Keoni Cavaco — OGILVIE

Keoni CavacoSS Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 195 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 76 proj PA

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .261 / .301

PA7

HR0

K%33

BB%7

ISO106

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	18	ROK	GCL Twins	—	92	87	15	4	0	1	4	35	1	1	1	172	217	253	470	80	275	38	4	215	32	-7	-0	—	—	+2	-0.6
2021	20	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	260	236	55	6	2	2	18	89	4	5	2	233	298	301	599	68	361	34	7	274	72	-9	+0	—	—	+6	-0.3
2022	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	396	368	85	18	5	11	22	138	2	7	4	231	278	397	675	166	332	35	6	296	86	-7	-0	—	—	+9	0.2
2023	22	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	222	202	39	4	0	5	18	88	2	1	0	193	266	287	553	94	312	40	8	255	59	-11	+0	—	—	+5	-0.6
2023	22	ROK	FCL Twins	—	16	15	5	1	1	0	0	5	0	0	0	333	333	533	867	200	500	31	0	351	124	+0	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2024	23	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	114	104	15	5	1	4	7	50	1	0	0	144	205	327	532	183	212	44	6	232	43	-8	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	—	92	89	9	2	0	1	2	50	1	1	1	101	130	157	288	56	216	54	2	123	-31	-14	-0	—	—	+2	-1.3
2021	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	260	241	38	4	2	1	13	124	4	5	2	158	213	203	416	46	306	48	5	191	15	-26	+0	—	—	+6	-2.1
2022	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	396	374	63	15	3	8	16	198	2	7	4	168	207	289	495	120	311	50	4	214	31	-33	-0	—	—	+9	-2.5
2023	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	222	207	25	2	0	3	13	122	2	1	0	121	180	174	354	53	273	55	6	165	-2	-27	+0	—	—	+5	-2.2
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	16	15	4	1	1	0	0	7	0	0	0	267	267	467	733	200	390	44	0	237	47	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2024	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	114	106	9	3	1	2	5	69	1	0	0	85	134	189	323	104	174	61	4	136	-22	-17	+0	—	—	+2	-1.4
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	—	92	89	9	2	0	1	2	50	1	1	1	101	130	157	288	56	211	54	2	123	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	GCL Twins	—	92	87	15	4	0	1	4	35	1	1	1	172	217	253	470	80	275	38	4	215	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	260	241	38	4	2	1	13	124	4	5	2	158	213	203	416	46	314	48	5	191	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	260	236	55	6	2	2	18	89	4	5	2	233	298	301	599	68	361	34	7	274	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	396	374	63	15	3	8	16	198	2	7	4	168	207	289	495	120	320	50	4	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	396	368	85	18	5	11	22	138	2	7	4	231	278	397	675	166	332	35	6	296	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	238	222	29	3	1	3	13	129	2	1	0	131	186	194	379	63	289	54	5	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	238	217	44	5	1	5	18	93	2	1	0	203	270	304	574	101	328	39	8	262	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	114	106	9	3	1	2	5	69	1	0	0	85	134	189	323	104	189	61	4	136	-22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	114	104	15	5	1	4	7	50	1	0	0	144	205	327	532	183	212	44	6	232	-22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	—	92	89	9	2	0	1	2	50	1	1	1	101	130	157	288	56	216	54	2	123	