Thomas Gavello — OGILVIE

Thomas GavelloC Sacramento River Cats

Age 25 L/R 5'9" / 191 lbs AAA HR -8%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION212 act + 141 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.158 / .242 / .261

PA141

HR3

K%35

BB%7

BABIP229

ISO103

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER60

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	ROK	ACL Giants Black	—	33	26	3	0	0	1	3	17	3	0	0	115	281	231	512	115	222	52	9	206	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	ROK	ACL Giants Black	—	33	25	5	0	0	1	4	12	3	0	0	200	375	320	695	120	308	36	12	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A	2 teams	—	369	310	52	9	2	11	24	159	32	7	2	168	295	316	611	148	289	43	7	262	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A	2 teams	—	369	297	71	13	2	11	37	108	32	7	2	239	383	407	790	168	333	29	10	360	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	304	268	31	5	0	4	22	156	13	9	2	116	218	179	397	63	248	51	7	188	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	304	254	49	8	0	7	36	104	13	9	2	193	323	307	631	114	292	34	12	297	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	3 teams	—	358	318	64	15	1	11	19	142	12	8	1	201	272	358	631	157	312	40	5	271	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	3 teams	—	358	310	78	18	1	14	27	113	12	8	1	252	335	452	787	200	340	32	8	341	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	AAA	SF	—	212	183	30	5	1	4	18	68	6	6	0	164	261	268	529	104	230	32	8	238	40	-14	+1	+0	+4	+6	-0.3
YTD	25	AAA	SF	—	212	175	34	6	1	5	26	53	6	6	0	194	319	326	645	131	244	25	12	293	83	-4	+1	+0	+4	+6	0.7
ROS	25	AAA	SF	10%	141	126	20	4	0	3	10	50	4	3	0	158	242	261	503	103	245	35	7	250	49	-8	+1	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
ROS	25	MLB	SF	10%	14	13	1	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	77	143	77	220		240	36	7	224	30	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	25	AAA	SF	—	226	196	31	5	1	4	19	73	6	6	0	158	253	255	508	97	223	32	8	237	40	-15	+1	+0	+4	+6	-0.4
TOT	25	AAA	SF	—	353	309	50	9	1	7	28	118	10	9	0	162	253	265	518	103	230	33	8	243	44	-22	+2	+0	+6	+10	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	SF	35%	363	324	58	11	1	10	26	124	10	7	1	179	261	312	573	133	253	34	7	265	61	-16	+1	+0	+6	+10	0.2
2028	27	MLB	SF	44%	386	344	64	12	1	11	29	129	10	8	1	186	269	323	592	137	256	33	8	269	64	-16	+1	+0	+7	+11	0.4
2029	28	MLB	SF	49%	400	357	67	13	1	11	30	132	10	8	1	188	270	322	592	134	258	33	8	271	66	-16	+1	-1	+7	+11	0.3
2030	29	MLB	SF	50%	400	356	67	13	1	11	31	132	10	7	1	188	272	323	595	135	258	33	8	270	65	-16	+1	-1	+7	+11	0.2
2027	26	MLB	SF	35%	126	113	19	4	0	3	9	43	3	3	0	168	248	283	531	115	248	34	7	240	42	-8	+1	+0	+2	+4	-0.2
2028	27	MLB	SF	44%	170	151	28	5	1	5	13	57	4	3	0	185	268	331	599	146	251	34	8	245	46	-10	+1	+0	+3	+5	-0.2
2029	28	MLB	SF	49%	196	174	32	6	1	5	15	65	5	4	0	184	268	316	584	132	253	33	8	248	48	-12	+1	-0	+4	+6	-0.2
2030	29	MLB	SF	50%	200	178	33	6	1	5	15	66	5	4	0	185	268	315	582	129	253	33	8	247	48	-12	+1	-1	+4	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	706	629	113	21	3	18	53	236	17	14	0	180	262	308	570	129	251	33	8	245	46	-43	+3	-1	+13	+20	-0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	104	19	3	17	49	217	16	13	0	180	263	311	574	131	249	33	8	245	46	-40	+3	-1	+12	+18	-0.8
Career	—			—	2754	2429	426	82	7	73	194	1041	104	57	9	175	265	305	570	130	265	38	7	258	55	-139	+8	-2	+49	+78	-0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	100	19	2	17	46	246	25	13	2	175	266	304	569	129	264	38	7	258	55	-33	+2	-0	+12	+18	-0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	ROK	ACL Giants Black	—	33	25	5	0	0	1	4	12	3	0	0	200	375	320	695	120	308	36	12	324	106	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	22	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	106	92	20	2	0	1	7	38	6	1	0	217	314	272	586	54	352	36	7	277	70	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.0
2023	22	A	San Jose Giants	—	263	205	51	11	2	10	30	70	26	6	2	249	410	468	878	220	325	27	11	394	159	+18	+0	—	—	+7	2.6
2024	23	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	304	254	49	8	0	7	36	104	13	9	2	193	323	307	631	114	292	34	12	297	85	-5	+1	—	—	+9	0.5
