Luis Vega prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Luis Vega P FCL Astros

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 165 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%23.2%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%12.9%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros	14	2	30	128	33	11	1	14%	2.2	17.5%	10.7%	6.8%	1.1%	2.67	3.58	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Astros	14	2	30	128	33	11	1	14%	2.2	25.8%	8.6%	17.2%	0.8%	2.67	2.44	—
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	5	52	231	54	25	4	29%	3.1	16.5%	13.2%	3.3%	2.2%	5.50	4.57	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	5	52	231	54	25	4	29%	3.1	23.4%	10.8%	12.6%	1.7%	5.50	3.46	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros Blue	12	7	45	207	43	23	10	58%	3.8	14.1%	13.9%	0.2%	6.4%	5.80	7.18	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Astros Blue	12	7	45	207	43	23	10	58%	3.8	20.8%	11.1%	9.7%	4.8%	5.80	5.61	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	13	1	29	126	39	13	2	8%	2.2	21.0%	12.9%	8.2%	1.6%	4.97	3.84	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	13	1	29	126	39	13	2	8%	2.2	21.0%	12.9%	8.2%	1.6%	4.97	3.84	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	13	1	29	126	39	13	2	8%	2.2	31.0%	10.3%	20.6%	1.6%	4.97	2.65	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	HOU	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.2%	10.3%	12.9%	3.0%	4.47	4.47	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	HOU	19	0	20	84	20	8	3	0%	1.1	23.6%	9.8%	13.8%	3.0%	4.40	4.36	+0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	HOU	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.6%	9.8%	13.8%	3.0%	4.40	4.36	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	9	4	1	0%	1.1	23.6%	9.8%	13.8%	3.0%	4.40	3.98	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	211	94	23	0%	1.1	23.6%	9.8%	13.8%	3.0%	4.40	3.98	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		56	15	157	692	116	89	22	27%	2.8	16.8%	12.9%	3.9%	3.1%	4.94	5.03	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	19	200	883	148	114	28	27%	2.8	16.8%	12.9%	3.9%	3.1%	4.94	5.03	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Vega (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	23.2%	10.3%	3.0%	—	4.36	23.6%	13.8%	20	-0.11	—	—	—
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	83
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	82
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	80
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	80
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	80
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	79
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	78
Liam Simon R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SW	3.27	26.6%	11.9%	1.6%	.362	5.97	19.7%	-6.0%	84	+2.70	3.27	105	78
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	78
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	77
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	77
Carlo Reyes R 2022 · 4.06 FIP	24	SW	4.06	20.4%	8.6%	2.9%	.318	3.92	24.1%	12.9%	61	-0.14	2.60	229	76
Luis Contreras R 2019 · 3.59 FIP	23	SW	3.59	26.4%	12.8%	2.0%	.302	3.13	26.8%	14.4%	42	-0.46	3.13	258	76
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	76
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	75
Jake Lyons R 2023 · 4.13 FIP	24	SW	4.13	20.1%	8.5%	3.0%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	174	75
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	75
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	75
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	75
Kyle Bischoff R 2023 · 5.26 FIP	24	SU	5.26	23.6%	11.8%	4.8%	.240	3.83	21.8%	8.7%	140	-1.43	3.21	162	74