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	260	241	38	4	2	1	13	124	4	5	2	158	213	203	416	46	306	48	5	191	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	396	375	63	15	3	8	16	198	2	7	4	168	207	288	495	120	311	50	4	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	238	221	29	3	1	3	13	129	2	1	0	131	186	195	380	63	281	54	5	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	114	107	9	3	1	2	5	69	1	0	0	84	134	187	321	103	174	61	4	136	-22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	238	221	29	3	1	3	13	129	2	1	0	131	186	195	380	63	281	54	5	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	114	107	9	3	1	2	5	69	1	0	0	84	134	187	321	103	174	61	4	136	-22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	25	MLB MLE	MIN	0%	7	6	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	167	286	167	452		284	29	14	257	60	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIN	30%	129	117	25	5	1	3	10	41	1	2	1	214	281	350	632	137	285	32	8	267	67	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIN	42%	220	199	42	8	1	5	17	69	2	4	1	211	280	337	616	126	285	31	8	271	70	-8	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIN	48%	283	256	53	10	1	6	22	87	3	4	1	207	278	324	602	117	285	31	8	273	71	-10	+0	-1	+3	+6	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIN	49%	319	288	59	11	1	7	25	98	3	5	1	205	275	323	598	118	285	31	8	272	71	-11	+1	-1	+3	+7	-0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIN	50%	342	309	64	12	2	7	27	106	3	4	1	207	277	327	604	120	284	31	8	270	69	-13	+0	-2	+4	+7	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIN	30%	39	36	7	1	0	1	3	12	0	1	0	194	256	306	562	111	285	31	8	260	67	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIN	42%	92	84	17	3	0	2	7	29	1	2	0	202	272	310	581	107	285	32	8	264	70	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIN	48%	135	123	26	5	1	3	10	42	1	2	1	211	276	341	618	130	285	31	7	266	71	-5	+0	-0	+1	+3	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIN	49%	157	142	30	6	1	3	12	48	2	2	1	211	282	331	613	120	285	31	8	266	71	-6	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIN	50%	172	155	32	6	1	4	13	54	2	2	1	206	276	335	612	129	284	31	8	263	69	-6	+0	-1	+2	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	595	540	112	21	3	13	45	185	6	9	3	207	276	330	605	122	287	31	8	264	42	-21	+1	-2	+6	+13	-0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	122	23	3	14	49	202	7	10	3	207	276	327	603	120	286	31	8	264	42	-23	+1	-2	+7	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	2400	2207	392	73	13	43	151	973	22	33	12	178	237	281	518	103	289	41	6	231	42	-47	+2	-4	+14	+28	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	598	107	20	4	12	41	264	6	9	3	179	239	286	525	107	291	41	6	231	42	-24	+1	-2	+7	+14	-0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.9	595	12	9	207	273	326	+6	+6	0.1	0.1
/162	664	14	10	+7.1	+6.7	0.2	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Keoni Cavaco (OGILVIE)	25	—	—	—	—	195/261/301	105	284	1	1	33%	7%	60	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕JJ Schwarz 2021 · A	25	38	41→45	48→30	43	190/254/280	91	265	9	6	31%	7%	52	-2.2	214/281/329	115	298	12	3	30%	8%	73	-0.6	208/278/322	114	287	13	1	30%	9%	68	-0.5
✕Chris Williams 2022 · AA	25	37→32	44→55	50→40	44	178/267/295	117	306	11	6	42%	10%	61	-1.5	191/270/355	164	283	21	5	38%	9%	76	-0.4	176/260/345	169	249	23	4	38%	9%	68	-0.7