2025	24	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	197	168	44	9	1	9	18	64	6	2	1	262	354	488	842	226	354	32	9	363	136	+8	+0	—	—	+6	1.4
2025	24	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	99	88	23	6	0	3	6	29	2	3	0	261	323	432	755	170	351	29	6	326	108	+1	+1	—	—	+3	0.4
2025	24	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	62	54	11	3	0	2	3	20	4	3	0	204	295	370	665	167	281	32	5	298	86	-1	+1	—	—	+2	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	724	21	14	187	266	325	+13	+8	0.6	0.6
	/162	664	19	13	187	266	325	+11.9	+7.3	0.5	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Thomas Gavello (OGILVIE)	25	45	60	45	45	162/253/265	103	230	7	9	33%	8%	44	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ben Rortvedt 2023 · MLB	25	38	47→45	46→40	38	196/255/325	129	280	16	4	35%	6%	58	-1.2	208/286/325	117	284	13	5	29%	9%	72	-0.2	198/285/294	97	267	10	2	28%	9%	61	-0.4
✕Patrick Dorrian 2022 · AAA	26	40→39	46→55	47→45	40	198/263/328	131	302	14	6	38%	8%	63	-0.9	197/262/350	153	299	19	6	38%	7%	68	-0.5	181/248/332	150	266	20	5	39%	7%	54	-0.8
✕Fernando Perez 2019 · AA	25	40	50	43→30	36	212/253/357	145	280	18	4	32%	4%	66	-0.6	244/287/392	148	303	18	5	25%	5%	89	+0.9	257/296/415	158	310	21	1	24%	4%	98	+1.0
✕Brandon Barnes 2011 · AAA	25	37→47	50→55	47→50	35	199/243/349	150	275	18	8	34%	5%	59	-1.1	218/266/356	138	293	14	13	30%	5%	70	-0.3	236/281/354	118	320	11	16	29%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Kyle Reynolds 2009 · AA	25	40→42	49→50	44→45	37	211/248/356	145	273	17	6	30%	4%	63	-0.9	202/245/322	120	279	13	8	31%	5%	52	-1.6	117/149/194	77	162	8	4	34%	4%	-25	-1.3
✕Mitch Walding 2018 · AA	25	39→45	47→50	43→40	40	194/263/327	133	305	15	4	39%	8%	63	-0.9	199/295/355	156	336	19	4	42%	11%	83	+0.6	182/287/342	160	324	21	3	45%	12%	75	-0.0
✕Kevin Smith 2021 · AA	25	37→43	53→55	49→50	35	202/248/370	168	283	22	13	37%	5%	67	-0.5	205/258/363	158	283	19	15	33%	6%	69	-0.4	200/251/358	158	270	20	15	33%	6%	62	-0.6
✕Andy Yerzy 2023 · AA	25	33	49→50	49→40	43	183/264/328	145	254	18	5	35%	9%	63	-0.8	197/268/326	129	278	16	7	33%	8%	64	-0.8	164/234/276	112	269	17	3	44%	8%	33	-1.0
✕Roger Kieschnick 2012 · AA	25	40→46	47→55	47→45	36	208/245/344	136	281	15	9	32%	4%	58	-1.2	213/262/369	156	299	17	6	33%	6%	72	-0.2	204/258/362	158	283	17	4	33%	6%	66	-0.4
✕Dom Nuñez 2021 · MLB	26	37→44	48→45	46→45	44	193/268/331	138	261	17	8	32%	8%	66	-0.6	177/267/303	126	256	13	5	33%	10%	59	-1.1	135/237/231	96	217	10	3	39%	11%	27	-1.2
✕Wendell Rijo 2021 · AAA	25	42→41	46→55	44→50	41	211/263/337	126	275	14	7	28%	6%	64	-0.8	218/273/382	164	281	20	15	29%	6%	81	+0.4	213/270/389	176	264	23	19	28%	6%	78	+0.1
✕Kody Kirkland 2008 · AAA	25	33→41	50→55	45	35	182/242/335	153	260	17	9	36%	5%	56	-1.3	194/253/315	121	277	12	10	33%	6%	54	-1.4	186/246/291	105	264	10	9	32%	6%	43	-1.4
✕Kody Eaves 2018 · AAA	25	39→43	45	48→50	39	198/250/325	127	280	12	10	33%	6%	56	-1.3	190/241/299	109	273	10	7	32%	6%	45	-2.1	172/224/272	100	248	9	4	33%	6%	29	-2.3
✕Carter Aldrete 2023 · AA	25	41→40	49→50	42→45	39	212/262/357	145	288	18	7	33%	6%	69	-0.4	205/251/344	139	284	17	5	33%	6%	61	-1.0	185/226/315	130	252	17	1	34%	5%	40	-1.3
✕Will Robertson 2023 · AA	25	38→42	47→55	39→45	38	193/259/328	135	287	15	4	36%	7%	61	-1.0	201/261/363	162	288	19	6	36%	7%	71	-0.3	197/260/362	165	276	20	5	35%	7%	68	-0.4
✕Jalen Miller 2022 · AA	25	35→43	50	47→50	38	193/240/343	150	255	19	12	33%	6%	56	-1.3	208/274/348	140	284	15	15	30%	8%	72	-0.2	193/271/328	135	257	13	20	29%	9%	61	-0.6
✕Bruce Caldwell 2017 · AAA	25	44→45	44→45	47→40	42	211/273/328	117	310	11	4	34%	8%	66	-0.6	202/266/307	105	305	11	3	35%	8%	57	-1.2	188/253/288	100	280	11	2	35%	7%	46	-1.4
✕John Whittleman 2012 · AA	25	34→43	49→50	43→45	47	186/261/332	146	246	17	3	32%	9%	63	-0.8	198/288/354	156	295	17	5	36%	11%	80	+0.4	170/286/335	165	260	18	1	38%	14%	73	-0.1
✕Eduardo Diaz 2022 · AA	25	38→44	50	51→50	35	202/248/350	149	274	19	13	34%	4%	62	-0.9	208/253/335	127	294	13	13	33%	4%	59	-1.1	203/244/323	120	284	10	14	32%	4%	48	-1.4
✕Drew Robinson 2016 · AAA	24	36→40	50→55	48→50	45	190/268/346	156	268	17	12	35%	9%	69	-0.4	213/285/388	175	304	20	12	35%	9%	87	+0.8	213/286/393	179	309	20	12	36%	9%	85	+0.5