Dilan Rosario — OGILVIE

Dilan RosarioSS Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 185 lbs AA BB -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.3 · 2028

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .267 / .310

PA136

HR3

K%32

BB%7

MLB%2%

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$-4M	-$7M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	AZL Giants Black	201	191	24	5	1	3	7	104	0	9	3	.126	.157	.209	.366	.084	.241	52	3	.159	-20	-27	+1	+0	+2	+6	-1.9
2021	20	ROK	ACL Giants Black	178	165	21	3	2	1	12	90	0	1	3	.127	.186	.188	.374	.061	.267	51	7	.164	-16	-23	-1	+0	+2	+5	-1.8
2022	21	A	3 teams	415	369	55	9	1	3	37	189	4	5	6	.149	.234	.203	.437	.054	.291	46	9	.208	17	-39	-1	+0	+4	+12	-2.5
2023	22	A	San Jose Giants	225	210	38	6	1	3	8	92	4	7	2	.181	.225	.262	.487	.081	.297	41	4	.221	27	-18	+1	+0	+2	+6	-0.9
2024	23	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	97	85	15	2	1	1	11	36	0	4	1	.176	.271	.259	.530	.082	.286	37	11	.226	31	-8	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	MLB	SF	136	124	26	5	1	3	10	43	1	3	1	.210	.274	.339	.613	.129	.285	32	7	.263	60	-6	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB 11%	SF	231	209	43	8	1	5	18	71	2	4	1	.206	.275	.325	.600	.120	.287	31	8	.275	68	-8	+0	+0	+2	+7	0.1
2028	27	MLB 26%	SF	291	263	56	10	2	7	23	88	3	5	1	.213	.284	.346	.630	.133	.288	30	8	.278	71	-9	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.3
2029	28	MLB 38%	SF	332	299	64	12	2	8	27	100	3	6	1	.214	.286	.348	.634	.134	.288	30	8	.280	72	-10	+1	-1	+4	+9	0.3
2030	29	MLB 47%	SF	350	316	67	12	2	8	28	106	3	5	1	.212	.282	.339	.621	.127	.287	30	8	.279	71	-11	+1	-1	+4	+10	0.2
2031	30	MLB 56%	SF	362	327	69	13	2	8	29	111	3	5	1	.211	.281	.336	.618	.125	.286	31	8	.276	69	-13	+1	-2	+4	+10	-0.0
2032	31	MLB 66%	SF	355	320	66	12	2	7	29	110	3	3	0	.206	.278	.322	.600	.116	.284	31	8	.272	66	-14	+1	-3	+4	+10	-0.2
2033	32	MLB 84%	SF	342	309	63	11	2	7	27	108	3	1	0	.204	.274	.320	.595	.117	.282	32	8	.267	63	-14	+0	-4	+4	+10	-0.4
2034	33	MLB	SF	315	284	57	10	2	6	25	101	3	0	0	.201	.272	.313	.586	.113	.281	32	8	.262	59	-15	+0	-4	+3	+9	-0.7
2035	34	MLB	SF	273	247	48	9	1	5	22	90	2	0	0	.194	.266	.300	.565	.105	.279	33	8	.256	54	-14	+0	-5	+3	+8	-0.9
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4103	3718	712	127	23	75	313	1439	34	58	21	.192	.261	.299	.559	.107	.286	35	8	.251	50	-231	+3	-20	+44	+116	-8.9
/ 162G	—			650	589	113	20	4	12	50	228	5	9	3	.192	.261	.301	.561	.109	.286	35	8	.251	50	-37	+1	-3	+7	+18	-1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	AZL Giants Black	201	187	40	9	2	5	11	72	0	9	3	.214	.258	.364	.621	.150	.310	36	5	.272	66	-8	+1	—	—	+6	-0.1
2021	20	ROK	ACL Giants Black	178	158	33	5	3	2	19	59	0	1	3	.209	.294	.316	.610	.108	.316	33	11	.278	71	-6	-1	—	—	+5	-0.2
2022	21	A	San Jose Giants	195	162	35	2	1	2	28	59	3	4	3	.216	.342	.278	.620	.062	.324	30	14	.294	83	-4	-0	—	—	+6	0.1
2022	21	ROK	ACL Giants Black	120	104	23	8	0	2	15	41	1	1	2	.221	.325	.356	.681	.135	.344	34	12	.312	97	-0	-1	—	—	+3	0.2
2022	21	INTL	RA12	100	89	15	2	1	1	8	29	0	0	1	.169	.237	.247	.484	.079	.233	29	8	.218	25	-8	-0	—	—	+3	-0.6
2023	22	A	San Jose Giants	225	207	52	9	2	4	11	65	4	7	2	.251	.302	.372	.674	.121	.340	29	5	.299	87	-3	+1	—	—	+6	0.4
2024	23	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	97	81	15	2	1	1	15	29	0	4	1	.185	.312	.272	.584	.086	.269	30	15	.275	69	-3	+0	—	—	+3	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dilan Rosario (OGILVIE)	25	—	—	—	—	.200/.267/.310	.110	.285	3	3	32%	7%	60	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Maverick Handley 2023 · AA	25	40	45	51→50	44	.199/.282/.323	.124	.278	13	13	32%	8%	70	-0.3	.204/.293/.301	.097	.284	9	11	29%	9%	69	-0.4	.196/.289/.271	.075	.275	6	10	28%	9%	57	-0.6
✕Willie MacIver 2022 · AA	25	36→35	45	51→55	38	.187/.245/.306	.118	.262	14	14	33%	6%	50	-1.8	.203/.276/.332	.129	.299	15	15	35%	8%	69	-0.4	.230/.309/.359	.129	.323	13	18	30%	8%	87	+0.4
✕Cam Devanney 2022 · AA	25	36→42	41→55	45	40	.183/.249/.273	.090	.263	9	8	32%	6%	43	-2.2	.213/.275/.368	.155	.278	18	7	29%	7%	78	+0.2	.219/.282/.386	.166	.279	19	7	28%	7%	82	+0.4
✕Brandon Hicks 2011 · AAA	25	37→40	46→50	51→50	38	.193/.251/.319	.126	.276	14	14	35%	6%	55	-1.4	.200/.261/.341	.141	.304	17	11	38%	7%	65	-0.7	.192/.258/.339	.147	.301	18	10	40%	7%	59	-0.7
✕Yu Chang 2021 · MLB	25	43→44	46→50	47→45	41	.217/.273/.344	.128	.295	13	7	30%	6%	70	-0.3	.224/.278/.383	.159	.292	18	7	29%	6%	83	+0.6	.213/.268/.374	.161	.271	20	6	29%	6%	75	-0.0
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA	25	36	45→50	48→50	37	.186/.248/.306	.120	.290	14	12	39%	7%	50	-1.7	.185/.245/.287	.102	.286	9	10	36%	7%	43	-2.2	.153/.212/.244	.092	.224	3	6	32%	7%	14	-1.0
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA	25	39	43→45	43→45	46	.192/.280/.301	.108	.265	11	7	30%	9%	63	-0.8	.198/.277/.336	.138	.251	16	10	27%	7%	71	-0.3	.186/.266/.336	.150	.221	18	12	25%	7%	63	-0.5
✕Ryan Dorow 2021 · AA	25	42	42→45	49→45	39	.202/.266/.305	.102	.304	10	9	35%	6%	57	-1.2	.208/.272/.333	.125	.293	12	6	31%	7%	67	-0.5	.201/.266/.328	.127	.277	12	3	30%	7%	60	-0.7
✕J.E. Cruz 2006 · A	25	39→48	42→45	52→45	43	.195/.263/.294	.099	.270	10	12	30%	7%	53	-1.5	.210/.281/.310	.100	.285	7	8	27%	8%	65	-0.7	.207/.282/.309	.102	.279	6	6	26%	8%	63	-0.5
✕Blake Hunt 2023 · AA	24	38	43→50	49→40	38	.190/.248/.301	.111	.281	11	5	35%	6%	49	-1.8	.209/.266/.343	.134	.276	14	5	29%	6%	67	-0.5	.206/.268/.347	.141	.262	15	2	27%	6%	67	-0.3
✕Chase Strumpf 2022 · AA	24	42→35	44→50	48→45	44	.203/.282/.321	.118	.296	11	7	33%	8%	69	-0.4	.196/.293/.355	.159	.317	19	5	41%	10%	83	+0.6	.180/.284/.345	.165	.293	21	3	42%	11%	73	-0.1
✕Jacob Nottingham 2020 · MLB	25	37→47	43→45	48→50	37	.186/.255/.296	.110	.281	10	9	36%	6%	51	-1.7	.202/.271/.348	.146	.295	18	11	36%	6%	72	-0.2	.185/.263/.338	.153	.248	21	12	34%	6%	63	-0.4
✕Héctor Gómez 2013 · AA	25	39→43	45→55	54→50	36	.202/.238/.333	.131	.265	12	13	29%	4%	52	-1.6	.199/.234/.310	.111	.257	10	8	26%	4%	44	-2.1	.215/.246/.370	.155	.266	14	4	25%	3%	63	-0.4
✕Gunnar Heidt 2018 · AA	25	39→42	42→45	47→50	39	.194/.249/.297	.104	.281	10	12	34%	6%	48	-1.9	.200/.254/.303	.103	.309	9	13	36%	6%	51	-1.7	.206/.258/.305	.100	.300	8	9	32%	6%	50	-1.1
✕Corey Toups 2018 · AAA	25	44→47	43→45	55→50	40	.212/.271/.329	.117	.297	10	17	31%	6%	65	-0.7	.203/.266/.307	.104	.321	10	15	37%	7%	58	-1.2	.177/.247/.258	.081	.300	9	19	41%	7%	34	-1.3
✕Jake Rogers 2019 · AA	24	38→40	47→55	48→45	41	.196/.261/.330	.133	.269	15	9	32%	7%	62	-0.9	.203/.278/.366	.163	.280	20	6	33%	8%	79	+0.3	.206/.283/.412	.206	.265	29	1	33%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Mycal Jones 2012 · AA	25	42→46	44→45	50→55	42	.209/.269/.332	.122	.277	11	15	28%	6%	66	-0.6	.209/.266/.298	.089	.271	7	21	24%	6%	55	-1.4	.222/.282/.307	.085	.285	6	24	23%	7%	61	-0.6
✕Tim Tawa 2023 · AA	24	42→43	46→50	49→50	46	.211/.275/.332	.121	.266	14	12	26%	8%	68	-0.5	.209/.273/.344	.135	.272	16	11	28%	8%	71	-0.3	.204/.271/.351	.147	.261	18	12	28%	8%	69	-0.3
✕Wendell Rijo 2021 · AAA	25	42	45→55	43→50	42	.212/.265/.335	.123	.272	13	7	27%	6%	64	-0.8	.220/.277/.381	.161	.285	20	14	29%	6%	82	+0.5	.215/.275/.385	.170	.270	22	19	29%	6%	79	+0.2
✕Julio E. Rodriguez 2022 · AA	25	41	43→50	48→30	40	.209/.255/.311	.102	.271	12	5	27%	5%	54	-1.4	.208/.281/.344	.136	.285	18	5	32%	8%	75	-0.0	.188/.263/.325	.137	.254	20	1	33%	8%	59	-0.4

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)