/301	122	264	12	28	34%	10%	62	-0.8
✕Jason Cooper 2008 · AAA	27	42→38	47→50	51→45	43	210/271/357	147	279	13	9	29%	7%	76	-0.4	211/281/340	129	269	10	8	24%	8%	76	-0.4	205/288/337	132	247	11	3	21%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Jake Lowery 2017 · AA	27	37	42→45	47→30	44	184/253/289	105	259	9	5	32%	8%	54	-2.0	195/267/298	103	310	9	6	37%	9%	61	-1.5	127/205/187	61	257	4	0	48%	9%	12	-1.1
✕Colin Simpson 2023 · A	27	40	46→45	52→40	40	203/255/332	128	279	14	7	32%	6%	64	-1.3	204/262/326	122	297	12	6	33%	7%	65	-1.2	171/236/292	121	253	11	0	35%	8%	45	-1.0
✕Gabe Snyder 2021 · A	26	40→36	47→50	46→40	41	206/267/338	132	281	15	5	31%	7%	70	-0.8	211/284/352	141	302	15	8	33%	8%	80	-0.2	172/266/338	166	236	18	7	33%	10%	68	-0.3
✕Justin Toerner 2023 · AAA	26	40	42→40	48→50	45	194/288/297	103	292	10	10	34%	9%	70	-0.8	194/284/310	116	283	12	11	33%	10%	71	-0.8	127/239/235	107	174	13	9	33%	12%	38	-1.1
✕Camden Duzenack 2021 · AA	26	35→36	46→50	48→50	39	184/244/306	122	245	15	10	31%	6%	55	-2.0	208/254/339	131	279	15	10	30%	5%	65	-1.2	211/259/339	128	274	14	10	28%	5%	64	-0.6
✕Jameson Fisher 2021 · AA	27	40→37	40→45	44→45	42	191/261/284	93	292	8	6	35%	8%	55	-1.9	220/275/335	115	311	11	6	31%	7%	72	-0.7	236/286/368	132	312	14	2	28%	6%	80	-0.1
✕JJ Muno 2021 · A	27	42	40	52→60	42	202/276/295	93	290	7	16	31%	7%	64	-1.3	199/285/291	92	285	8	26	31%	7%	68	-1.0	183/277/263	81	265	8	35	31%	7%	56	-0.9
✕Shane Matheny 2022 · AA	26	39→41	43→45	47→50	41	191/258/297	106	298	10	6	38%	8%	57	-1.8	201/284/322	121	316	13	9	37%	10%	74	-0.6	190/280/310	120	295	13	9	37%	10%	67	-0.7
✕Adam Calderone 2011 · AAA	27	39→40	47→50	45	38	204/249/347	143	260	14	9	28%	5%	65	-1.2	204/250/330	126	266	12	12	27%	5%	61	-1.5	162/195/259	97	205	5	16	23%	4%	21	-1.0
✕Daniel Amaral 2023 · AA	26	41	45→40	48→55	42	208/268/333	125	282	13	14	30%	7%	70	-0.9	232/303/339	107	302	9	27	24%	8%	84	+0.1	241/321/332	91	311	6	48	22%	9%	86	+0.1