Cameron Weston
P
Norfolk Tides
+0.6
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.0 · 2028
ERA4.73
FIP4.73
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.8%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%9.8%
IP119
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2028
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 5 | 0 | 11 | 43 | 11 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.18 | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 13 | 3 | 43 | 182 | 50 | 13 | 1 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 0.8% | 3.35 | 2.68 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 27 | 18 | 109 | 440 | 127 | 32 | 11 | 23.2% | 8.1% | 2.4% | 2.97 | 3.46 | +2.3 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 29 | 26 | 135 | 605 | 133 | 71 | 16 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.70 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 4 | 1 | 11 | 51 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 24.2% | 12.4% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 2.62 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | BAL | 22 | 22 | 119 | 503 | 105 | 55 | 15 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.73 | 4.73 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 130 | 554 | 119 | 61 | 15 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 2.7% | 4.75 | 4.55 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 23 | 126 | 532 | 113 | 56 | 16 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.66 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 23 | 129 | 546 | 116 | 57 | 16 | 21.2% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.64 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 24 | 129 | 546 | 116 | 56 | 16 | 21.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.65 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 23 | 126 | 534 | 113 | 55 | 16 | 21.1% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.68 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 22 | 22 | 123 | 518 | 108 | 54 | 16 | 20.9% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.74 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 22 | 22 | 118 | 499 | 103 | 53 | 16 | 20.7% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.82 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 21 | 21 | 114 | 480 | 98 | 51 | 16 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 4.90 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 20 | 20 | 108 | 458 | 92 | 50 | 15 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.94 | 5.00 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 19 | 103 | 435 | 86 | 48 | 15 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 5.04 | 5.11 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 18 | 18 | 97 | 410 | 79 | 46 | 15 | 19.3% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 5.16 | 5.23 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 17 | 17 | 91 | 384 | 73 | 44 | 14 | 18.9% | 11.6% | 3.7% | 5.28 | 5.37 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 78 | 48 | 310 | 1321 | 283 | 134 | 31 | 21.4% | 10.2% | 2.4% | 3.81 | 3.88 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 31 | 200 | 853 | 183 | 87 | 20 | 21.4% | 10.2% | 2.4% | 3.81 | 3.88 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cameron Weston (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.73 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.65 | 21.2% | 10.7% | 385 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.93 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 3.6% | .286 | 5.22 | 16.8% | 4.4% | 61 | +0.29 | 4.24 | 367 | 88 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.76 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 309 | -0.47 | 3.22 | 907 | 88 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 87 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 87 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.02 | 19.7% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .319 | 4.03 | 23.9% | 13.7% | 166 | -0.99 | 3.98 | 481 | 87 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .284 | 3.50 | 22.7% | 14.3% | 84 | -1.40 | 3.50 | 368 | 86 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 86 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 86 |
| Ariel Peña R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 86 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 85 |
| Félix Peña R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .296 | 3.80 | 24.0% | 15.6% | 263 | +0.08 | 2.67 | 615 | 85 |
| Trent Sellers R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.51 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 178 | 85 |
| Corey Baker R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 1.5% | .295 | 5.02 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 170 | +1.25 | 3.08 | 267 | 85 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 85 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.4% | 13.7% | 3.7% | .277 | 6.22 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 12 | +0.84 | 4.02 | 262 | 84 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.70 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .309 | 3.24 | 21.0% | 14.2% | 101 | -0.46 | 1.87 | 210 | 84 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 84 |
| Kyle Dowdy R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.52 | 18.7% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .344 | 4.88 | 18.4% | 4.5% | 125 | +0.36 | 2.98 | 606 | 84 |
| J.P. France R 2025 · 5.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.33 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.6% | .285 | 4.26 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -1.07 | 4.07 | 530 | 83 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.0 | $8M | +$8M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| Totals | $7M | $30M | +$23M | ||