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA	25	36	43→50	48→50	38	180/243/288	107	283	11	11	39%	7%	50	-2.3	191/251/293	102	287	8	10	34%	7%	53	-2.1	154/212/246	92	221	3	6	30%	7%	25	-1.0
✕Toby Welk 2022 · AA	25	38→34	43→45	48→45	42	194/260/306	112	266	11	9	30%	7%	61	-1.5	205/263/313	108	295	10	7	32%	7%	63	-1.4	195/242/310	115	279	11	0	33%	5%	53	-0.6
✕Nick Vickerson 2014 · A	25	38	42→40	49→50	48	189/277/293	104	262	10	13	30%	10%	65	-1.2	203/300/302	99	285	9	11	29%	11%	76	-0.4	188/304/272	85	264	8	11	28%	12%	68	-0.6
✕Jayson Langfels 2014 · AA	25	42→34	43→40	46→50	37	203/264/308	105	309	11	11	36%	6%	62	-1.4	210/284/294	84	333	6	15	36%	8%	66	-1.1	209/291/277	68	340	4	17	36%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Blake Hunt 2023 · AA	24	38	42→45	50→40	39	192/251/296	104	277	10	5	33%	6%	55	-2.0	208/265/332	124	274	13	5	28%	6%	68	-1.0	208/275/351	144	265	17	1	28%	7%	74	-0.2
✕Ismael Alcantara 2023 · AA	24	38→29	45	50	37	194/252/314	121	284	13	12	35%	6%	59	-1.6	211/268/301	90	318	8	17	34%	6%	61	-1.5	217/275/286	69	332	7	24	34%	6%	57	-1.1
✕Willie MacIver 2022 · AA	25	37→35	45→50	51→55	39	190/251/306	117	268	13	16	34%	6%	57	-1.8	204/278/330	126	297	13	15	34%	8%	73	-0.6	231/310/361	130	325	12	18	30%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	39→40	49→50	44	177/255/257	79	269	8	14	35%	9%	48	-2.5	207/287/299	92	295	7	12	29%	9%	69	-0.9	212/301/305	93	294	5	13	27%	10%	75	-0.3
✕Drake Osborn 2023 · A	25	40	43→45	49→40	42	200/265/310	110	270	11	6	29%	7%	63	-1.4	190/246/297	107	260	12	4	31%	6%	53	-2.1	179/234/280	101	242	12	2	31%	5%	42	-1.3
✕Connor Kaiser 2022 · AA	25	37	43→45	47→50	44	189/257/298	109	258	11	5	31%	8%	57	-1.8	192/267/306	114	292	12	14	36%	9%	63	-1.3	172/260/273	101	275	11	16	38%	10%	51	-1.1
✕Maverick Handley 2023 · AA	25	39	44→40	50	44	196/280/314	118	270	12	12	31%	8%	70	-0.8	201/290/289	88	281	7	11	29%	9%	68	-1.0	190/279/259	68	265	4	8	27%	9%	56	-0.7
✕Tomas Duenas 2006 · A	25	38	43→50	52→40	36	192/245/300	108	282	12	8	35%	5%	53	-2.1	218/266/356	138	279	17	5	28%	5%	74	-0.5	217/264/361	144	266	19	2	26%	5%	71	-0.3
✕David Sheaffer 2019 · A	24	36	42→50	52→40	39	184/231/287	103	246	10	7	29%	5%	44	-2.8	211/256/331	120	295	12	5	31%	5%	64	-1.3	193/238/303	110	272	11	1	33%	5%	49	-0.7
✕Christian Sepulveda 2023 · A	25	41	44→50	51→55	35	203/258/332	128	293	11	10	33%	5%	65	-1.2	208/271/330	122	287	12	14	31%	5%	70	-0.8	186/256/313	128	243	15	21	29%	4%	59	-0.6
✕Cam Devanney 2022 · AA	25	36→41	40→50	44→45	40	179/245/262	83	256	8	7	32%	6%	45	-2.7	212/275/354	142	276	15	7	28%	7%	77	-0.3	214/279/364	149	276	16	7	27%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Camden Duzenack 2021 · AA	26	35→36	46→50	48→50	39	184/244/306	122	245	15	10	31%	6%	55	-2.0	208/254/339	131	279	15	10	30%	5%	65	-1.2	211/259/339	128	274	14	10	28%	5%	64	-0.6
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA	25	39	42→45	42→45	46	191/280/293	102	262	10	6	29%	9%	65	-1.2	199/277/327	128	250	14	10	25%	7%	72	-0.7	186/267/323	137	222	16	12	24%	7%	65	-0.7
✕Jason Lopez 2022 · AA	24	39	42→50	54→45	41	191/254/290	99	287	9	12	35%	8%	54	-2.0	206/269/313	107	301	10	9	33%	8%	65	-1.2	165/225/251	86	232	8	0	31%	7%	32	-0.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps